Member Info for ThinIce

I do genuinely hope no-one is being hit too hard here and can afford to hold on for the inevitable upturn. Personally I take faith in the fact that Octopus are no fools and will be expecting a significant return on their investment.

I think the MMs are largely to blame here. They were lifting the price to encourage sales so that they could meet the Octopus buy order and once the selling started it unfortunately didn't stop. Its now turn into a bit of a contagion. Hopefully this will be the last buy by Octopus and the price can settle down and eventually return to recent highs.

Very best of luck to all here (especially those that may be hurting).

I wonder whether he means:

‘We have a deal, but won’t be announcing it until the NY’

Or,

‘We don’t have a deal, but hope to announce one in the NY’

Probably the greatest news there has ever been in the whole history of news.

Not in relation to capital gains stt and that’s still an uncertainty (until Wednesday). That of course is directly linked to the buying and selling of stocks. I suspect like most there will be a significant increase, but the markets will care more about the certainty than the increased rate (short term).

I will be buying more prior to Wednesday and I am happy to share my purchase on this board.

In light of the obvious confusion here, should we reasonably expect a clarifying statement from the company?

Interesting amounts and price variations.

Thanks for your reply SV.

Can you tell me please who are our peers? I wasn't aware we had any, but any info you can give me would be helpful.

Cheers

TI

i only have two shares in my portfolio just now; hvo and polb (the latter by default and a further expensive top up at 13.9 ☹️).

i have £30k invested over both and my portfolio as of today is valued at £47k.

over the 5 years i’ve been invested, most would say that’s a pretty healthy return, but actually my two pension funds have done a lot better, as did my house over that same time before i sold it in july.

i am only saying this as i am wondering whether the risk her is actually worth it. the conservative estimates for growth by the company make me think not; but then we are on the acquisition trail which could be interesting.

i’m on a world tour just now as i retired in july having completed an earn out on a company sale, so there’s quite a lot of evaluation going on in my life.

i would however love to hear what you think - even you stt if you can possibly say something that you have not already said 100 times already😊

come on, let’s get this show back on the road and stop the ********.

cheers all.

ti.

Not sure I agree with that.

It’s not an oil prospector taking a punt on a piece of land or seabed, but it is a company that has a clinically proven product which is protected.

So to that extent, it is very much a business.

Personally I think its a 'steady as she goes' sort of a stock.

Its growing, but not exponentially and the revenue targets from the company have been relatively conservative. That said, we do have rather a large amount of cash and the board have indicated that we are on the acquisition trail. This in my mind is the best chance we have of significant share price growth over the next couple of years.

Morning stt1 (evening from Oz)

If you check back through my posting history, you will see that I rarely do either (i.e. post negative or positive information) as I don't have ready access to the information that other's do - hence why I am here. However, in the event that I did come across a piece of information that I thought might be of benefit to other posters (and I may have done so), I am pretty certain that I would not post it two to three times a day, every day for three months; to the extent that the board would be ruined for others.

I am happy to concede (as others have) that CF's decision to offload his entire holding at the time was of concern (and yes, a red flag). However, having heard other views (here and elsewhere), I have now concluded that this was necessary so that he could free up funds to invest elsewhere. As HVIVO have mentioned that they are on the acquisition trail, it could have been hard to do this in the future as he would have most likely been in possession of price sensitive information (relating to a potential deal).

As for Mo's options, I don't see this as a problem at all and I fully expect the company to issue further options to him to take him well into the future. On your other points, I don't see a slight slowing in percentage growth being an issue as margins have increased significantly and growth in any business is never a straight line up. I also see IIs buying in as a positive on the obvious assumption that they have done extensive research (far beyond what we are capable of as pi's).

As for customer's paying for the Canary Wharf re-fit. I honestly don't know what favorable terms (if any) they were given and whether this could be a problem for us in the future. I did ask the question at the last update but it was not delivered by the presenter. It was certainly announced by the company as a positive at the time, but I would hope this doesn't result in a conflict of interest which could prevent us being bought out in the future - this being my wish.

That's my position - if we had the answers, we wouldn't need to ask the questions...

Cheers

TI

Hi Hotchip

First rule of debate. You need to understand both sides of the argument, otherwise you are ill equipped to argue your point. He doesn’t have both sides, so he’s not worth listening to.

Cheers

TI

I see green flags here:

- Cathal Friel has bought in,

- There are no director’s options exercisable any time soon,

- Institutions are not buying in,

- The business model is not questionable,

- There is no margin growth,

- There is no income.

If you know… you know!

Good luck all 🙄😬

Hey Stt1

Thanks for looking out for us, but I think the people you really need to warn about all these red flags is Octopus Investments. Here is there number: 08003162295. I would ask for 'Head of Investments' or similar. I am sure they will be relieved you intervened before they waste any more of their investor's money.

Cheers TI

Hi SZ

The only problem with Institutions buying in the volumes they are (60%+) into a small cap like this, is that they reduce liquidity in the stock. We need liquidity as retail investors to buy in and out and ultimately make money.

The upside is that we can probably expect a 10/15% uplift year on year until we want out - unless there is an exceptional market event (i.e. buy-out/acquisition) That's OK with me BTW.

Cheers all

TI

I am still in and committed, but with cash burn versus a couple of patents, I am really not sure the current multiple is justified.

Happy to hear other's views.

Cheers

TI

Hey Halls

That's personally why I think Friel got out when he did. There was no reason for HVO to even mention their intention to go on the acquisition trail unless it was to draw a line in the sand. Friel then rightly exited shortly after. It would have been hard for him to find an appropriate window whilst simultaneously assuring the markets that he had no price sensitive information. He is now gone and we can hope for an M&A update soon.

I think personally this could be announced 10th September.

Cheers

TI

According to Simply Wall Street, as of July 2024, institutions owned some 61% of HVO's stock - can anyone confirm whether this is correct? There has certainly been a reduced liquidity in share transactions in recent months. Is this linked?

Hey Spuddy

All good thanks. Just mention of a potential announcement in September (from Mary) but nothing yet to back it up.

Cheers

TI.

Well, the only thing that the interims will tell us is the level of cash burn, since there is no revenue generation just yet (despite this being a future objective). So, unless I’m mistaken, there is not too much to look forward to in the interims.

I’m not being negative, but I’m just now sure why we are holding tight!?

Cheers

TI.