Member Info for TheThinker

Lots of factors affecting the share price for now and the future; gas price, flow rate from H2, negotiation on outstanding debt, tax policy, etc. The uncertainty over all these most likely account for the unease and dissapointing share price. Some of these are in IOGs hands to solve, others are beyond their control. Debt must be weighing heavy given interest rate and projections of further increases. Flow rate we should know soon enough and we all look for top end numbers. A positive RNS and maybe some director buying activity would give good vibes as regards the future. Tax policy might be affected by change of administration next year. Personally I'm a firm HOLD on IOG but I can understand why traders are top slicing when things are so up and down. Good Luck everyone. TT

Top of the leader board this morning. Nice to see. It was only a few weeks ago it was top of the downgrades leader board.

Great RNS this morning.

So the mechanical blockage was a partially opened valve after all.

Max sustainable flow of 42 is above guidance range of 30-40.

I like the progressive approach of getting the well flowing at 20, understanding the system behaviour and then gradually ramping up.

With gas prices set to rise again towards fall and winter this can only bode well for IOG.

I got in at 5.4p before the turbulence and held. I was tempted to build my position but felt their was a bit too much risk. IOG is still cheap at these levels but not for much longer IMO. Once analysts project what this means for the company then you'll see big money piling in.

There have got to be a few worried shorters out there right now. Well done to those IOG investors who held their nerve.

Keep the faith.

TT

The only thing that they should pumping right now is 30 to 40 million standard cubic feet per day.

We're drifting in the Doldrums today it seems. Now, nobody kill an albatross please. We don't need any more bad luck. TT

I may be wrong but I presume that the valve mentioned is the downhole safety valve. There are lots of websites and videos about how these work. There is a good write up on Wiki too. TT

Morning IOG peeps. It was nice to log in to some positive news from Rupert this morning which will have gone a long way to steadying the ship or should I say 'tug boat'.

We investors look to the risk/reward balance and it has certainly shifted IOG towards the reward side based on that RNS.

Now I am questioning whether to double up at these low levels. I am a 5.4p investor and by doubling up I become a sub 5p investor. A bit more clarity on the nature of the blockage rather than just 'mechanical' might just push me into doing that. I'm sat here on barrels of dry powder but with things looking up now I dont want to curse it. The quandry I have is that my gut feeling is that IOG won't stay at these low levels for long as others twig what is about to go off. Good Luck everyone and never invest what you can't afford to lose. TT

I'm looking at chart of UK Natural Gas price since 2005.

Ignoring unprecedented price spike between May 2021 and May 2023 gas price is still at the upper range of trading.

So unless we predict it dropping to lower end of the range, gas producers will still get a decent price.

IOG screwed up by not making the most of the spike, I can only speculate what IOG sp would have been if that had happened.

IMHO I can't see demand for gas dropping to the low range in the near term as it is used in so many areas and a lot cleaner than coal/oil which industry is trying to phase out.

IOG just need to sort this latest setback out and get pumping gas. Feeling a bit disappointed as I'm sure are others as my nice little profit from 5.4p entry has turned into a turd.

TT

You said it all mole...

The choice of words 'Mechanical blockage' in my mind would tend to indicate that the blockage is a piece of kit rather than something like a piece of rock which I would expect to have been described as 'physical blockage'.

If it turns out that the mechanical blockage is due to incompetance such as someone dropping something down the hole or failing to observe best practice that would be inexcusable IMO. If something has broken and caused the blockage, I can get my head around that being bad luck. Unfortunately IOG seem to have a lot of 'bad luck' episodes.

I speculate, but getting a piece of broken kit out of the hole sounds worse than something like a piece of rock which I presume could be cored again.

Maybe posters who have more technical knowledge of the process of gas extraction could give us all some ideas of what might have caused a mechanical blockage. It won't change the outcome but would be useful to visualise what might have happened.

Cheers. TT

4 scenarios.

1) They remove the blockage, increasing the flow to full capacity.

2) They partially remove the blockage, flow increases but not to full capacity.

3) They fail to remove any of the blockage and the gas comes out less than capacity.

4) Worst case, the blockage worsens and totally blocks the gas flow permanently.

Risk assessment of each of these scenarios is impossible without more detailed data, which I'm sure IOG will be gathering over the upcoming days and weeks.

The RNS mentions servicing debt. No doubt that the worries over realising the income stream in order to service this debt means that they have had to bring in specialists in this field to ensure that terms can be re-negotiated. Sadly, this probably means paying for the specialists and accepting worse debt terms.

On positive note, IOG are still sitting on a significant gas asset. Future business viability depends on whether the returns form gas sales would be enough to service the new debt conditions and operational expenses.

All this is to be expected with oil and gas. RNS was welcomed and one of the most comprehensive I've seen from IOG although as ever wording was carefully put together. I'm a hold on this for now. Good Luck everyone. TT

If shorter interest increases that won't be good for IOG sp.

Be careful not to bet your shirt in case blockage can't be shifted.

TT

Is it flaring or someone lighting a ciggie on a tug boat?

Shame that there is no big uptick so far this week. I've been away for a few days and not watching the markets. Given all the activity last week, I thought that IOG would have RNS'd, broken out and up this week. I guess you never can tell with IOG. Like a lot of em here, still sitting on the golden egg. Good Luck. TT

I've come to learn that wIth IOG, timing (and content) of an RNS is anyone's guess. They'll tell us when they come back from lunch but as to which day it will be one with a 'y' in it. TT

"Nearly there Del, just one more turn...

Brace yourself Rodney..."

Good Luck Everyone invested in IOG.

TT

And with that volume increases (81), and so does spread (>8%).

I give up, I'm going back to bed people.

TT

MMs can justify the 5% spread based on the current low volumes (68 trades at time of writing). However once momentum builds and the volumes start increasing MMs won't be able to hold such a large spread. Of course when good news comes MMs can snaffle quicker tham most of us and benefit most from the rise. I just accept that I'm a small fish but still a nicely plump one. It's coming people, just a matter of time. Keep the faith. TT

Scoredgainsteps and wolster69. Take heart. IOG 52 week high is 40p without good news of H2 if it comes. So your 30p average is absolutely achievable (if the good news comes). I recently tripled my holding of CASP to average down from 11.3p to 8.9p. I've done before on Silver and recently on Greggs too and turned loss into profit. You have to have b***s and deep pockets to play the game but if the risk-reward is heaviliy stacked towards reward it can be worth it. Good Luck and do your own research and never put in what you can't afford to lose. TT

Yesterday, the rise was cut off by some profit taking and trading. I could have jumped out with the herd after a nice profit from my 5.4p entry. However, I thought we were off to the races and held on. My take is that if IOG can rise like yesterday whilst still not totally derisked, what can it do when really good news comes. Sure, there will be traders and short term profit-takers and that's fair enough (everyone has their strategy to make a bit) but ultimately when the good news comes the momentum will be such that it will outweigh the short term. I'm holding and waiting because if H2 comes good then previous highs will be smashed out of the park. As ever my opinion do your own research and never place what you can't afford to lose. Good Luck. TT