Member Info for TheMillipede824

Ironically I think because Israel assumed the generally improving economic conditions in Gaza (which you don’t hear much about in U.K. media) would prevent Hamas wanting to act in this way.

Clearly it is right that war is not good for share prices. But Israeli territory is now back under Israel’s control and we are back to rockets being lobbed in from neighbouring territories, which is pretty much where we were last week, and have been for a long time.

Twonko, I was having a discussion elsewhere about this today. FWIW My take is simply that with cash yielding 5%, no one is going to invest here for 7% when it is hard to understand whether there might be any capital gains. 10% feels better, so current levels might bring back some buyers, but I don’t think the recent offshore wind license failure really helped to be honest. It created too much uncertainty, and that won’t bring back investors IMO.

Presumably there are some seasonal impacts on revenue. Intuitively it seems likely to me the two halves of each year might show different revenue characteristics. Has anyone crunched any numbers?

“Peek SP was 9th March 2018 at around £12+ “

Also worth remembering YU have not been issuing loads of shares to keep going.

Don’t see why we can’t see £12 again soon, tbh.

RB, the takeover code does not apply to AIM stocks that are registered overseas. They are not circumventing anything. HTH.

They are, but only Spire has been down virtually every day since October. I am slowly building a position (in Spire, not here), but it will be interesting to see what the next few years hold. Very speculative holdings. Wonder what the premium/discount will look like next time they publish the NAV.

Spire still tanking. The initial reason appears to be the conversion of warrants into 80m new shares. I can’t work out why that wasn’t already priced in, since it was always going to happen and didn’t raise new money for the company. But it was a lot of warrants, I guess.

I thought perhaps the price had continued falling for US tax loss selling to end of December, but it is still dropping now. Awful. Maybe a decent entry point in a few weeks or months. Who knows.

"there's zero chance of UKEF support"

The latest Navitas investor presentation, albeit a year old now, begs to differ. (Page 16.)

https://ir.navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Navitas-Capital-Market-Presentation-10.20_Final-web.pdf

Sonagol farmed in to Melbana's acreage in northern Cuba. It is hard to know how large they are but maybe something similar?

My view is mid tier is better. We need someone with a sense of urgency to develop the project, not a company so large, with so many projects, that they won't really care if this takes another 5, 10 or 20 years.

BWDIK

I suspect a mid tier producer. Houston is full of them, worth anywhere between $500m to $5bn. Won't be anyone like BP and won't be Chinese (I think the Americans would be able to stop that). More than the precise terms, they need someone who can and is willing to advance the project. IMO.

The share price is dropping because 135m shares are being dumped into the market. That is nothing to do with posters here.

On the other hand, there are some of you posting deliberately misleading positive speculation that might be helping keep the share price up while that dumping is in progress.

I am sure most of you are lovely, but I don't think market makers are the ones doing the manipulating. Keep safe and happy investing!

Thanks for disagreeing respectfully Nelly. You are assuming Potter ever really believed his share holding was worth the then market price, which in the absence of oil in the Bahamas, it was not. FWIW I imagine right now his professional pride is hurting more than his wallet, although he did nothing wrong.

I would merely advocate caution. However much Potter might or might not be upset, he can not conjure commercial quantities of oil out of thin air. Bahamas was high risk while the Trinidad assets have been worked for years by various parties and never produced much. BPC have enough cash for two drills and have, of necessity, begun raising money and paying for services in a way that is especially detrimental to the short term share price. They need drill success, and they need it soon IMO.

I assume we are all here to make money. That is why we invest, right?

Then ask a question: is it better to learn from people who make money or from people who lose money?

Once you have done that your idea of a troll might radically alter, since all of the bulls are currently underwater.

Irene (and others such as Pro) are the only useful people here.

Young Gun, On AIM price is everything. Consider a different company, Sirius Minerals. The ex CEO made 10 x his money investing in the York Potash licenses, over the ten years from 2010 to 2020, a very happy outcome for him.

Find me a retail investor who made similar gains! (In fact it won't be possible since the lowest price Sirius ever reached was approx 2p and most investors bought in at prices ranging from 10p to 40p. Sirius was eventually taken over at 5p a share.)

HTH

Potter's shareholding is relevant only if we know how much he paid for the shares. If they were free or otherwise discounted he is not remotely incentivised in the same way as ordinary shareholders.

Can't quite believe I am posting on here but this is the most delusional pile of rubbish I have ever heard.

If BPC had reported commercial quantities of oil the share price would have soared. The market cap would, in all likelihood sit somewhere between £500m and £1bn, implying a share price range of 10-20p.

BPC could then, fairly easily, raised a couple of hundred million to fund an appraisal campaign and any extra costs of drilling the P1 "gusher" would have been forgotten.

This is the alternative reality and spelling it out should make it clear to everyone that BPC are not somehow "hiding" an otherwise commercial find. The drill did not succeed. C'est tout.

Falls on results day are pretty common, I think. The result seem a pretty good effort IMO, in the circumstances.