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Risked NAV 22.7p, unrisked NAV 114p!

«Published 6 May 2025, 21:08

First oil is imminent from a pair of major US Gulf developments, executives at two operators said on Tuesday at the Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston.

The first, Beacon Offshore Energy’s Shenandoah field, is set to begin production in June, according to Michael Clarke, the company’s vice president of deep-water developments.

Meanwhile, the LLOG Exploration-operated Salamanca floating production system (FPS) is set to come online in August, according to Glenn Mediamolle, vice president of offshore development for the Louisiana-based operator.

Shenandoah, which will produce 120,000 barrels per day of crude once up and running, is in the “final stages” of commissioning, Clarke said.

“We should have that online hopefully in the next six weeks,” he told the audience at OTC.

Once online, Shenandoah will be the second development in the US Gulf to cross the 20k barrier — industry parlance for deep-water projects that can withstand 20,000 pounds per square inch (psi) of pressure. The first 20k project to begin production was Chevron’s Anchor in 2024.

Other 20k projects are coming in the years ahead. Shell’s Sparta is set for first oil in 2028, followed by BP’s Kaskida in 2029.

Meanwhile, Clarke said Beacon continues to progress on Monument, a 17-mile tieback to Shenandoah that was sanctioned in March 2024.

Clarke said the company is focused on execution ahead of possible first oil in 2026 from Monument.

“That work is ongoing now,” Clarke said of Monument.

Beacon is also progressing work on another development at Shenandoah, to be called Shenandoah South, Clarke said. Front-end engineering and design (FEED) work is underway and, if all goes to plan, first oil is possible by 2028, assuming Beacon sanctions the project.

Beacon has also maintained its timeline for first oil from Zephyrus by the first quarter, according to Clarke.»

https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/first-oil-on-the-way-for-two-major-us-gulf-developments/2-1-1815768

Airhead it is relevant because the companies that might farmin/co invest in Juno would be existing gold producers and they will now have more money because of POG than before to invest and would look at the future POG more optimistically.

US$ 3412.97 at the moment.

Not irrelevant!

Agree that the news flow is zero and has been for months. We need progress updates on Juno with some nice presentations with what they know and have modelled so far asap.

For Namibia I am really getting worried now that we will lose the licence in October once it is clear we haven’t met our obligations to carry out 3D seismic and interpret this seismic etc. We are now soon in May!

N

😆👍

Hi Cyber

My Mistake. Not really sure why I wrote Luno instead of Juno.

In my native country there is a saying that a loved child has many names so .. :)

Kind regards

N

From FT today..

——

“Like many investors, quant funds began the year strongly, helped by optimism that Trump’s plans for tax cuts and deregulation would fuel economic growth.

But markets turned as fears grew over the impact of his proposed tariffs, with stocks plunging following his so-called “liberation day” on April 2.Treasuries, typically seen as a haven asset during times of stock market stress, have also sold off sharply, wrongfooting some investors.

“Anything that happens on this scale and in this short an amount of time is going to create a lot of damage,” said an executive at another quant hedge fund.

But the executive at the first firm said that while the market shock from Trump’s tariffs had been painful, the subsequent “ripple effects” of the huge policy shift could still be beneficial for quant hedge funds. For instance, if tariffs lead to higher inflation, then assets such as gold could continue to rise.

“Trend following often needs big macro shifts because that is where you see knock on effects in different markets with trends you can exploit,” the person added.”

Jersey

This is my thinking as well sort of. Omar is not an oily, more mining. Thus farm out of Namibia he can concentrate on the mining side, having let the farmin company look after Namibia. Once we (hopefully) get some positive Luno drill results we should probably be in a position to hire more people to push a Luno roadshow and farmout together with Callum.

Spot on Ralph

«Meanwhile, a recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas suggested a WTI breakeven of $65 per barrel across the US shale plays, including $61 in the Midland basin, $62 in the Delaware basin and $70 for the rest of the Permian basin.

