RE: Bond interest payment24 Jul 2023 09:54
Since 12 July when the last RNS was released sp has tanked from 3.7p. Given the level of drop (and so rapid) I would have hoped for another RNS to steady investor sentiment. It's getting very cheap and ripe for a takeover unless something is done quickly to ease a nervous market. On the face of it, (and echoed by other posts here) it feels like the market is worried about IOG ability to service it's debts, over the full duration, and it is very susceptible to gas price volatility. Stresses in gas supply over the winter and due to the war are pushing up prices. The human cost of both is very tragic indeed. However, eventually the stresses in supply will find a way to resolve themselves and so price has to revert to a normal level (ref. Crude Oil). So for the next year IOG may be in a position to service it's debts but there is a question mark over the longer term. On option is to bring another well on line. Of course to do this takes capital, of which they do not have a great deal and going further into debt is probably not an option (even if they could secure it). Another option is to increase H2 well flow but this has risks. The current BOD seem to have a better handle on risk management than the previous lot (who frankly seemed hapless and clueless) and producing something at a slightly lower rate for cash is better than pushing things and risking losing the lot. So perhaps a bond holder takeover is a real prospect especially if they have facility to write off the debt. IF they felt that IOG might repeatedly default on the repayments they might be tempted to takeover as this would be financial damage limitation. I'll bet there is some intense head scratching going on somewhere to assess the different scenarios. GLA. TT