Member Info for Thenorseman

Nic seemed to think the 7z well, being deviated with its toe 70m lower than the heel, actually was producing water from the toe (closer to the aquefier) rather than from the heel as HUR have told us so far. Is there anyway to know for sure where along the wellbore the water come from? Also if the water indeed come from the toe could easily isolate this part using a workover rig ? If the water is not from the toe but from the heel it may well be perched water anyway I would think?

5.4 close today

BTFATH1: “Just remembered about the 700 million of tax losses they can offset, ..”

Agrree. I assume this 700 million(together with our cash and oil production) could be very beneficial for other UK operating companies (oil producers) that has already written down most of their capex, in particular if they have access to cheap capital (as Stu mentioned). Very tax efficient. Or am I wrong ?

Going to be interesting to see if they get a spike in water cut on restart indicating perched water. Most Likely we will never know (unless some lady has a dream again).

“Likely to be shorted to death again.”

I dont think so SuperRoty. The share price didnt fall of a cliff after the last RNS warning of risk of reserve downgrade. Remember the shorters do have to buy back the shares at some point. Remember this from the latest RNS: “This assessment does not take into account any production enhancement options for the Lancaster field which are currently under evaluation”. With a only 100 million market cap, 17000bopd and possible enhancement options the shorters might have had their day already.

Imho

N

DC

Im sure I read somewhere the FPSO prod water capacity being 20kbpd (tot liq handling cap 35kbpd). Thus 27kbpd in total with a water cut of 74% would be the case. Could be wrong.

N.

Nic. Lincoln they assigned P10 of 331 million at 1789 m OWC as I understand. This would be bigger now then I assume?

Nic. Hurricane assigned 62 million barrels to such an OWC back in 2014. If you are right im not sure if that figure would go up or down now that they have a better reservoir model.

Page 27:

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/download_file/force/126/222

BB. Interesting that on Rolvsnes the distance to the OWC is only 35-40m

Makes much sense to me. The fact that with a relative modest drawdown they get all this produced water, which they cannot with CONFIDENCE argue all of is perched water, the OWC COULD be shallower (so that the drawdown pressure is sufficient to lift the water up to the wellbore). Only if with time water production decreases to suggest perched water (only) the reserves is re-booked. In the meantime this is a nice excuse to delay? commitment well.

“ Wireline oil samples 205/21-7 Deepest at 1,669m TVDSS”
Confused. Was there oil at 1669m at the time or not?
Page 13
https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/download_file/force/109/222

RNS states that there now is a”reasonable probability that the oil water contact in the Lancaster field is shallower than the range of oil water contacts envisaged in the 2017 Competent Person's Report by RPS Energy.”

Just stating that company now accepts this might happen and that it might not be perched water we are producing. Does not mean they think it is not perched water just that they cannot exclude this scenario as there is a reasonable probability that in fact this is what is happening. If so the OWC is obviously higher.

Oil price
The oil price continues to quietly show fortitude despite most analysts trying to do it down. Yes we all see some shaving of demand forecasts due to the virus as well as increased supply from Opec+ since the start of August.

But in the here and now the US stimulus is under discussion and data such as factory orders are showing that there is scope for growth, markets ‘crawled’ higher by a very decent 3.9% in the Dow, 5.6% in the S&P and 7.2% at the Nasdaq…

Finally the API stats not only continued a better trend but also to defeat the analyst community, crude inventories actually drew by 8.6m barrels when the teenage scribblers had a build of 3m b’s penned in…How we laughed until we think what these buffoons are being paid.

...Equinor !

PlantedBHA Thats why I said I have no idea what price they actually get now.

Anyway the CPR assumed:” RPS recommends that a number of additional discounts be applied to Lancaster crude on top of the quality discount to allow for discounts relating to a new crude, TAN, and sulphur content. RPS has applied a total discount to Brent of -$4.5/bbl for Lancaster crude in the first year of production, followed by a total discount of -$4.0/bbl for all subsequent years. The Lancaster Base Price forecast in MOD, assuming first oil production in January 2019, is shown in Table 9.3 with Low and High Price cases for valuation sensitivities”.

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/application/files/4615/4210/4673/Hurricane_Lancaster_CPR_2May17_Issued.pdf

Page 51

As per the RPS CPR our Lancaster oil would trade at $4-$4.5 barrel discount to Brent. I have no idea what HUR actually get for a price ax I haven’t seen anything written. However, with that in mind the $35/barrel hedge seems to me too a very clever move.

“plus the current CPR, though likely to be downgraded, “

I dont think HUR said it was LIKELY to be downgraded, just that it is possible!

A forecast upturn in oil markets by 2022 could unleash a fresh wave of investments in offshore oil projects whose CO2 footprints are far less than that of shale, according to a report.

Rob West, founder of US-based energy technology research consultancy Thunder Said Energy (TSE), believes oil markets look primed for a new up-cycle by 2022 that could culminate in Brent crude prices exceeding $80 per barrel, giving confidence to greenfield offshore investors.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/finance/offshore-spending-primed-to-rebound-by-2022-amid-80-oil-says-report/2-1-848858

Nice one Urraca. You could ask how those ESPs are arranged (ie where exactly).

Daltry. “Negative thought”? Please read my post again if you are able to.

And by the way...who are you to tell me to go away? Is this your personal board?