The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Msuk.int makes me laugh. Your charts won't help us without an RNS! no way this goes higher without confirmation. We look at the fundamentals rather than lines and curves. An RNS confirming we have 976k share in CDT and the SP rises. An RNS stating we can't exercise the option as the BoD have messed up and the opposite happens.
If we get no confirmation the option has been exercised the only logical explanation is they are not able to. Which means they missed the boat when the vwap was over $5 when the CDT SP tumbled. If that is the case the BoD have zero control on the situation and we are left hoping the vwap gets to $5 or more.
This is not good as we have effectively gambled £2.7m that the vwap will get back >$5 as we did not exercise the option when we could have.
This is MY opinion based on what facts we have been given by the BoD so far. There is no other reason the BoD have not exercised and show a healthy return on the investment. But i did say logical explanation and not much has been logical with this BoD, one only has to read an email from Brent to see the standards.
I guess the best way of looking at this is imagine you were looking to invest in VELA. Would you buy in looking from the outside? As mentioned by someone the market likes clarity and VELA is far from clear hence why the SP is approx half what is should/could be if it was clear!
Just to clarify a few things
- it is a VOLUME weighted average meaning that if today there was huge volume over $5 then the vwap would likely be over $5 so there is a possibility that we could exercise after today and get LESS than the 976000 maximum shares. It would depend on the vwap. EXAMPLE- if the vwap was $5.5 we would get $4.8m worth of shares at that price = 872,727 shares so when we exercise does definitely matter .
- commercialisation of AZ1656. From what I can gather and this is by no mean a given - The positive results of the Phase 2 trial were over 2 years ago of which we were told commercialisation would be almost immediately! 2 years on and no commercialisation the drug has not even had a phase 3 trial either. Secondly, i believe CDT have control of the drug and have said they will not pursue the drug for use in COVID which is our only hope of getting any royalties.
Quite the opposite! It's great to see CDT getting into the realms of the £4m option agreement. As long as we exercise and stat realising some of this profit our SP looks a steal. We have potentially 150% of our MCAp in one investment!
I agree, I would have thought any disposal which generates cash for the company would be notified by RNS especially if they have sold the lot. Even at the minimum SP of CDT that would have been $500k. Not huge money but certainly news worthy. Lets hope they haven't sold any yet though.