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Https://navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/NSAI_report_sea_lion_isa-01.2024.pdf
Not really sure what this is about but found it amusing (or promising?)
Comments welcome.
N
https://www.macroaxis.com/forecast/RCKHF
Celle
I posted this bit from Canaccord not so much because of their price target but for the following which I think is important:
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“The most significant change compared with the last CPR (March 2023) is that the development scenario has been tailored to fit the identified-and-available FPSO's parameters so providing, we think, a much better real-world basis for the development plan. In turn, we believe that is likely to be a better starting point for securing the development funding required. “
«Sea Lion update - revised development plan fits the (available) kit
Canaccord Genuity view:
Navitas, the operator of the Falkland Islands Sea Lion (Navitas, 65%, operator; Rockhopper, 35%) oil development project has published an updated Competent Person's Report (CPR) on the field. The most significant change compared with the last CPR (March 2023) is that the development scenario has been tailored to fit the identified-and-available FPSO's parameters so providing, we think, a much better real-world basis for the development plan. In turn, we believe that is likely to be a better starting point for securing the development funding required. Navitas continues to target Sea Lion phase 1 final investment decision in 2024.
Speculative BUY 34p»
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N
Back in August Bluewater said they had been awarded a feasibility study for their Munin FPSO (which I think will be our FPSO) and they could very well have advanced to FEED now. After FEED we will get FID (when funding has been sorted and go ahead by relevant authorities) which then kickstart the Detailed Engineering/procurement
Buffet
Correct
Note that from the latest RNS FEED is ONGOING as I understand it.
“ Front end engineering design ("FEED") is ongoing evaluating potential for further accelerated production ramp up and increased capacity.”
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/RKH/sea-lion-and-corporate-update/16297497
LTT
“ Navitas have not just been a breath of fresh air, they have been a typhoon of it” ….. well said!
N
Well maybe it will be a blessing in disguise in the long run as I’m sure the UK gov would have attached an awful lot of terms and conditions (and bureaucracy) to them guaranteeing the bond.
N
Near 1.5 billion dollars has been spent on the project already paid for mostly by Premier. This means Navitas can offer any new partner very good terms. Let’s say the new partner comes in for 20% share:
- Normally he would be expected to pay for past costs (20% of $1.5 billion)
-He would normally also be expected to pay for an outsized share of development costs (say 30% of 1.2 billion)
- This would be a total of $660 million.
Because of past cost already paid for by Premier now Navitas could offer the new partner to come in without paying for past costs. Surely this must be lucrative for anyone looking to earn some money?! (Except woke financiers in Europe and particularly London)
N
Canaccord Genuity: speculative Buy target - 37p
Zeus Capital: Total Risked NAV - 47p
Bot updated since yesterdays news
Fecm
Sticking to my 50p but obviously hoping it will be higher :)
109 million barrels 2C net to Rockhopper very very likely to be developed in the near future and we still have a market cap of only around £72million? This will change now soon!
LTT
Agree.
Also:
“For the Munin, a separate feasibility study had been awarded to Bluewater. “
So they have been working on this with Bluewater since August and must now be confident on the way forward.
From Upstreamonline in August last year:
Bluewater optimistic about redeployment of two idle FPSOs
Studies funded by clients under way for Glas Dowr and Munin floaters
Client interest: the Aoka Mizu FPSO at the Lancaster field in the UK.
Client interest: the Aoka Mizu FPSO at the Lancaster field in the UK.Photo: BLUEWATER
Russell Searancke
Updated 23 August 2023, 10:20
Bluewater has secured early engineering work for its two idle floating production, storage and offloading vessels that could lead to new contractual assignments.
Chief executive: Bluewater's Hugo Heerema.
Chief executive: Bluewater's Hugo Heerema.Photo: BLUEWATER
The Dutch floating production giant has two FPSOs that are both in lay-up at locations in Asia — the Munin and Glas Dowr.
Bluewater said in a results conference call on Tuesday it had been awarded a pre-front end engineering and design study contract with a value of $1.4 million from a client for the Glas Dowr FPSO.
For the Munin, a separate feasibility study had been awarded to Bluewater.
In addition, the Dutch company said there is interest in the Aoka Mizu FPSO, which is currently working on the Lancaster field in the UK North Sea.
Customer interest is highest in the Glas Dowr, and the company is hoping the next step will be to move into the FEED stage on one of the floater's opportunities.
As for the Aoka Mizu, even though the FPSO is active, Bluewater said it has been made available for marketing purposes which led to the led to the pre-FEED study being awarded.
In parallel, Bluewater is in discussions with the operator of the Lancaster field — Prax Group — regarding the FPSO situation.
So this might be our (first) FPSO
https://www.bluewater.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/BLW_FPSO_munin_folder.pdf
This will be a newbuild vessel, which is likely to be owned and operated by Inpex and its partners rather than leased from an FPSO contractor, unlike many of the region’s other FPSO projects.
Due to Indonesia’s local content requirements, the topsides for the Abadi FPSO will be constructed in the republic but this stipulation means overseas contractors such as Seatrium, McDermott and Saipem can vie to build the topsides at their subsidiary companies’ yards there.
Inpex is understood to have held a pre-qualification meeting late last year with prospective bidders for the Abadi FPSO.
