Member Info for Thenorseman

Does not look like Meloni is changing tac….they are Italians after all

https://www.agricolae.eu/ecco-tutti-i-capogabinetto-del-governo-meloni-al-mipaaf-va-aiello/?print=print

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1
Here are all the cabinet chiefs of the Meloni government. Aiello goes to the Mipaaf

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The Meloni government is moving fast and the collaboration offices of the Prime Minister and the heads of cabinet of the dicasteries have already been defined. At the Mipaaf the state lawyer Giacomo Aiello, who represents the Italian state in the dispute presented to the International Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) by Rockhopper, an oil and gas company with based in the UK. According to Aiello's thesis, private arbitration is an expensive business that favors a handful of specialized lawyers while impoverishing states.


Collaboration offices summary:
Carlo Deodato – general secretary of the PCM
Riccardo Caputi – head of the PdC Meloni cabinet
Francesco Quadri – DAGL department head
Alfonso Celotto – head of the Casellati cabinet
Stefano Varone – Giorgetti head of cabinet (Dario Perrotta legislative office head, Ida Garibaldi spokesperson), Daria Perrotta – Mef Giorgetti legislative coordination
Alfredo Storto head of cabinet (Elena Griglio head of legislative office and Francesco Luciano head of technical secretariat) – Salvini (Vincenzo Nunziata head of cabinet deputy prime minister)
Domenico Siniscalchi – head of the Fitto cabinet
Giuseppe Recinto – head of the Valditara cabinet
Giovanni Panebianco – head of the Abodi cabinet
Mauro Nori – head of the Calderone cabinet (Concetta Ferrari general secretary)
Mario Antonio Scino – head of the Pichetto cabinet (Roberta Spada private secretariat, Fiorella Corrado spokesperson)
Giacomo Aiello – head of the Lollobrigida cabinet
Roberto Alesse – head of the Musumeci cabinet
Marcella Panucci – head of the Bernini cabinet

Federico Eichberg – Urso (legislative Giulio Veltri, technical secretary Marco Calabrò)

Arnaldo Morace Pinelli head of the Schillaci cabinet (Massimo Lasalvia head of the legislative office, Marco Mattei head of the technical secretariat, Giovanni Miele spokesperson)

Claudio Tucciarelli-Calderoli

Alberto Rizzo head of cabinet and Giusy Bartolozzi deputy - Nordio

Luigi Fiorentino head of cabinet - Zangrillo

…so far while we are waiting

Bit of summary

https://www.energychartertreaty.org/fileadmin/DocumentsMedia/Cases/108_Rockhopper_Italia_S.p.A.__Rockhopper_Mediterranean_Ltd__and_Rockhopper_Exploration_Plc_v._Italian_Republic/Decision_on_the_Intra-EU_Jurisdictional_Objection.pdf

I have no clue…. neither does the ad hoc Committee it seems :)

….Delaware last year were about 25% less productive on average than its wells the year before, according to Novi Labs data.

Chevron executives said last week the company missed its oil-production target in the Delaware, citing higher-than-expected depletion rates. The company plans to revise its approach in the Permian, they said, shifting some drilling into New Mexico, and targeting areas that are likely more productive—moves that will reduce its pace of activity somewhat.

Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth said last week the rate of production growth and drilling activity the U.S. shale industry saw a decade ago “is unlikely to be repeated,” though the Permian still has areas that haven’t been developed. Chevron plans to boost production in the Permian to 1 million barrels a day by 2025, eventually plateauing at 1.2 million later this decade.

Devon has drilled some of the most productive wells the Delaware had ever seen, in an area the company dubbed Boundary Raider. In 2020, its average well pumped more than 342,000 barrels over a nine-month period, but the following year, its average fell to more than 167,000 barrels, according to FLOW President Tom Loughrey. Companies’ midlevel wells are still producing steadily, but gushers are harder to come by, Mr. Loughrey said.

“The big well is coming down hard right now,” he said.

Rick Muncrief, Devon’s chief executive, attributed the productivity decline to maturing U.S. oil-and-gas fields. “I’m not terribly surprised, and I’m not terribly alarmed,” he said, saying that wells drilled in the Boundary Raider area still generated excellent returns for the company. Mr. Muncrief said that tight crude supplies pushing oil prices higher would make tapping into less productive formations economically viable for operators.