As a result, operators in the US Lower 48 states face “significant risks” that could slow their production growth, Rystad said.

“The corporate reality for public players means that already modest growth could be at risk if prices remain near $60 per barrel,” Matthew Bernstein, Rystad’s vice president of North American oil and gas, wrote.

Nearly all oil growth in the US Lower 48 states this year is pegged to come from the Permian, where breakevens are the most commercial of any US onshore basin, Rystad said.

Over the last several years, however, many US producers, including those in the Permian, have used a business model that is “far more difficult” in this new price environment, Rystad said. They have promised high dividends to their shareholders, putting the basin’s growth at risk for operators with less lucrative acreage.

Any growth outside of the Permian in the US Lower 48 is “already unlikely”, Berstein wrote; a downshift in the prolific basin will decelerate the country’s production growth rate if prices remain subdued.»

https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/global-market-turmoil-could-spell-doom-for-us-operators-rystad/2-1-1803981

CHEGG…Member Since 8th Apr 2025 (ie since today)

!!!

Tx Sheep. $7000!

«Conclusion:

Short-term price predictions for gold suggest an increase in its value and demand in the next years, at least until 2030, showing the price could gradually rise to around $7,000 an ounce.

But price predictions beyond this date could depend on different scenarios. Ultimately, when it comes to long-term forecasts, there are fundamental questions to consider regarding the importance of safe-haven assets like gold in an ever-changing financial landscape.»

Cyber

I hope you are right as I quite like Omar.

The reality is Neither Omar or any of the board members have any experience in oil exploration.

https://geoexplorationlimited.com/about-us/board-of-directors/

It is therefore obvious we need to have met the licence commitments by September as I doubt very much the Namibian government would extend the licence to a bunch of finance people only, considering the progress so far.

So hopefully Omar is aware of the urgency of a farmout and we will get news very soon.

Kind regards

Cyber

Things have changed see link below.

I also understand governments are fed up with small oil minnows sitting on oil exploration licences for years and years without adding doing much just hoping for a large oil company to eventually knock on the door offering to pay for seismic and drilling. They need progress on these lisences to get any oil found and produced while there still is a market for it.

https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2024/01/namibia-establishes-new-oil-and-mining-licensing-system

Working backwards from end of (?or beginning) of September:

-Interpreting seismic September&August

-Processing Seismic June&July

-booking, moving seismic vessel and shooting seismic April&May

So something needs to happen over the next few weeks wrt farmin or we will lose our Namibian license. I would personally get very upset with Omar if he manages to %uck this up!

Kind regards

N

Must be news soon on farmout as we need to do the seismic by September! I don’t think the Namibians will be granting any further delay considering we have had the licence for so long without much progress. There would be plenty of oil companies wanting to take over the licence if we lost it.

Now soon in April. Omar better just agree something with someone very soon or we will end up with pathing in Namibia?

N

RNS 14 August 2023:

«Global (AIM: GBP) is pleased to announce that the Namibian Ministry of Mines and Energy ("Ministry") has given approval for the Company and its partners to proceed to the First Renewal Period ("FRP") of Walvis Basin licence PEL 94, with a duration of two years from September 2023 to September 2025.

The work commitment for the FRP is to acquire, process and interpret 2,000 kms of 3D seismic data (the "3D Seismic") - carried over from the current Initial Exploration Period ("IEP") and to drill a well contingent upon the results of interpretation of the 3D Seismic. The original well commitment for the FRP - as specified in the Petroleum Agreement for PEL 94 - was firm, rather than contingent.»

Https://youtu.be/uZ7scpLgrdM

Https://youtu.be/uZ7scpLgrdM

Https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/goldman-sachs-raises-end-2025-gold-price-forecast-3300-per-ounce-2025-03-26/

Agree Jersey. Hopefully no major sellers at least until 0.225 the last raise.

N