Member Info for TheTrotsky

I think their advance dividend guidance has been poor. The annual dividend has always been weighted towards H2 and, after the 5.4p cut at the end of FY25, I thought that the dividend had already been rebased to account for the new paradigm.

Accordingly, I'd been factoring in an annual dividend of c7.25p for FY26. However, following this latest cut, I now anticipate a further cut to the final dividend and an annual dividend of c5p now seems more likely. IMHO it would have been better to get it over with all in one go rather than death by a thousand cuts.

I don't think I'm alone in being disappointed.

It's being listed in the US and won't commence trading until 2:30pm on Friday afternoon, when the US markets open.

Any particular ETFs you can advise?

Beamer, I don't disagree that the investment approaches between the UK and US appear to be different but, even on a "US valuation basis", FTC has already blown out all the stops! Go compare it with its US peers (the last time I checked its metrics were double any of its US peers and although FTC's sales/profits are expected to continue growing from FY27 onwards nobody is predicting the exponential growth that such metrics might otherwise warrant).

I also say "appears" because I've long held the belief that the US market is out of kilter with other world markets in part due to the wall of money that's been flooding into the US market from around the world. We've ended up with too much money chasing too few opportunities (demand outstripping supply). The SpaceX IPO, plus the upcoming Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs, are expected to absorb huge amounts of capital and investment managers are now concerned that something else is going to have to give i.e. that the wall of money will start to dry up, investors are going to start realising other investments to invest in these IPOs and that the rush to exit could turn into a stampede, which might explain why the smart money has been exiting FTC, and similar shares, sooner than many of us originally expected. A market adjustment is, unfortunately, long overdue; we have war in Ukraine and Iran, oil prices are up, economies are, at best, in the doldrums, tariffs and protectionism are all on the rise, shadow banking is threatening to cause another financial crisis and yet, despite all of these potential red flags, markets are continuing to rise! The bell hops are out in force but everybody is choosing to ignore them!

How can you oversell something that's not worth the current asking price? I'm one of FTC's biggest fans but sold last week to lock in a low 6-figure profit on a low 4-figure original investment. I fully understand all of the hype about SpaceX but at some point reality will set in.

At some point in the future I fully expect FTC will be worth £700m, or more, if it can expand its customer base and product offering but it isn't worth that now and the smart money has been selling into every recent rise. At the start of April FTC was trading at c200p and even that was probably overpriced if I'm being honest (it's easy to ignore reality when you are invested). All this talk about FTC doing a potential Rolls Royce is to ignore the fact that FTC has already done a Rolls Royce, and more, over the last 6 years. Indeed Rolls Royce could only wish to do an FTC!

I'm interested in reinvesting but not at £3; the current metrics don't warrant the current share price and there are still plenty of potential risks and/or pitfalls. The only thing that might warrant the current share price is the SpaceX hype but it's a sand castle too. I don't expect the SpaceX price to crash immediately but I'm certain as I can be that it will crash at some point in the near future (there's just too many imponderables) and there will be a lot of collateral damage if and when it does.

Caveat emptor.

You do know that SpaceX made a $4-5 billion loss last year and is slated to make a similar loss again this year and may never make a profit (says so in the prospectus). Starlink is the only profitable part of the business but it's debatable whether the growth in profits in Starlink will ever be able to offset the losses elsewhere in the business and, even if it can, we're probably looking at a 5-10 year timeline. Plus, the potential to operate (say) data centres in space isn't the slam dunk we've been led to believe; the first law of thermodynamics hasn't been addressed (you can't just vent heat into a vacuum, you need matter).

Starlink (satellites) actually only accounts for c5-10% of the current valuation put on SpaceX by Musk. Over 50% of its valuation is currently accounted for by, as yet unidentified, potential benefits! It's like asking somebody to invest in an idea you haven't yet had but you think you might have at some future, as yet unspecified, date.

I'm not knocking SpaceX, I just don't think it's worth the IPO price based on any rational metric and certainly not worth more than the IPO price. I won't deny that Musk is very good at selling the irrational and it's quite clear that a lot of people are drinking his kool-aid and choosing to ignore reality. On that basis, I think its current investors will make a killing but that a lot of retail investors will eventually be left carrying the can when reality eventually sinks in; Starlink is not enough to sustain SpaceX's valuation.

I think that's probably an over simplification. The UK is, and always has been, a very metrics driven market. Both ENSI and FTC have got significantly ahead of their respective metrics and a pull back was always on the cards, just a question of when. The smart money always wants to exit stage left before the herd.

The fact that the SpaceX IPO has been 4x oversubscribed just goes to show how barking the market has become. I suspect that a number of investors will be nursing serious hangovers if they pile into SpaceX when it starts trading. Musk has, once again, managed to sell an idea that might never come to fruition or will take decades if it does. In the meantime SpaceX is going to continue to clock up $billions of annual losses.

It's a possibility. It also possibly explains the recent collapse in the Bitcoin price. On the other hand, you could argue that the rise of the Magnificent Seven has been driven by too much money chasing too few opportunities.

Dubs, LSE offers Level 2. I use it but don't always find it very helpful because it doesn't seem to show the whole order book. The way other posters talk about Level 2 I'm often left to think that I'm only seeing half the picture on LSE. E.g. on FTC, apart from auctions, I only ever see the MMs positions; I don't get any information about how many shares the MMs are actually willing to buy/sell or what third other parties might also be in the market. You've also got to be appreciate that MMs are aware that a lot of investors now have access to Level 2 and use that information to their advantage

WBJ, I don't follow. FLTCF closed at $4.91 (c366p) on Friday, c26p ahead of the closing price in London.