Investment bank Raymond James Financial Inc.estimated in a September report that public producers and private operators in the Delaware hold about 7.2 years of sweet spots, and less than eight years in the Midland basin, the other major portion of the Permian.

Shale’s sluggishness means global oil markets will have to rely on Middle Eastern crude over the next decades, said Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources Co.

“We’re just not gonna have that big growth pump like we used to,” he said of U.S. crude production.

From WSJ March 8:

At a major industry conference here this week, executives cited the stagnation in shale, saying it signaled a return to more dependence on foreign energy sources and more challenging times ahead for major U.S. companies, after most of them posted record earnings last year.

“The world is going back to a world that we had in the ’70s and the ’80s,” said ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Ryan Lance, during a panel at the conference called CERAWeek by S&P Global. He warned that OPEC would soon supply more of the world’s oil.

Oil production from the best 10% of wells drilled in the Delaware portion of the Permian was 15% lower last year, on average, than top 2017 wells, according to data from analytics firm FLOW Partners LLC. Meanwhile, the average well put out 6% less oil than the prior year, according to an analysis of data from analytics firm Novi Labs.

The atrophy of once-booming sweet spots has big implications for the global oil market, which years ago could count on rapidly growing U.S. oil production to blunt the effects of supply disruptions and rising demand. Without successful exploration or technological advances, the industry’s inventory constraints are expected eventually to push companies to tap lower quality wells that would require higher oil prices to attract investment, industry executives say.

Oil production in the U.S. rose from about 7.2 million barrels a day a decade ago to a high of about 13 million barrels a day before the pandemic. But domestic output last year grew at one-third of the annual average pace seen in shale’s heyday from 2017 to 2019, and hasn’t yet caught up with prepandemic levels.

The slowdown was mostly because of investor pressure on companies to curtail spending and limit growth in favor of generating higher returns. At the same time, weaker well results in the Delaware basin contributed to flattening purput.

U.S. output grew about half as fast as many forecasters initially expected last year, and is projected to increase by about the same amount this year, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The recent degradation in well performance has stoked executives and investors’ concerns about the industry’s runway for growth, and has led companies to consider mergers this year.

Companies such as Chevron Corp. CVX -1.31% , Devon Energy Corp. and others that have held the Permian up as a central pillar of their future plans saw top wells yield less crude last year than the previous year.

Chevron, one of the largest landholders in the Permian, drilled some of the region’s most prolific wells in Culberson County, Texas, but some of its newer wells there have seen productivity decline.

The wells Chevron brought online in Culberson County last year are ultimately expected to produce 42% less oil, on average, than wells that began producing in 2018, according to FLOW’s estimates. The top 10% of wells Chevron brought online across the Delaware last

Old article in FT 2015 gives some insight into FIG thinking.

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The authorities in Stanley expect to receive a 9 per cent share of production revenues through a longstanding framework offered to oil explorers, while successful developers will also pay a tax of 26 per cent on company profits to the Falklands government.

Stephen Luxton, director of mineral resources for the Falklands government, defends the terms on offer to successful developers — seen as being among the most generous in the world.

“It’s an important principle to maintain fiscal stability for companies considering investing in projects over 15 to 25 years,” he says. “Companies need a good return to work here as it’s such a remote area.”

Mr Luxton is reluctant to be drawn on just how much money could flow into the coffers of the Falklands government should the Sea Lion field proceed to development — although he agrees it could be transformational.

The islands, which have fewer than 3,000 inhabitants, generate an annual gross domestic product of £100m — or less than £30,000 a head.

It’s an important principle to maintain fiscal stability for companies considering investing in projects over 15 to 25 years. Companies need a good return to work here as it’s such a remote area

Stephen Luxton, Falkland Islands government
The islands’ economy has traditionally been based on sheep farming, although much of the Falklands government’s revenues are now derived from exports of frozen squid, fished by foreign vessels whose crews are recruited in Korea, Vietnam and other Asian countries.

All that will change if the Sea Lion field proceeds. The first stage of the field’s development would deliver 60,000 barrels of crude a day, and the Falklands government could feasibly receive $2.5bn in oil-related tax over 15 years. That equates to close to $1m of tax per head of population from the first stage of the project alone.

Another $2.5bn of tax could be obtained from a potential second phase of the Sea Lion field’s development. If there is further exploration success in the waters off the Falklands, the islands could secure billions of dollars more in tax over the coming decades.

Mr Luxton and other Falklands officials have visited Norway and discussed how to apply the lessons learned by the Nordic country in managing its vast hydrocarbon wealth accrued since the 1970s.

