Member Info for Theorist

Dear Hogsnipe,
I am just responding to your invite on LSE. I have to acknowledge that Theorist is right. I am just a part time journo. I met darling Paul in a bar and he kindly offered me £50k a year to sit on the board as a non-exec. Whilst maths is not my strong point I thought it would be churlish to decline. I am afraid I know nothing about finance, funding , strategy or investment programmes so I am unable to help you. I can confirm however that putting fluoride in toothpaste remains highly recommended.
Kind regards Ali.
Ps Have never heard of Sun Dial Colliery but I wish them luck too xx

Reptile it’s not a theory. I wouldn’t mind a bet that there is not a single plc, other than Pre, who has as a non executive director someone who has never ever served on a board. I cannot see anything in AS’s record that would make her suitable, I am thinking governance, finance, strategy, board level experience. You’ve looked on the net, I have, no doubt others have and so far all that has surfaced is a jamboree to Canada and another to Mumbai. Even though she appears to be a journo I couldn’t find any articles, research papers, books, for an industry leading expert she has certainly travelled under the radar.

Reptile. I noticed her role at Roskill. Managing Director is a job title. Many companies use it, a company could have a hundred managing directors, none of whom will be board members. Saxby was not a board member at Roskill. Innovate Uk is a private organisation that organises jamborees. The Canada tour was organised by them. It had nothing to do with the Government. They like to give their jamborees splendiferous titles so you can use them to big yourself up or justify the expense of the jamboree. A gold star to whoever dreamed up “Critical Minerals Global Expert Mission”. It worked on you. Obvs. China, to make a sentence the words need to be in a particular order. You can’t just write the words down randomly and expect the sentence to make sense.

I am intrigued by the appointment of Alison Saxby as the independent non exec. She is described on the Pre website thus: "Alison is an industry leading expert with over 35 years of experience in industrial minerals and metals. Her expertise includes pricing, deep market knowledge, research, and communications, gained through consultancy projects, minerals trading and commercial reports". To my mind one area where the Company is very weak is corporate governance. Many of the announcements the company has made have been unfulfilled or have been misleading. Why on earth would Pre appoint somebody who has never been on the board of any company. Ever. I scoured the internet for evidence of Alison's work. I found nothing, though I could see some years back she attended a jamboree in Mumbai and made a speech about Fluoride. Her Linkedin profile does not show any experience of minerals trading. She was evidently a part time journo for many years. She says in her profile she worked 12 years for Buchanan Russell Associates. I thought I would check them out, I don't think they exist, Buchanan Russell is just herself (Buchanan is actually one of he middle names). Frankly its all a bit bizarre to me. You are trying to pull off a $500m financing and you choose a non exec who has never been a director, has zero experience of financing, and who could not honestly be described as industry leading. Now if I have got this all wrong I will be the first to apologise but it does look very, very strange to me. But then again this is Pensana!

I think the fall in the share price was a bit of a shock to everyone but the circumstances were exceptional. A stock like this where the company has pretty much established its technology but then has the slow grind of getting traction with sales is always going to be thinly traded. Which is fine unless your register is dominated by a couple of institutions who have liquidity problems, eg baillie gifford. They have endured a really torrid time and have had to sell down their holdings across the board to fund redemptions. So a couple of big sellers of a thinly traded stock and guess what happens? I don't think the company have exactly helped the situation. I don't believe in their acquisitions. All that mattered was getting traction with sales and with 300 plus staff it seems amazing they have been able to achieve so little but there are signs that progress is at last being made. Paying max directors bonuses in the middle of Covid (and in cash not shares...funny that) was ridiculous. The justification was brilliant acquisitions. LOL. The company should imo gone down a different route, lean and mean, yes carry on refining the technology but focus on developing a sales team or if you cannot do it yourself outsource. Then they took their eye off the ball (where was the Chairman) and landed up having to do a massive raise at 20p. You pay a £100,000 per annum to Mr Spicer not sure you're getting great value. Still I think all of this has been a bit of a salutary lesson and hopefully there will be a bit more back to basics. You cannot feed 300 people with £9m of sales. If you are a technology company you probably cannot also be a manufacturer, sales outfit, electronics company, property company etc etc. Does Apple make anything? Isn't their brilliance technology and design? Maybe that should have been Creo's business model? I still think the company will get there but will have burned £100m unnecessarily.

I don't always agree with SP but on this occasion I think he's right. I think Tony wrote the letter. Let's take this line as an illustration:
"Unfortunately, we are restricted in the information that we can share with regards to how we then construct our valuations for any individual holding".
So how do we think M & G values its holding in Pensana? I'm going to think that possibly number of shares multiplied by SP? Well if M & G aren't sharing we will never know!! Come on Tony, you can do better than this. Its almost as bad as that post of yours quote "the directors don't want to be disturbed as they are busy putting the finishing touches to the finance (June 2022)".

Tony I think you've been scammed. Its such a poorly written letter. In fact its an absolute load of c**p. One for the round file!

