Member Info for Therapist

All,

As expected we start the year at the bottom end of 2021 target range approx 46.5k boepd net with usual Malaysian estimates. Kraken just under 24k net boepd and Magnus just over 15.5k net boepd. Alba fell off a cliff which doesn't help.

On the plus side GEAD would have scored over 10.5k net boepd this month.

Scott Spirit hovering with intent. Enough of the tanker-tease, she wants to get in there like one of Rotterdam's finest and suck like she's trying to take the brass off a door knob.

GLAXXX

All,

The captain of Scott Spirit has seen the Director purchase as a good sign and decided to withdraw shore leave and hightail it asap from Feistein drawn to the mighty roar of the KRAAAAAAAAKKKKKEN!!

GLAXXX

All,

A bit more science because it's not over yet . . . .

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/26/shipsplaining-with-everyones-favourite-large-sea-boat-expert-captain-onthemoon

GLAXXX

Hi,

Not sure if this is OT as could have large POO consequences.

For those interested in ship jams these are good update sites:

https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2021/03/24/vessel-blockage-in-the-suez-canal
Maersk with over 50 ships delayed or heading to delay and 15 re-routed.

and

https://www.bs-shipmanagement.com/en/media/1-media-statement

from the camel's mouth as it were.

and the not so serious

https://twitter.com/SuezDiggerGuy

GLAXXX

Hitman,

https://shipandbunker.com/news/emea/667872-refloating-ever-given-in-suez-canal-will-take-at-least-until-wednesday

It's a "shipjam". The cluster of ship dots at Port Said and Suez is getting biggerer and biggerer. Epic.

GLAXXX

Pelle,

I think you should have a virtual refund every time someone else mentions the dividend w. Doh!

GLAXXX

Try this one then comedy police: https://bit.ly/3vWP3ne

All,

Definitely Hannon: "Cargo ship drew giant ***** in Red Sea before wedging itself in Suez Canal"

https://metro.co.uk/2021/03/24/cargo-ship-drew-giant-*****-in-red-sea-before-blocking-suez-canal-14298538/

GLAXXX

"Following the Six Day War in 1967, the Egyptian government blocked the Canal’s entrances with mines and abandoned ships. The 15 ships that remained stranded were moored inside the Canal, and many of the crewmembers remained on deck for the entire period. During these eight years, the people formed a community of sorts, creating their own trading systems and organizing sporting events to pass the time." Something for them all to look forward to if the other end gets blocked.

There is definitely not an older channel unless you are southbound and it involves turning round and going north.

GLAXXX

https://twitter.com/JohnArnoldFndtn/status/1374768670514159616

Frac,

I saw the "opened older one" quote also. Smells like camel dung to me. That section is single file and as far as I can make out there isn't an "older one" unless it's underground or is in stealth mode. A few angry sailors in the "Great Bitter Lake" right now.

GLAXXX

Hi Kamrat,

Sorry to hear of your earlier accident and I hope you are leading as healthy a life as possible going forward.

I have just delved a bit more into the Gurun proposed VLFSO to Brent conversion accounting for API and have found the science to back it up. Top marks Gurun. If you use 14 api for Kraken as an average across the site (13.7 to 15.7 range) then conversion factor is 6.47 not the 6.78 that you have. That is still, if compared to Singapore, a massive 19.6% premium on Brent today although, as you appreciate there are costs that mitigate that to get it there which would affect the sales price.

I think gas purchased does not show in OGA figures as not produced but usually shows up as a budget line in the company reports if sold on. I also believe there is less need to purchase anymore due to reuse of produced gas capabilities at Magnus. My gas figures however are very low on those in the H1 20 report so I hope they purchased a ridiculous amount and sold it on to make my numbers work. If so . . why do they keep doing that?

It's all just numbers and we will likely be more confused and dare I predict "frustrated" at the end of the week.

Stay Safe and Wash your Hands,

Therapeuten.

GLAXXX

All,

It was Windy Miller and his ilk cow towing to Colley Mill owning landed gentry and failing to supply local bakers but holding out instead for the 1960's "rise of the supermarket" dollar that led to the demise of Camberwick Green and Trumpton and Chigley High Streets.

