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Last comment on the subject of taking the Company private (I don't want to monopolise what is one of the better boards on LSE).
If MM wants to take THG private then the time is now, everything is in his favour (or as much as it can be when he's overseen a company with the performance of THG's one the past couple of years).
PE is awash with funds that it's just desperate to spend, the share price is on it's knees, he still it seems has the support of key Share Holders who undoubtedly would like to stay involved and let him keep his toy, and finally (and most importantly) I believe macro conditions are about to change.
If he leaves it any longer the price is only going up. More suiters will come out of the woodwork and even with a BoD full of yes-men they can't recommend an offer to take THG private based on numbers lower than external unsolicited bids. If they did I can promise you that as much as the BoD might try to hush them up, those offers will be leaked to the press by the parties not given fair consideration.
Watch this space.
Have a great day all.
@Pmh198
I agree with your thoughts re taking THG private. That would be a good outcome for everyone including MM... if it was done at a fair price.
But, do you think it's likely he's going to act in the interests of all (including smaller) Share Holders when it comes to agreeing that 'fair price'? History doesn't fill me with confidence.
The best outcome is a hostile approach timed with some major Share Holders losing patience with his antics. I don't believe that can be too far away and MM's best defence against that is to get it private first.
The Golden Share / Premium Listing issue is yet another example of a lack of commitment to Share Holders interests both large and small.
Yes, removal of the golden 'veto' at least opens channels for the company to move forward in ownership terms, but more importantly it should have opened the door to a Premium Listing. With that listing comes indexation, and with that the necessity of numerous funds to retain shares in the Company. That would obviously have a beneficial effect on the SP that even MM wouldn't sniff at.
Unfortunately the Premium Listing also comes with an increase in compliance for both Governance and Disclosure... both dirty words at THG.
Major share holders should be seething and it doesn't make sense that they aren't... unless of course they're aware of moves towards a major corporate event which is going to give them a return on (or at least a little confidence in) their investment. Something needs to happen in Q1 or at the latest Q2 this year.
To me, simple things like not scheduling dates for trading updates gives away both the poor working efficiencies of the company and the underlying attitude towards their listing obligations and shareholders generally.
A company either accepts that if they want to be publicly listed then there are responsibilities and obligations that come with the deal, and they discharge them openly and willingly, OR the company do the bare minimum to comply and tick the box.
THG and MM now believe their own rhetoric that the UK market has caused all their problems and they're treating the listing rules and all but their most friendly shareholders with contempt (but thanks for the all the money at IPO folks).
As for IR being unresponsive/crap/incapable* (delete as appropriate), I'm actually going to be contrarian here. They're not telling you the date because they don't know it, because the business doesn't know it, because the control-freak that MM is won't tell them until he feels like it. It's an outrageous infringement on his liberties that he has to give you any information at all in his view. It'll be kept to the absolute minimum and you can be grateful for what you get, when you get it. Can you imagine working for MM in IR? In a roll he doesn't value or want? It's thankless. The brief will be I'll talk to the key shareholders myself , you keep the 'other' shareholders at bay, but as you can't have any information you'll have to do it by not answering the phone or email.
Management and cultural change is required at THG, whether it be brought about by changing key personnel, a business break-up or an outright sale. The course we're on is the only one that will lead to certain failure.
...and one last thing. Buying shares in Kelso in response to their activism. The childish and petulant act of a bully. Time to take a step back and take an honest look at yourself Matt. There's a name for people who think they're always right and the rest of the world is wrong.
@Hardwell
The lack of LinkedIn posts from him personally could mean what you hope, you never know. I really hope you're right.
But at the very least it suggests (maybe) that he's learnt that publicly spouting off on social platforms won't win you friends, particularly within the media (regardless of whether you're patting yourself on the back for your successes, or passing the blame for your failures). You're just giving people ammunition to ridicule you with later, and often those people have better circulations than he does. He won't win that fight.
I hope some of that old MM magic (from long long ago) shows itself again soon, because he's standing outside the last chance saloon looking thirsty.
There's a really simple answer to all of these issues, just in case you're reading this board Matt.
You can get rid of questions over your ability to run a listed Company, you can reduce the shorts, you satisfy your shareholders (even those of us who are apparently only here for a quick buck, although we're still here... go figure), you can even win over those pesky Journos.
All you've got to do is post a couple of decent trading updates backed up by a hint of forward strategy, and maybe show something other than distain for your share holders who have had a pretty raw deal to date. It's not much really...
