Member Info for theoryman

Maybe he needs to employ better quality grunts?

I had 38.8 plus or minus 0.4 or to within 1%. The residual uncertainty arising from the R factor and % of Brent variable transport costs.

Compare that for September, we don’t yet know the production ( usually in last Presentation) and we don’t know whether to use Brent or KBT, and if it is KBT we don’t know the discount to KBT

Up until this latest twist I had two alternative outcomes for the proposed O&G Law.

Agreement or no agreement between the governments to resolve their differences wrt Articles 111, 112, 115 ( and few others) of the Constitution.

Now we have the spectre of a political agreement being reached BUT that is referred to the FSC by an unhappy bunny and they make a ruling.

The agreed Law is deemed by them to be constitutional or unconstitutional…

I think ValueS could well be correct.

If Shaikan was sold as a stand-alone product then an increased demand for heavy sour oil would matter as you suggest.

Once it enters the KBT blend, all that matters is the demand for that mix.

The discount to KBT that Shaikan would get is then derived from a formula which takes into consideration the volumes and quality of the individual components of the mix and not their individual market strengths/weakness at that time.

So given its API and Sulphur content, compared to the rest of the blend, I am not looking forward to finding what the discount is for Shaikan wrt KBT, if the proposed switch goes through.

The market driven discount for KBT wrt Brent is a completely different issue.

https://wp-gulfkeystone-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/01/Pareto-18th-EP-independents-conference-v2-16x9-screen.pdf

Mentions SH-16 and 17 plus SH-P with map showing locations.
Resilience to KRG payment delays.

Still using 2022 Capex

No individual monthly production figures like there was in the last Pareto one.

No mention of discussions wrt KBT.

https://www.hknenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/HKN-Energy-Corporate-Update_01_2023_VF.pdf

Slide 6 is incredibly informative, maybe something GKP would consider matching :)

I was hoping it would alleviate some of my concerns wrt FCF and hence the sustainability of last year’s dividend policy IF GKP agrees to a KBT priced agreement - so far it just confirms them.

Strategies used by CGI arising from FSC ruling are temporarily on hold - good news, should remove illegal oil discount demanded by buyers of KBT.

Cooperating with oil sales and revenue sharing will be at least neutral wrt distressed seller discount that traders extract from the KRG - on balance probably more good news.

In a short time they have IMO set up mechanisms behind the scenes that increase cash generation and benefit both sides - technical solutions that might need a bit of fine tuning.

Now for the hard yards!

Given the three distinct groups, how can the respective politicians soften, or even remove, the red lines that they have stated for years defended their people’s rights under the Constitution and were immovable?

Also how will the sections of the population that the politicians represent, react when they see what they were told was rightfully theirs are being given up?

Best hope is the politicians end up knowing the people couldn’t actually care less as long as they get their salaries paid and the power cuts are stopped.

No mention of any suggested swap to KBT based pricing, combined with “ yes an interesting read, they dont seem too concerned about the unpaid $65 million,…”

Is the $65 million based on two months at Brent or one each at Brent and KBT?

Have they even been asked to switch to KBT?

At least three companies have been asked, two have agreed (HKN and ShaMaran) with GKP in discussions.

Was hoping for some increased clarity in this update, GENEL were the only ones to flag up the swap from 2 to 3 month delays.

Maybe someone will raise these points in the phone in…

Had Thread View on, expected with the number of posts in it there had been a burst of entries - wrong :)

@Straycat, the “relationship” with mMax1 goes back much further than that, it goes back to the old iii board. When that closed a number of us transferred here - myself, mMax1 and ValueS were three of those.

Had

1 May
2 March
3 None
4 None
5 August
6 Nov
7 None
8 None

Hoping to get at least 10 entries, some frequent posters cannily waiting to see if the payment arrives sometime during trading today?

All questions refer to 2023.

Answers to be submitted by 16:30 on this website’s timing on Friday 13th January 2023.

Predicting the correct month scores 3pts, with 1pt for a close miss of a month on either side. Exception is if you choose Dec and it happens in the following year, that scores 0pts.

If you choose None, that means not in 2023, then you score 5 pts if correct and 0pts if you are wrong, no close miss allowed.

1 As we still await payment for August’s production, in which month will that for December 2022’s production arrive?

2 In which month will the share go ex-div for the first time?

3 In which month will the O&G Law get passed?

4 In which month will the company first reach hit an AVERAGE of 55kbopd?

5 In which month will Brent FOB Spot, as used to calculate receipts at the moment, first AVERAGE above $100 again?

6 In which month will the total dividend PAID reach $100 million or above?

7 In which month will the share price first cross up through 250p intraday?

8 In which month will GKP first RNS that they have received an offer for the company? (News sites,Twitter, websites, sources, unnamed people involved etc. do NOT count.)

Has anyone got a link to that recent data? I cannot register for the site in the original post because I do not have a verifiable company email.

I’ve tried the MNR site which has hibernated for the winter and the KRG site Open Data link and that only has the Q1 Q2 audited figures.

A search of all my other Goto places also return nothing.

Will repost as a reminder on Friday morning - will be interesting to see the range of answers.

All questions refer to 2023.

Answers to be submitted by 16:30 on this website’s timing on Friday 13th January 2023.

Predicting the correct month scores 3pts, with 1pt for a close miss of a month on either side. Exception is if you choose Dec and it happens in the following year, that scores 0pts.

If you choose None, that means not in 2023, then you score 5 pts if correct and 0pts if you are wrong, no close miss allowed.

