Member Info for THGambler

Yeah agreed, based on a very simple method of taking into account the closing prices of the last 10 days the average is less than $5, but as Dave has pointed out i don't think that is how it's calculated.

But if the average is below $5 there should be no delay in exercising the option to get the maximum amount of shares UNLESS the BoD know something we don't and our interest in AZ1656 is about to commercialise to an extent we get more than the potential £4m we agreed with CDT.

Having a bad day Joe? Very negative

Thats right Volvie, a low SP in CDT isn't the end of the world. There is opportunity here like you say, lets exercise the option for the maximum shares we could possibly get of 960,000. Once exercised we will then have a value of this investment to attribute in our investment portfolio.

Obviously if the CDT SP continues this slide it won't be ideal but we have seen a lot of volatility in the SP.

Only problem is it would need our BoD to be paying attention if the SP heads higher for a short amount of time to sell some shares!

Looks like we should be exercising that option next week of the CDT sp remains so low. Highest volume day yesterday there yesterday as well. So with 960,000 shares it will be a waiting game for the SP to hopefully rise above $5.

You could open a savings account and get 5% yes. But instead you invest your money in stocks. Most of which i predict have definitely not yielded a 5% return.

With respect Joe, no you can't.

I wouldn't disagree with that strategy Dave. Lets face it a 5% return would represent a fantastic return based on recent investments which are all down!

It's fairly simple. If we exercise at the lowest possible $5. Then we get 960,000 shares in CDT. We have £2.75m invested in this which includes the PUT option fee. To get our money back would be selling all our shares (providing we have exercised based on the above) at $3.44. Obviously that wouldn't be ideal but gives us breathing space for now.

This is dire even for VELA. a circa £4m uplift and the SP looks to be headed below 0.02

Obviously i do not know everyone circumstance but I can't imagine why anyone would need to sell currently! AIM really has no logic

I think the risk is our BoD!

Yeah that's correct. so if the vwap is $4 we can only exercise at $5 for example. DUe to the time we have it would be nice if the vwap was low and CDT release some news that makes the SP climb and we exercise our option nicely below the SP! so many scenarios that could play out though!

Yeah I'm in agreement with that vwap estimate deacs.

This is critical how the BoD play this out, we have until Feb to exercise so there is no rush especially while the vwapis so far above the current sp...

So giving away some shares in your company 'doesn't really count' lol!.

Anyway the difference is VELA have not exercised their option so still have some degree of control. Yes, if they exercised when CIZ did then that's a howler, they also have until Feb to exercise the option so will potentially have longer to see the lay of the land before exercising the option.

Secondly as per RNS: The Economic Interest and Royalty Sharing Agreement were valued at cost, totalling £2,080,000, in the Company's 2022 interim results to 30 June 2022, announced on 28 September 2022. No profits or revenues were attributable to the assets subject to the Option. The Option is exercisable solely at the discretion of Cizzle and Cizzle has agreed to pay Conduit £120,000 in cash as the premium for the Option, which has a nine-month term.

I know the Conduit SP is ever changing but currently the shares are worth circa £1.95m so would represent a loss of over £100k if sold now. And lets not pretend CIZ will be able to sell $2m worth of share with out making the share price fall....

From the RNS:

Cizzle exercised its Option on 26 September 2023 and once this has been settled, the Company is expected to hold 395,460 shares in the NASDAQ listed business with no restrictions.

One would assume this has not been settled yet.... so highly unlikely they are one of the institutional investors having sold. Assumptions work both ways...

Yeah they way i see it is if the CDT SP falls below $5 and the vwap goes below $5 then we can't get it wrong as the lowest we can exercise at is $5 which would be the best possible price possible for us. then it would be a waiting game for the CDT SP to hopefully recover. I still think we should leave the majority in CDT as Hereshopin said, its better there than our BoD investing in some more howlers.

Apologies i thought they would have the same terms for a PUT option as VELA but appears they don't (to their detriment unfortunately):

Should Cizzle exercise the Option, Conduit will acquire both the Economic Interest and Royalty Sharing Agreement from Cizzle for a total consideration of approximately £3.25 million, to be satisfied through the issuance of new shares in Conduit (the "Consideration Shares") at the same price per Conduit share that a proposed US$27 million private investment round in Conduit, led by new and existing investors of Conduit (the "PIPE Investment"), is to be effected at, as further described below.

I don't think people should be judging others when they have concerns over a £3.25m option being valued at £1.88m (currently). That represents less than the option and interest in AZ1656 cost the company, would have been better off not investing in it!

If CIZ have time to hold until the SP recovers to better levels then great, but most on here seemed to think that represent needed funding so would imply they don't have the luxury of time to wait.

Agreed. The closer we can exercise the option to $5 the better and get maximum shares. We could sell some for working capital then sit on the rest until the SP increases (hopefully).

Out of hours SP for CDT is 4.05 currently. Makes the shares worth $1.6m.

They do t have at least £3.25m though that's the point. Their shares are worth £2.1m currently. In their rush to exercise the option they have cost themselves over £1m. Granted, if the SP of CDt increases they will get near to their original 3.25 but equally if that happens and they had waited then the 3.25m could have been worth more.