“It’s an issue that has been firmly on our radar for a number of years,” says Mr Luxton. “We have to look after this resource responsibly and look to stretch the benefit over several generations.”

From FT yesterday:

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“There is a fine line of uncertainty,” says Amy Myers Jaffe, a professor at New York University. Raising prices now, while many poorer consumer countries are already struggling with debt and a strong dollar, “runs the risk of leading the world into a larger financial crisis?.?.?.?where high oil prices aggravate other destabilising factors and, bingo, we see a collapse of everything including oil prices”.

Others think Saudi Arabia is betting the world economy can shoulder costlier oil, especially as China’s economy reopens. Saudi Arabia is conscious about stunting demand, but believes a price of up to $120 is tolerable, says Amrita Sen, head of research at Energy Aspects.

She thinks the price rise this week was mainly driven by traders looking to cover short positions, but expects a much stronger price surge later in the year.

Meanwhile, producer countries are also feeling the impact of higher inflation and are trying to boost their own revenues in response, argues oil hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand. And crude remains relatively cheap, Andurand argues.

In inflation-adjusted terms, Thursday’s Brent settlement price of $85.12 a barrel would equate to about $73 five years ago. The record-high oil price of $147 a barrel in 2008 would be closer to $200 today.

“If you look at Opec countries they’re suffering from inflation like everyone else — their imports are up a lot in dollar terms,” says Andurand, who has predicted oil prices could hit $140 a barrel this year. “They’re clearly saying that $80 or $90 a barrel is too low. It’s likely to be much higher than $100 before they react and start raising production.”

Rystad Energy now believes $110/barrel by summer! And stay above $100 for most of the rest of 2023.

https://e24.no/energi-og-klima/i/8Jx3zx/rystad-tror-oljeprisen-naar-110-dollar-til-sommeren-etter-opec-kutt

Talking about Bluewater: They have Bleo Holman FPSO becoming available end 2024 ( latest end 2025).

https://www.repsolsinopecuk.com/news/repsol-sinopec-announce-contract-extension-of-bleo-holm-fpso

https://www.bluewater.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Bleo-Holm.pdf

https://www.repsolsinopecuk.com/news/repsol-sinopec-announce-contract-extension-of-bleo-holm-fpso

Whackford

The Final Investment Decision is normally based on front end engineering design (FEED) where the cost has been estimated to within +/- 20% or so. To do that in our case we need to know details of the FPSO we are going to redeploy so we know what changes are required to the topsides process system and hull and also cost of the lease. So I would think Navitas would issue a letter of intent first with a FPSO operator like Bluewater for example like this:
https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/65942/oilexco_enters_loi_with_bluewater_to_deploy_fpso_at_north_seas_huntington/

The Falklands war started.

God bless the those who lost their lives.

From 2021 Annual Report: “Employees
The Group had 12 employees at the year end, two of whom are Executive Directors. The Group seeks to employ people on the basis of merit and ability to perform the required roles. The Group does not discriminate on any grounds including race, gender, religion, age, nationality or sexual orientation”
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12 employees to do what???

We have finished the exploration and appraisal drilling - all paid for.
We will still have to do development drilling whilst FPSO is upgraded at the yard and later

Next big news is the contract for the FPSO selected to be redeployed. This will be very soon now as they need to know the scope and cost and scope of changes/upgrade they have to do to get to FID.

…..
The Opportunity FPSO, which is moored in Singapore at the Keppel Shipyard facility, was the only redeployment candidate in BW's fleet, and the company was promoting the floater as a versatile vessel, suitable for gas and oil projects, with gas projects preferred given its high gas production capability of 350 million cubic feet per day.

The floater was converted from a tanker in 2007. It is a spread-moored FPSO with an oil processing capability of 35,000 barrels per day and a storage capacity of 900,000 barrels.

BW told Upstream that its strategy for new projects is to seek long-term leases that require a new-built FPSO like it is currently doing with the Barossa project in Australia.

However, on redeployments, the company has approached this with more flexibility in terms of the commercial model that can be applied.

Bumi options
As for the Armada Claire FPSO, its Malaysian owner Bumi Armada has been seeking a buyer or a redeployment opportunity for some time.

Bumi said last month in its annual financial results that it was engaging with potential buyers of the vessel, and numerous vessel inspections had been carried out.


