Member Info for theoryman

“ However, back to the fundamental question of the thread; do you think GKP might be priming itself for sale or not?”

It doesn’t matter IMO whether they are or they aren’t.

If they aren’t then they are happy to be lean profit making machine.

If they are then others will decide whether to bid or not.

If they don’t bid it’s still a lean profit making machine and if they do then that’s a bonus.

What insult? If you think it was in the last paragraph it wasn’t, your posting history has removed all doubt that you are in that group.

Even if it is being primed it doesn’t necessarily follow that when suitors delve deeper they will take the bait.

Does every lean mean profit making machine get taken over?

Yet another idea where there is no evidence of causation.

I’d like a takeover but I do not need it, so IMO that makes me more likely to question things than someone who desperately needs one to get their money back.

@straycat, re the “lean, mean, profit making machine.”

When any suitor does their DD, their first questions will be based around where the profit is coming from now and will it be sustainable under different scenarios. (I’ll give them a clue wrt the first question, it’s not all from Profit Oil.)

My investment strategy with the company is based on the short term continuation of its present FCF generation mode.

I am running a reduced holding for free, with a significant profit already banked and put to good use.

If at any stage an offer is made for the company, then that will be a bonus.

I know the bonus will be reduced because I have reduced the size of my holding but GKP is only a small part of my net worth. My focus is on the performance of the whole based on my decisions and not the individual outcomes over which I have no control.

@putup, I am basing my estimates on the assumption they will average 48+ kbopd through July to December this year.

In Jan with SH-13&14 added, but SH-10 shut down, and without SH-15, they averaged 46k.

Now with SH-15 on line and SH-10 restarted, they should be higher than that 46k IMO unless there have been yet more issues.

@zedy, if someone comes up with one, make sure they define how the starting price is defined upon which the % rise is calculated.

I have an example where I can raise the premium from under 30% to over 130% by using a different “initial price” :)

@shortsaueezer, why is the company using the PSC to its advantage a negative?

Why not self fund the expansion through the CRP and CO mechanism?

GKP are responsible for 80% of the costs that arise in adding each chunk of FUTURE production but they also get them back, albeit with a time delay, through 80% of the CO from the CURRENT production, from every month of the ongoing development as the production rises in time.

He’s a COMMUNICATION strategist. He meets with the client, clarifies what their agenda is, then designs the master plan for trying to help them deliver a successful outcome through a controlled flow of information.

Enter stage left, Kipling’s fighting men.

Whom is the target?
What are you trying to achieve? Why are you doing it?
What will the content of the messages be?
How will you deliver the messages and when?
How will you know if things are going to plan and eventually measure if you were successful or not?

The process can be applied from planning a lesson for a Y1 class to working on M&A, even posting on share bulletin boards :)

Fat finger strikes again.

Best guess on expiry date, all things being equal, is based on production by end of 2022, so profit boost will continue into first three months of next year through delayed receipts.

Where are the current record breaking profits coming from?

What is the source of the extra monthly top up which is above and beyond the Profit Oil and how long will it continue?

IMHO, first posted Jan 2021, it’s the side effect of the DFE on the CRP CO mechanism in the PSC and the paragraph below outlines how I picture it in terms of numbers.

It’s the conversion of pre-restructuring debt that should have been repaid in the future, into post restructuring equity. So when the money to repay the “debt” comes in through the CRP CO mechanism, it stays within the company because there is no debt to repay. (Applies to $500 million of the original $600 million.)

Best guess on expiry date, all things being equal, is based on production by end of 2021, so profit boost will continue into first three months of next year through delayed receipts.

How about adding what % of your share portfolio this represents so that we can see how concentrated your holding is?

Only so we can see if you are a **** or bust investor or a believer in diversification.

By the way do you own property, bonds etc.?

Oh go on, what is your total net worth?

Where do you live and what are your burglar alarm codes , bank details, share accounts and any passwords?

There is of course absolutely no evidence that sharing personal information on the internet can lead to harm of any sort :-)

@Opulentia, you asked a question using three question marks.

Then you praised yourself with four exclamation marks because the answer turned out to yes.

Now you are having a dig at C*ckeye using FIVE of each.

Just getting used to inflation with food, fuel and power, now it looks like it’s hitting punctuation marks.

Easy to confuse the different dated Brent on offer in the market.

Oct23 bounced off just above $88 but Oct22 never went anywhere near that and was heading to $98 last time I looked.

The only price that matters is the one used for today’s production.

Most of the article is a rehash of previous events and analysis, the thought provoking stuff comes at the end IMO.

“Fundamentally, he does believe in one Iraq - and one Iraq only
-…”

If that is true then there is no place for different types of contracts depending on which part of Iraq the oil is being produced from.

al-Sadr appears to be playing the long game wrt achieving his political aims but in reality just how pragmatic is he? AKA what does he want compared to what he will accept.

Can the contracts issue be solved without his participation and if so in what manner?

If no, then can the contracts issue be solved with his participation and if so in what manner?

If no, then tea and biscuits anyone?

BB, using the word obliged in #2 has no bearing on the point I was making because it is not used in #3.

@C*ckeye, just had another look at the detailed judgement on the FSC’s own website.

#1 they only repealed the KRG’s law under which the contracts were awarded, as opposed to declaring it null and void from creation.

#3 they awarded the plaintiff the right to nullify the contracts, as opposed to instructing them to do so.

Seems there is a lot more leeway there than some of the reports at the time made out.

Iraqi Constitutional law versus allegedly English based Contract law, shouldn’t take too long to get sorted :)

Ha! The media exaggerated his comment about “illegal and oil smuggling” in early July?

His opinion as a politician counts for nothing compared to the FSC’s ruling about the contracts, the politicians are charged with implementing it.

Then again the current FSC could itself be illegal and its ruling counts for nothing, along with every other decision it has made since the new Constitution in 2005.

His reported comments to a newspaper have made everything so much clearer :)

CCC, have you got a link? Only thing coming up when cross referencing him with Kurdistan is from early July, “illegal and oil smuggling.”

CCC, maybe I am missing the point but hiring a Wells Fargo style Stagecoach, with team of horses and driver, would be something only a HNWI would be able to manage.

Victor, those who bought the debt are still here for one very good reason, they are laughing all the way to the bank based on the price they paid for the shares. They have effectively paid a negative amount of money for each share because of the dividends, so even if the price drops to zero they will still have made money. In every other case they make even more money.

Blackrock might own circa 5% of the company but that represents a very very very small % of the value of their total holdings. They hope to make money from each holding but they have no idea at the outset which will deliver and which won’t - they are playing a numbers game.

I don’t think it is a good idea for an individual PI to use either of the above to drive their actions unless there is a very good match in terms of personal circumstances.