I've no doubt £1 (and £1.20 and £1.50) will be hit, but I couldn't tell you if it'll be in 6 days, 6 months or next year. I also couldn't say for a fact if we'll see 80p or not on the way to it, although I'd be surprised if we did.
If Shorts were right more often than not then the markets would consistently go down.
...and any comparison between PFC and MCG as businesses (or sane investments) would be a mistake, any time PFC goes up meaningfully I'd suggest it's a good one to short :-)
There are plenty of situations where a short is a good move, after a rapid rise on an AIM stock for example, but if you can't find a better risk / return ratio than Mobico for a short at the moment I'd stick to Longs.
Agree Draft. Someone ultimately is going to see great value out of EMAN, whether it's us RIs or not remains to be seen
MOBICO, I bloody hate auto correct. I changed it twice from Monica LOL
Going short on Mobica is simply a stupid thing to do.
No doubt there's a chance of the SP drifting down over the coming few weeks but it's not more likely that a gradual raise, particularly with (as you say) the obvious value here, the potential American sale, the family increasing their stake and the endless takeover speculation. You have a marginal gain on a short weighed against a potentially huge gain on a long.
The SP is much more likely to go up than down, and that's without taking account of any corporate event, which lets face it, without a rapid turn around in the companies performance is a raging certainty.
The BoD can't keep 'batting away suitors' if they don't start delivering some value for shareholders.
The SP here only moves upwards on rumour and speculation. It needs to be able to do so on the company actually delivering some good results, something I've not seen for a while.
In either direction...?
This is Mo we're talking about, it'll be slightly above expectations as always. Under promise and over deliver.
I expect he even gives Mrs Mo 30 seconds longer than she was expecting LOL
No logic to the SP movement already this morning. Very very strong buying in 30 and 50k lumps, all very close to the ask, and then without a single trade near the bid they drop it, which then gives them 2 sells. Typical Snare and Scare.
Starting to think my through 30s prediction has legs.
Creep up the share price to entice you into selling, then drop it sharply to scare you into selling, rinse and repeat.
If I didn't know better (and I don't I'm just wildly speculating), I'd say a price has been agreed and someone is sweeping up a quick 3% (maybe 5% by the time they have 48hours to declare) on the cheap off the retail market whilst doing DD before it's announced.
Or maybe not, but the behaviour fits... If it goes through 30 tomorrow then I reckon I'm right. If it goes back into the (Friday) 27s then maybe not.
Yep, and at 14.28 when it was recorded the Ask was only 28.5p. Keen.
Very odd price movement heading into the last hour. The trades (on the surface anyway) don't support the rise.
It looks as though the MMs are pushing up the price to encourage sellers. I said someone was accumulating earlier in the week and this sort of thing only reinforces my view.
I'm looking forward to seeing the TR1
Yep. Steady as she goes.
I believe that Imutex is still the non-core non-asset (LOL) which is most likely at some stage to provide a Special Divi / Div in Specie to shareholders, it's just entirely dependent on our 51% partner deciding how they want to proceed.
Regarding DIM, that seemed like a great idea to me at the time, medical data is worth millions and a subscription licence model is a great basis for a high-profit, low-cost business . I concluded that it didn't proceed because of some legal issue with selling data, but the timing of spinning it off as a separate entity (NASDAQ) being entirely wrong is also an option. If the latter is the case then it could come back at some stage too. The fact that POLB use the data under licence (recently renewed) means that it must be possible on a larger scale.
As for the third spin-off that didn't happen, I think I remember it being 23% of something, but I can't remember what...
Imutex obviously does have value, and potentially great value, but at this point in time we don't know what that value is and when/if it will ever be realised.
It was valued at zero on the balance sheet along with the other potential spin offs that didn't happen just after Mo joined, and I always assumed it was one of Mo's conditions of taking the job on. It enables him to do things the way he always does them, which is under promise and over deliver.
If Imutex never comes to anything with it valued at zero on the balance sheet then nothing is lost, but if it realises a big gain then everyone is happy and Mo (rightfully in my view) gets the plaudits again.
To answer your question, I guess it would have to be given a nominal value to be classed as an asset but that's just accounting. The new entity would have to have a board and other minor running costs too, as someone has to take the decision how and when to sell the asset and distribute. When I realised that was when I thought it might be easier to put it into the hands of POLB to administer or simply auction it off, although I doubt it would realise anywhere near it's true value.
I'm sure CF is on the case anyway. He doesn't strike me as someone who gives things away if they're worth something.