Malaysian floater player pins down strategy for African FPSO
Read more
Market sources have told Upstream that a sale agreement has been reached — but not yet completed —with a European shipowner that has designs on redeploying, or re-selling, the FPSO to another party.

A spokesperson for Bumi said the company was unable to comment on the Armada Claire at this moment in time.

The Armada Claire, which is understood to be currently moored in Indonesia, was converted into an FPSO by Keppel Shipyard in 2013 from a 1993-built tanker.

The vessel has an oil production capacity of 30,000 barrels per day and a storage capacity of 800,000 bpd.

It has worked on just one project - the Balnaves oilfield off Western Australia - which ended prematurely in 2016 when Woodside terminated the FPSO's contract.

Redeployment moves
There has been a flurry of interest in redeployment options in recent months.

In February, Dubai'sDrydocks World announced a joint venture with Aker Solutions to upgrade the FPSO Petrojarl Knarr for Equinor’s Rosebank oil and gas field off the coast of Shetland in Scotland.

Sources consulted by Upstream reported a wave of interest in the OSX-1 FPSO, recently reported arriving in Norway after a long period out of operation.

"The OSX-1 is a candidate for seven or eight different projects around the world. I think it will be secured soon," said one market source.

Plans afoot for ageing FPSOs under new ownership

The two vessels are the Opportunity FPSO and the Armada Claire FPSO

31 March 2023 4:45 GMT UPDATED 31 March 2023 7:14 GMT
By Russell Searancke , Nishant Ugal and Iain Esau in Oslo , New Delhi and London
The fate of two ageing floating production, storage and offloading vessels that have not operated for some time is becoming clearer as fresh assignments loom under new owners and the number of units available for redeployment dwindles.


FPSO contractors set sights on five promising floater prospects in South East Asia
Read more

BW Offshore surprises with sale of gas FPSO to mystery buyer
Read more
The two vessels in question are the BW Opportunity FPSO, and the Armada Claire FPSO.

The FPSO market was taken by surprise earlier this month when BW Offshore revealed it had agreed to sell the Opportunity for $125 million.

It was a surprise because BW was actively marketing the floater for redeployment and, given the vessel is designed for high gas production rates, it was assumed BW would secure a viable new project for the Opportunity.

BW has not identified the buyer, even after completing the sale on 15 March, but multiple FPSO market sources have indicated the floater has been purchased for use in the Mediterranean Sea, with most arrows pointing at Turkey.

One well-placed source told Upstream that state-owned Turkish Petroleum (TPAO) made informal approaches to the market last year about ordering a newbuild FPSO, but those inquiries do not appear to have been followed up.

If Turkey is the destination for BW Opportunity, there is a possibility it could be deployed on one of TPAO's deepwater gas and condensate discoveries in the Black Sea, some of which it is in the process of developing through a long-distance subsea tieback to shore.

There has also been speculation the FPSO could be deployed in Libya, a country with whom Ankara has close ties, or perhaps in Cyprus where TPAO has previously drilled controversial exploration wells (which were thought to be unsuccessful) in the Cypriot exclusive economic zone.

The only other known player in Turkey with offshore assets is US player Trillion Energy which is developing shallow-water gas in the Black Sea.

In the broader Mediterranean, significant gas discoveries have been made in Cyprus, Israel and Egypt in recent years by the likes of ExxonMobil, Eni and Energean which have the potential to host an FPSO.

Back to BW?
BW told Upstream the company is not at liberty to disclose the buyer.

However, the Oslo-listed player said this would be re-addressed if ongoing discussions with the buyer resulted in BW also doing the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning work to upgrade the floater, and BW secures a five-year transitional operations and maintenance contract.

The Opportunity FPSO, which is moored in Singapore at the Keppel Shipyard facility, was the only redeployment candidate

RAB Capital should soon have sold their 3.75% holding they had left on March 13th. Then we should move up !

Hi JEBR

Go to link that P777 gave us
https://zeuscapital.co.uk/exclusives/5550654790/

Then it says : Listen to the audio note below, and read the full research here.

Clich “here” and register and you will get the pdf report.

Basically it says they have left their Forecast unchanged only updated their valuation (risked NAV) and core NAV.

So the 188p unrisked should be higher if updated to reflect the 200 million barrels extra (now 722 million).

kind regards
N.

P777
Thank you for that link.

Risked NAV 51p
Unrisked NAV 188p

And we are currently trading at 10p!

Up we go