Notanewmember, I suggest you do some research. The satellites don't "... directly talk to you phone ...". The signal is far too weak. They "talk" to base stations and FTC happens to make the communications chips for said base stations.

As regards data centres in space, please enlighten us how you intend to overcome the first law of thermodynamics; namely dissipating the heat generated by data centres into the vacuum of space (it might be cold in space but with little, or no, physical matter there's no mechanism for heat to be transferred).

If you can't dissipate the heat a data centre's performance will start to degrade and ultimately it will stop working altogether. It's not an easy problem to fix; even if you can transfer the heat using a coolant in an enclosed system you'd still have to convert the heat into some other form of energy before the coolant can be recirculated. I would hazard that heat pumps might work but that would only create another headache i.e. increasing the weight and dimensions of the payloads required to be launched into space to build the data centres. There is also the additional problem; the more complicated the solution the more likely there are to be breakdowns. Nothing is simple in space.

There's a lot of pseudio-science in the SpaceX prospectus that doesn't currently stand up to closer scrutiny. Musk may want to launch the first data centres by 2028 but one doubts that this will be on a commercial scale (there will probably be a lot of trial and error beforehand).

Maybe CharlieMJunior could explain 😉

We've had this discussion several times over the last few months. Based on traditional valuation metrics FTC is not currently worth £750m; nobody disputes that. However some shares, particularly in the US, seem to defy traditional valuation metrics and the forthcoming SpaceX IPO is proving a case in point. FTC is currently riding the tailwind and if enough people believe the hype around SpaceX then it's quite possible that FTC's share price could still go much higher before reality sinks in (you just want to be sure that you sell the right side of the crash).

Personally I think it's quite feasible that FTC could be worth £1-2bn in 5-10 years time if the expansion of LEO satellites continues e.g. Starlink currently has c10,500 satellites in orbit but Musk has plans to increase that to 1 million! He's just mad enough to do it too if you bear in mind that his new share incentive plan is based on successful manned missions to Mars!

That said, I wouldn't pay (say) £10 today for something that might be worth £10 in 5-10 years time especially if you bear in mind that FTC still has to get a lot of its ducks in a row if it's ever going achieve that plus continue to stay ahead of its competitors in product innovation.

58,000 shares were supposedly bought for 392.71p at 16:37:22 after the UT. I say "supposedly" because it wasn't a delayed trade and I'm somewhat surprised that somebody would have needed to pay that much; fat finger perhaps (362.71p would have been more like I might have expected).

The US market seems to be showing some resistance tonight, something it hasn't done all week. It briefly touched $4.57 (c340p) but is currently hovering at around c$4.75 (c355p), 15 minutes delayed. Perhaps the market will shrug off tonight's close come Monday morning after all; we'll have to wait and see.

340p closing UT. It's going to be interesting on Monday morning to see how this plays. Natural investor caution ahead of a weekend or the start of more "trout fishing"; the last few weeks it seems that the share price has been gamed (the seller allows the "trout" to run before winding it back in).

Famous last words ...

Not convinced that the seller has gone. Lots of big buys at 360p but SING isn't budging.

Hi Henching, Out of interest, where are you getting your L2 data from? I use LSE's L2 data and I'll be honest I don't always find it very informative. Apart from auctions, it only shows the MM positions and that can often be misleading. Several of the MMs have been flip flopping about the spread over the last couple of weeks, JBER in particular, and don't often show their hand and/or true intentions IMHO. Just interested. Thanks

Which is it? The UT was 287p. So why are you also saying 302.50?

Glowacki, Why don't you trying reading behind the headlines? I can't be bothered to repeat what I've said before to people who can't actually be bothered to do some research. You might be enlightened if you took the time!

Have to admit that I sold my shares this morning. Realised a very good profit but am kicking myself for not selling when the share price was closer to £4 rather than £3. My reasons are several-fold:

1) The more I read/listen about the forthcoming SpaceX IPO the more I dislike. I think the shares are massively overpriced. Any other IPO and I could see the investment banks suggesting/demanding that the IPO price be reduced but this is Musk and I think he'd be more likely to pull the IPO altogether than reduce the IPO price. Musk has "walked on water" before and I wouldn't bet against his messianic powers to do so again but I think he's bitten off more than even he can chew this time. Whichever way you cut it, after any initial euphoria, I think the SpaceX share price will tank and drag the rest of the nascent space market with it.

2) The FTC seller(s). They've been pummelling the share price for over a week now and I think they've now killed off any potential momentum in the run up to the SpaceX IPO. They started leaving the party a good month before I expected.

3) The general economic background. The war in Iraq and the onslaught of AI is beginning to drag the rest of the market down. I don't think this is about to change anytime soon.

4) FTC's metrics. I think we're all agreed that the share price has got way ahead of the metrics. I'm a firm believer that FTC has a very rosy future but it still has to get several more ducks in a row e.g. expand its existing customer base (the recent explosion aboard Blue Origin's launch vehicle has put back even further its already significantly delayed satellite launch programme and the potential prospect of a new FTC order). Given points 1-3 above, I think a fall back based on its over extended metrics becomes even more likely.