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As I inferred below, I'm really afraid that their strategy is to make 250 look really attractive by somehow keeping the SP down until the close of tender, then suddenly allocating another 10-20million to it and wiping out the RI base in one swoop. I also think all the major IIs are unofficially in on it and won't tender.
Please, someone who isn't such a conspiracy theorist as me explain to me why this won't / can't happen.
I would genuinelly like to tender 20% and get 20%. I don't want to have to tender 100% in the hope of getting 20% and then lose the lot for a paltry 250.
LOL, TB!!! I've got Darktrace on the brain today, obviously I mean MT.
I'd never question MT's motives, in fact his contribution to the past, present and future success is immeasurable.
...and before someone jumps on me, I'm not saying there will be further offers. I think waiting for my 620 rather than taking 600-610 now is a fair offset for a potential much bigger gain - but I don't claim to know anything, I just form a strategy and let it play out.
We don't know what other parties might or might have been in discussions when TB were interested before, or since.
The fact that nobody else made a firm bid then is irrelevant - that was then and this is now. Things change in 12-18 months. The US market certainly has. I bought Crowdstrike at $109 at a similar time to the original TB interest and sold 80% of my holding recently at over $300. What is Darktrace worth over there now?
BBB - It would be insane for NC to trade them as you say, he would have to notify. Simply lending them out though, that's another matter... Lots of IIs do it, get a 'short' fee in the immediate term with a 'long' gain strategy in the medium plus term.
Also, I'd never questions TB's motives, maybe he doesn't want to move the market. Maybe he just wants more shares, and under 250 who can blame him.
HKK - No point you buying back at 601 though, not enough gain to 620. As Sheltie says there's not a chance of another bid coming in. The End, never, FACT, or whatever else you want to write at the end of a sentence to make the opinion sound convincing. Bit like walking away as you have the last word in a debate/arguement with the other half, a weak attempt at not having to entertain their views when you've got no facts to back up your own.
I'll hold thanks.
I agree, that'll be the fear. Buying at 2.12 (prob 2.14 after costs) would seem to give a 15% return which isn't bad for a couple of months of tied up funds.
But if you only get to tender 25% and aren't PRTC 'believer'....
Dallo
'Having been invested here for nearly 6 years now, I am getting thoroughly disappointed at the continuing share price underperformance and I am tempted to flog my total holding in the Tender and move on.'
I strongly suspect that's the response they're hoping for...
If I didn't know better (sorry, just split my sides laughing) I might think that the share price was being 'held down' to make the 250 tender offer more appealing to us little people. After all, every time the SP makes a bid for freedom it gets whacked on the head and dragged back to 210. I guess it's the only way they can make 250 look attractive.
I'll know that's the case when they tell us after tender close at 250 that it was oversubscribed and that they've now allocated another 10 or 20million to it to offload a lot more than the original 14% suggested.
I'm such a cynic...
Prof - Why would it be bad for PIs in your view though?
Lending - That's pretty much my understanding but thanks for doing the legwork and confirming.
On one hand 75% isn't a high bar, particularly with so may IIs in from the IPO at 250... but on the other hand only 14.4% irrevocable is a pretty low starting point. They've got a bit of work to do and every day that takes gives other bidders more opportunity.
I don't believe any new bidder would be bad news for PIs. The floor is 620.
Unless The Professor knows something I don't of course but as he's not a regular DARK contributor (or investor probably) I suspect it was a bit random, although I'd be happy to hear him expand on his statement.
26milllion traded today, or 3.7% of shares issued.
That's a fair percentage of the RI / free float, but a significant proportion of that sector does tend to think in the very short term. Ie, emotion and fear over calm assessment and strategy.
It's a tried and tested model. Buy low in the UK, run it privately for 2 or 3 years and then re-list in the US. They'll probably triple their money.
I don't think RIs have any hope of stopping this but if you've sold hoping the sale will fall over and you can then buy back cheaper you can forget it.
This is a one way bet now. You hold or buy ay 608 and either get your stake money +2-3% in 3-6 months or you get a much better return if another Company enters the bidding. That's why certain types of Investor jump in after the initial furore of the takeover announcement has died down.
He's a great Chairman to have with the endless support, but the silly thing is that he makes so many purchases of circa 5k whenever the Company isn't in a closed period that it's almost more noticeable when he doesn't. If he actually saved his pennies and made 100-200k purchases it would make the market take more notice.
One things for sure though. He isn't buying shares because he has too much money and needs to get rid of it. He's expecting it to pay off and sooner rather than later .
LOL
I used to have a boss with that attitude. It can't be a good idea because someone else would already have done it if it was. The company went bust, no big surprise really.
Sheltie. I agree a sale is a done deal, but it isn't cut and dried to TB.
The shareholders won't vote in favour of the offer regardless of what the BoD recommends if new offers surface, so even if binding terms have been signed they don't extend beyond the irrevocable support by the 15% and the BoD to TB.
That's meaningless if Crowdstrike or another come in and offer 650+
608 today or 620 in 3-6months. Given the time value of money, most RIs will take slighter less then 620 today IF they don't think a greater bid will come in. Arbitrage Funds will start hoovering now so the 608 will creep up over the coming days and weeks as it did with KCT.
I see 0% chance of this deal falling over and a very decent chance of counter bids so I'm holding on to the shares I have left, circa 70% of my original purchase. The other 30% went before today.
GLA and DYOR
Agree re ASOS although Ashley is a pain there as he owns over 10% so can be a blocker. I think 888, BOOM, EMAN or even BOWL are more likely, although there are plenty of others.
Depends on the legal method of acquisition. Usually between 51% and 75% excluding any shares held by the offerer.
Not heard of 90% before, but I only have experience of what I've been involved in.
Interesting seeing the SP drop to 607, which is the RI panic phase (it's dropping I want to protect my profit), usually happens just before the Arbitrage Funds step in and start soaking up as much as they can get. This will be prime for them with the 2-3% gap plus the potential for uplift.
A few people have said that 'the last deal fell through'. Just to set the record straight that's not accurate.
The BoD were in talks that didn't result in an acceptable offer before, that's totally different.
This is a recommended (by the BoD) cash offer. 620 is now the floor given that many large shareholders were in at the IPO at 250 so would probably consider 620 as acceptable. I can't see it being voted down. RI's are pretty much irrelevant and many would vote for anyway.
I believe more bids will come in over the next few weeks and the selling price will be nearer 750. I also think both Jeffereies and the BoD know this.