Tony I have tried to explain to you before why your technical analysis doesn’t work. The approach is fine for a Lloyds or an AstraZeneca but when you apply the analysis to a very thinly traded speculative prospecting company in, let us say, a delicate position, it alls goes to pot. Today is a classic example. You post at 8.12 that your analysis shows relatively strong support at 52.2p. 90 minutes later there are trades at 51.5p. And if there is not an announcement of finance very very soon you can forget about 46p being the strongest support line!

Reptile. I am finding bankruptcy a shocking experience. I blame it on the airlines. Anyhow I absolutely agree my forecast of 33/34p was hasty. I thought we would see that about now but M & G have given a few weeks breathing space. Also I believed the company when they said they had recruited 100 engineers and were full steam ahead at Saltend and Longonjo. Obviously that’s not the case and cash conservation has become the number 1 objective. That said the excursion into the the sixties gave a nice exit and the slide back through the fifties will be rapid.

Does anyone honestly truly believe that PA got a bond offer and rejected it because it was too expensive?? You just have to shake your head at such naivety.

Who cares about anything Theorist says, it will all become immaterial in around two weeks time.

It is going to be a bit hard for him to down ramp once his predictions of failure to finance are shown to be fictional.

Posted by CS Gas. In April 2022!!!! Whoops China! Interesting to see Alkemy on the skids. Imagine spending most of your adult life inflating balloons then letting them go and watching them go crazy before crashing lifeless to the floor. But wasn't it fun whilst it lasted! Alkemy 150p by the end of February.

Why anybody would be so narrow minded that they do not want to hear, read or listen to any contrarian views regarding their beloved Pensana.

Prediction for 2023. I don't think that the company will be able to announce financing for Saltend and Longonjo in Q1. I think the likeliest outcome is that another party enters the fray, Saltend is dumped, they take Longonjo and Pre retains a tiny interest, maybe 5 to 15%. The company has been announcing finance for over 2 years, they have scoured the market and come up with zip. Cannot see why the situation would change. Second prediction. No cure for China's Tourettes.

Christmas Quiz question for you. Can you name the person who posted the message that ICI was a safe investment? By the way ICI went out of business about 15 years ago. Someone should have got their facts checked before they made a fool of themselves!!!.

The M & G placement is a result in the sense the company lives to fight another day. The placing price is sensible, it could not have been at a premium and a discount would have alarmed the market and M & G could well have landed up shooting themselves in the foot. What the placement does tell everyone is that M & G have seen enough evidence that a finance offer is well developed and highly likely. Otherwise they would have written off their existing investment and walked away. Whilst this is good news in one respect it is sobering in another. The terms of any raise are going to have the same impact on the SP as HZM. 45p could well be a long term ceiling. Personally I think Saltend as a stand alone enterprise is a gonna. It was a stunt to try and pull a big ATF grant or a soft loan. Saltend only works if Longonjo works because Saltend will be unable to source meaningful feedstock elsewhere. My bet is the Company has gone right back to the drawing board and concentrated on financing and developing the mine.

Now I don't understand why anyone would be questioning what is going on at Saltend and Longonjo. The Company has told us they have recruited 120 engineers. They have posted a photo of some blue water pipes on their website. They don't have any cash but it is clearly full steam ahead. LOL.

Nice bit of optimism Tony, though it seems oven ready deals have a bit of a curse on them. Interesting too that with 10 days of zero posts the share price has fallen. It seems my Chicom Fud buddies cannot be blamed this time round!! Having said that my crystal ball says SP into the 30's within the next three weeks. I see 33/34p as about the level given no near term hope of finance and impending cash crisis.

Who cares about anything Theorist says, it will all become immaterial in around two weeks time.

It is going to be a bit hard for him to down ramp once his predictions of failure to finance are shown to be fictional.

Posted by CSGas 27th April 2022.

What does CS gas do to your body?
Eyes: excessive tearing, burning, blurred vision, redness. Nose: runny nose, burning, swelling. Mouth: burning, irritation, difficulty swallowing, drooling. Lungs: chest tightness, coughing, choking sensation, noisy breathing (wheezing), shortness of breath.
Could that be the explanation? Difficult to think rationally with all that going on. I would imagine.

China. Like Sundrum I found those posts absolutely disgusting. Wrong on every level for you to claim I have some association with the author.

China for once you’re right. The fishing was poor. There has been so much rain in Tas that the run-off has literally muddied the waters. Lucky I took my clubs! Anyhow I am using the £150 my hedge fund made from shorting 8,000 Pensana shares (as exposed by Hogsnipe) to head for warmer climes. I have a week at UXUA Trancoso then heading for Golfito, Costa Rica. Just trying to make it difficult for my creditors to find me. I will be in Perth in March and if there is anything left from the £150 I will buy you a beer (assuming the inmates are allowed alcohol). Imagine the headline “bankrupt Chicom hedgie buys multi millionaire geriatric 20 bagger a beer!”.