I'll never forgive him.

Filtered.

GLAXXX

Hi,

If gas is sold at 60% of Brent and Brent is $60 then based on last year I estimate the difference in stripping out the gas from total boepd figures is around $29million. That is $29 million less income. Granted we're not entirely sure what they get for it and I think Malaysia might be a tasty expensive gas from earlier reported income stream splits. And I do bang on about it . . .

Meanwhile Kraken has NO in a copulatory lock like the sauciest of floating vixens c--kcuffing an itinerant dog fox in the North Sea moonlight.

GLAXXX

All,

As has been reported, Oceania up the back of Kraken like Fidel Castro on a meal break.

The hurly burly isn't done. Witches beware.

GLAAXXX

Hej Comrade Tarmak,

Therapeuten reporting for duty. I think from your posts you claim to be an eager amateur and I make no claim to being anything like an expert.

I have taken the OGA Oil and gas figures for over three years and tried to manipulate them to make my own prognosis. It has always amazed me that folk will multiply boepd by oil price without factoring in gas %. BOEPD is an energy equivalent NOT a price equivalent. Apples and Pears as we say over here or Meatballs and Smoked Herring in Swedish.

Anyhow this might be useful.

I convert oga gas to boepd as 1 MMscf/d =166 boepd
I make an assumption on sources where gas has a route to market.
I make an assumption of gas to market instead being used as gas for processes or fuel
I make an assumption of the value of the gas
I tweak the above year on year to try and tie into actual reported figures. There is sometimes a split on income from Oil and Gas in the reports which helps.

I think gas prices are as volatile as oil and do not necessarily follow a similar pattern. Henry Hub is a source but I think I have also looked at UK North Sea Gas wholesale prices as an indicator in the past. Malaysia is a guessing game also. In short it is guesswork as we have no idea of type or value of commodity being monetised.

For Gas I have 4692 boepd 2019 and because of Malaysia issues a reduction to 3374 boepd 2020. Prices per quarter ranging from a $37 high to a $10 Covid low.

I enjoy creating the spreadsheets to do all this. Once done I spend very little time doing it. I have enough on my plate with the EP nightclub, interpol assistance and fluffing out my CV for the Enquest Chief of Public Relations and Corporate Entertainment role that I am applying for.

Keep up the hard work,

GLAXX

Hi Shax,

I've never managed to work it out.

Two large operators

https://knutsenoas.com/fleet/

https://www.teekay.com/about-us/fleet/

A lot of the visiting tankers were listed as Teekay but now aren't.

The Knutsens are Knot or Knop and I think they charter the Spirits and the Navions off Teekay or own them but don't list them because they aren't pure Knutsens. Tankergenics.

Regardless they never go where they are meant to when they are told and usually disappear just at the point when you want to see them. They can also appear out of the blue when last reported on the other side of the planet.Eventually they beach themselves in Turkey and are ripped apart by people in flip flops.

Don't trust them.

Hope that helps.

GLAXXX

All,

"Relationships are about trust. If you have to play detective, then it’s time to move on". Just a reminder from early December from Mr OCD "ENQ is junk, just in their (sic but I do typos also) for a bit of jeopardy, lol. I have said as much over there (correct) and not popular (correct). Rifl (Rigid Intubating Fiberoptic Laryngoscope, apparently). Money to be made there (correct) anyway."

On filter for me but seems active still. Fickle and tight as a fairy thong. The filter button is conveniently located towards the top of the screen.

Amd . . . . move on.

GLAXXX

MO,

I have tried my best while you were otherwise engaged.

Fought some battles and made friends and enemies along the way. Found a filter button.

In case you didn't know I now own Enquest Producer, work with Interpol in trying to apprehend Neil Hannon and am banned from the Shetlands after the Sullom Voe episode.

Great to have you back, enrich at your own pace,

GLAXXX

All,

Oceania labelled as departing Le Havre and to "Prod Armada Kraken" on 17th. Coul do with a prod by then I should think.

GLAXXX