1 As we still await payment for August’s production, in which month will that for December 2022’s production arrive?

2 In which month will the share go ex-div for the first time?

3 In which month will the O&G Law get passed?

4 In which month will the company first reach hit an AVERAGE of 55kbopd?

5 In which month will Brent FOB Spot, as used to calculate receipts at the moment, first AVERAGE above $100 again?

6 In which month will the total dividend PAID reach $100 million or above?

7 In which month will the share price first cross up through 250p intraday?

8 In which month will GKP first RNS that they have received an offer for the company? (News sites,Twitter, websites, sources, unnamed people involved etc. do NOT count.)

@c***eye, the downward effect on the receipt for September’s production is easy enough to estimate. Assume the $9 applies to Shaikan, use (Brent-31) instead of (Brent-22).

The effect on each of Oct to Dec receipts will be known by some but not us. The $9 specifically applied to September’s market conditions for KBT.

The effect on Jan onwards is known by no-one.

When were the IOCs first approached about the potential change?

At what stage in Sep or Oct did the major holders and/or the rest of the potential big buyers/sellers become aware?

If you believe that the market is even remotely efficient and the big players are making informed decisions, then all of the above should already be built into the price action since they became aware.

All questions refer to 2023.

Answers to be submitted by 16:30 on this website’s timing on Friday 13th January 2023.

Predicting the correct month scores 3pts, with 1pt for a close miss of a month on either side. Exception is if you choose Dec and it happens in the following year, that scores 0pts.

If you choose None, that means not in 2023, then you score 5 pts if correct and 0pts if you are wrong, no close miss allowed.

1 As we still await payment for August’s production, in which month will that for December 2022’s production arrive?

2 In which month will the share go ex-div for the first time?

3 In which month will the O&G Law get passed?

4 In which month will the company first reach hit an AVERAGE of 55kbopd?

5 In which month will Brent FOB Spot, as used to calculate receipts at the moment, first AVERAGE above $100 again?

6 In which month will the total dividend PAID reach $100 million or above?

7 In which month will the share price first cross up through 250p intraday?

8 In which month will GKP first RNS that they have received an offer for the company? (News sites,Twitter, websites, sources, unnamed people involved etc. do NOT count.)

@opulentia, there is a big problem with those “buys”, they were transactions that took place after trading, at an agreed price between a buyer and a seller.

They are declared under the transparency rules and are not taking place behind the scenes, they are simply taking place after the market has closed.

One reason for waiting for the market to close is to get a “fair” price for both sides, so how about using the WAV price or a derivative of it, which by definition does not exist until trading has closed.

If you look at the London Stock Exchange site under GKP Trade Recap you will see that they carried the TNCP code which tells anyone all they need to know.

No it wasn’t. The pin was in an interesting position, as in Club Championship location. The clue was in the number of putts the group in front took and they were no mugs.

I picture the discount in two parts even if the market is stable. First there is the distressed seller bit based on how desperate the KRG are to raise funds to offset the lack of cash flow from the CGI. Then there is the extra “illegal” one which fluctuates with how vocal the CGI are about that topic.

The total discount jumped in Feb when the FSC came up with their ruling - definite correlation with illegality in terms of timing but was it causation? Much more likely than not IMO.

Previously the size of the discounts were irrelevant to the IOCs if they got paid on schedule because for example GKP got (Brent-22) whatever they were. Now if they did lead to increasing payment delays then they do matter but how much is a matter of opinion.

Now if the swap to KBT as a base goes ahead, the stability offered by (Brent-22) disappears. It will be replaced by KBT where there is much more uncertainty, it suffers from three variables even if Brent is stable - niche market supply/demand, distressed seller and illegal threat. Whether it would improve the payment schedule or not is complex, depends…

Now if the O&G Law goes through along with an enhanced set of budget payments then the distressed seller and illegal threat both disappear instantly.

The question then becomes what happens to the existing PSCs as part of the deal to bring the above about?

Two extremes come to mind, no change in existing PSCs versus imposed TSCs based on returns already in place in the rest of Iraq. Yessssss! versus Noooooo!

Just for a laugh, throw in the fact that all this talk of political agreement MIGHT just be that, talk. When it comes to crunch time, neither side will give on its red lines and there is no O&G law!

@BB, just got messaged that HKN estimate that swap to KBT base will lead to $9 barrel reduction in realised price for their Sarstang production for Sept..

Posted earlier this week that I couldn’t find data for the effect on previous production from Feb onwards if it had been applied to those months.

Looking as though they might well have been paying over the odds to the IOCs compared to what they have been getting for their oil for several months.

I was on opposite side of fairway to the other three, group ahead struggling to putt out, hit a 9 iron to 10 foot and three putted :(

Was stood waiting to play next shot when sub-conscious came up with this.

When the discount of KBT to Brent was fixed plus or minus a bit, the fixed discounts they used to pay IOCs wasn’t a problem.

From February though they have still paid a fixed discount BUT their discount for KBT to Brent has increased, maybe even doubled!

Ergo, since Feb have they been paying the IOCs at a higher price than they were getting at market?

Think it was Dec ‘21, after the then latest update, that i posted about them hitting 55k very early in ‘22, with some to spare to allow that as an average even allowing for maintenance. Ooops?!

Did much better though with estimating how many payments they would get in the FYR. :(

Just had an idea for a “fun” quiz, too tight to offer a prize. Off to golf and will give it some thought over the weekend - a sort of spot the month competition…

Should allow us to see where we each are on the delusionally positive to deep depressive continuum.