Exploiting Tuna
Also offshore Indonesia, Harbour Energy wants an FPSO to exploit its Tuna oil and gas discovery, located near the maritime border with Vietnam.
Front-end engineering and design work for Tuna could commence this year but the exact timing of this floater tender remains unclear, as Harbour moves to bring onboard a new partner or partners to replace the departing Zarubezhneft of Russia.
Sources have pegged the processing capacity of the Tuna FPSO at 30,000 bpd of liquids and 135 MMcfd of gas. The operator will be offering an eight-year charter, with likely extensions of up to three years, Upstream understands.
Another FPSO could also be on the cards for Thailand if US supermajor Chevron finally gets its on-off Ubon gas condensate project off the drawing board.
….and design, are envisaged for this FPSO contract, with the operator said to be eyeing first oil as early as 2026 if it can secure a redeployment — a timeline that could prove ambitious if ConocoPhillips opts for a novel floater based on a tanker conversion.
Earlier touted specifications for the Salam-Patawali FPSO include estimated production capacity of 30,000 to 50,000 barrels per day of oil and up to 600,000 barrels of crude storage. The unit, likely on a multi-year lease, would also be expected to handle some 100 MMcfd of gas.
Also for deployment offshore Malaysia, PTTEP — Thailand’s national E&P player — is looking for an FPSO to replace the ageing unit on its Kikeh oilfield offshore Sabah.
The operator early this year is expected to invite selected qualified floater contractors to take part in a limited tender process.
Kikeh currently produces via its namesake FPSO, which is owned by MISC in a joint venture with SBM Offshore. But the Kikeh FPSO has a hull that is approaching 50 years old and PTTEP and co-venturer Petronas Carigali are therefore in the market to replace the vessel, the current charter of which expires in January 2028.
However, industry sources have cautioned that the FPSO contract might not appeal to all contractors, even if they have capacity to take on the Kikeh job. Upstream earlier reported that PTTEP plans to replicate some of the existing floater’s topsides on the new FPSO, despite it being much smaller, and also plans to retain some of the existing subsea production arrangement.
The new FPSO for Kikeh would be on a fixed 10-year lease with potential extensions. Market sources have said the replacement floater would have oil production capacity of between 40,000 and 46,000 bpd of oil, plus gas handling of up to 90 MMcfd.
The existing unit, the first deep-water FPSO in Malaysia, has a production capacity of 120,000 bpd of crude and 150 MMcfd of gas.
Meanwhile, Japan’s Inpex requires a very large FPSO for its Abadi natural gas project in the remote east of the Indonesian archipelago.
The Abadi FPSO will have gas processing capacity of up to 1.8 billion cubic feet per day and condensate production of 35,000 bpd.
FPSO market remains buoyant in Southeast Asia
Tenders under way and coming up for floaters in the region
Long lived: PTTEP is looking for an FPSO to replace the ageing unit currently working on its Kikeh oilfield offshore Sabah in Indonesia
Long lived: PTTEP is looking for an FPSO to replace the ageing unit currently working on its Kikeh oilfield offshore Sabah in IndonesiaPhoto: MISC
Amanda Battersby
Asia Bureau Chief
Published 22 January 2024, 02:01
Southeast Asia’s FPSO market remains buoyant with several tenders for floating production, storage and offloading vessels under way or expected to hit the streets this year to exploit both gas and oil assets.
But floater projects in the region could find themselves in competition with field developments elsewhere that also require FPSOs.
The Southeast Asian FPSO opportunities are expected to appeal to the likes of the Malaysian contractors Bumi Armada, MISC, Yinson and MTC, as well as India’s Shapoorji Pallonji Energy, Oslo-listed BW Offshore and Netherlands-headquartered Bluewater Energy Services.
The majority of the upcoming projects require leased floaters — either redeployed existing facilities or conversions — while Inpex looks set to buck this trend with a newbuild, likely owned FPSO for its Abadi giant gas field development.
Temporary solution: the Bunga Kertas FPSO.
Related
Chevron bringing old FPSO back to life for temporary Thailand solution
Malaysia’s national upstream company Petronas Carigali is in the market for a sizeable FPSO to exploit its ultra-deepwater Kelidang field offshore Brunei Darussalam.
Petronas Carigali late last year issued tender documents to several FPSO contractors for a leased floater with gas handling capacity of up to 450 million cubic feet per day and the ability to handle small quantities of condensate. It is understood the charter term for the Kelidang FPSO would be at least 12 years, with likely extensions for up to 36 more months.
Bids for this floater contract are due for submission in May and the contract award is expected later this year, after the operator and partners Shell and state-owned Brunei National Petroleum Company (PetroleumBrunei) take the final investment decision.
For Kelidang, one source suggested that an FPSO conversion could be favoured over a redeployed unit because of the limited number of redeployable gas FPSOs in the market.
Opportunities
Malaysia itself likely will have at least two FPSO opportunities, with potential for a third such contract if Petronas Carigali were to revive its stalled deep-water Limbayong-Bestari project offshore Sabah as a floater-based development.
US operator ConocoPhillips is advancing its plans for an FPSO to exploit its Salam and Patawali oil discoveries on Block WL4-00 offshore Sarawak, East Malaysia.
ConocoPhillips has been in talks with floater contractors including Bumi Armada, MISC, Yinson, Bluewater and BW Offshore.
Technical studies, followed by front-end engineering