Member Info for TheMillipede824

Servalan, I don’t really have any great insight. Personally speaking, I am not that keen on a takeover, which would get us a share price premium only once. Whereas I am hoping Shield can become a structural compounder and give shareholders value for years to come many times over.

Worth just adding the company seems to have absorbed a meaningful mid quarter disruption and still delivered positive EBIT and cash generation. 12 months ago investors had faith in the commercial ramp, the cost discipline and the cash runway. All three have now been demonstrated and have continued in a quarter that is Shield’s weakest seasonally with a new headwind in New York. Arguably this demonstrates really quite impressive operational resilience.

Meh. A few things to dislike. The CFO going isn’t especially a red flag IMO as he has another job. But they need to find someone else soon IMO as what is concerning is Lundstrom taking on two executives roles, even for an interim period. Distraction at a critical moment, yada, is a distinct possibility.

New York has introduced prior authorisation, which is a new structural headwind, rather than a one off as some prescribers likely won’t bother with the paperwork. That said, we don’t know the impact and there is genuine seasonality too (insurance deductible resets in January are well documented in US pharma). The shift to commercially insured from Medicaid is the right move, but not straightforward eg different access dynamics, higher net selling prices but lower volumes, again we don’t know the impact.

That said, EBIT positive is very good. And probably the most important data point in the update.

NVDA up 25% in a month. The largest company in the world. Wowsers.

I think what the director buys specifically do here is invalidate the “management don’t really believe their own turnaround narrative” risk outside investors face at times like this. The results were genuinely a bit messy but I think the share price drop was overdone. It looks like management agrees.

It is worse than that Duncan. The stock exchange doesn’t tell us whether ANY trade is a buy or sell.

The buy/sell tags on here, and other sites, are inferred from the spread. Which could be wrong.

Who knows. Volumes still very low. Institutions not going anywhere. Very under the radar. Wonder if it can push through 300p?

Anon, I think your question is a fair one. I suspect long term it doesn’t really matter because, in my view, Wise could take over virtually the entire global currency transfer market. The only other system, Swift, simply cannot compete because it is slow and expensive by design. Wise is already far cheaper and far faster than Swift can ever be and banks are starting to realise they might as well sign up to Wise Platform because it isn’t easy to build the network Wise already has. I think a lot of people don’t really understand this potential - I strongly suspect once Wise moves to New York American investors will get this more readily - and I see the Sunday Times put out a sell recommendation because they dislike founder enhanced voting shares which didn’t stop - say - Meta becoming a trillion dollar plus company.

Short piece in Money Week about MNL. Suggests there are rumours of a merger with another UK listed tech trust. Doesn’t say who, only someone targeted by Saba and hints the trade off would be 1/ for them, Shepard’s massive stake would help fight off Saba and 2/ for MNL the combined group would be well away from the 35% limit on public shares so could resume buy backs.

I agree. Although I don’t think it is quite right to say the trust risks losing its IT status. They have stopped buy backs and said if the buy backs continued there would be that risk. And new dividend policy announced today.

In a way, SABA could be good news for MNL. Anyway, I think the discount (est around 25%) is now too high so have bought some of these today. For me this is mainly a discounted way to buy Nvidia and Microsoft shares.

I know lots of people think this is near the top, that the magnificent 7 will run out of steam, and they might. But AI capex spending by hyperscalers carries on regardless and it will be a few years really before we begin to know if AI is something, or not. I think the rally will run at least till then.

Pretty solid trading update in the circumstances IMO. Some tariff uncertainty, but margin improvements and profits exceed.

You could say the same about Sintana. Share price was $1.30 last summer. Half that now.

Challenger shareholders keep exposure to the enlarged entity, which remains a fairly speculative play.

It is not like being taken over by BP or something, where we would totally lose exposure to the likely gains.

Today’s announcement is not bad IMO. Removes bankruptcy and dilution risks.

You are correct, Lemon, cherry picking won’t make money here. That said, some facts, including Ukrainian participation and views during WW1/WW2 are not that relevant.

The relevant fact of the war, and the reason we should help is that Ukraine didn’t ask to be invaded, didn’t ask Russia to commit war crimes on their territory, and their democratically elected leader asked for help. Security guarantees signed in 1994 gave the USA and UK an obligation to help (even had we not wanted to). So here we are. We owe Ukraine.

As for Ferrexpo there are two hugely relevant facts.

First is Russia has been unable to take and hold any substantial part of Ukrainian territory. What we thought was the second best army in the world is failing against a nation that is, well not exactly known for having top notch armed forces. The fact Russia can’t establish air supremacy is a sign they are simply not capable. Ferrexpo’s mine is a long way from the fighting and likely to remain so.

Second is that any deal will cement the status quo. Trump’s rhetoric is less relevant than the fact he is surrounding himself with Ukraine supporters at the top end of his administration. The deal will be to stop the fighting around current borders. The threats will be to Ukraine, we will cut off your weapons, and to Russia, we will carpet bomb Moscow and there is nothing you can do to stop us.

That is it. The investment case is clear as the base case is now a cessation of fighting and ceasefire around current borders. What is left of Ukraine gets back on its feet, with western help. Obviously other outcomes are possible, although now incredibly unlikely IMO.

I have been following Challenger/Bahamas for nearly 15 years and have invested on and off. Made a lot of money in 2010, and then lost a lot on the Perseverance drill. After that, I sold out and assumed this company would die off. But I think right now, with Uruguay potential, this does seem very undervalued. Their cash is real, Chevron’s work programme will happen (why wouldn’t it) and Challenger still have substantial exposure plus another block to farm out. I don’t see why this couldn’t be worth £100m in the next year, before another drill. With some hype and froth, who knows, perhaps even more. :-)

Management would need to agree to a takeover. They have enhanced voting rights shares, precisely to keep control of this issue.

Who knows oj but I am amazed at the number of people I know who use SJP and love them. “But they are very expensive and their performance is so-so” leaves them very unmoved.

My feeling is the regulator, after decades of destroying financial services companies with retrospective legislation, has finally pitched this one right. SJP can simply replace exit fees with initial charges.

Really don’t see a flood here. SJP clients are not listening to ads for ambulance chasers IMO.

“I also suspect the shenanigans on the LSE (due to useless FCA) would not be tolerated on the NYSE,“

Things are, arguably, worse in New York.

I can think of two stocks that have suffered short attacks of this nature very recently. One has shrugged it off and another has not. (Gigacloud Technology and Hut 8 if you are interested in verifying).

The fact is sometimes shorters get it right and sometimes they don’t. DEC is difficult to analyse so any discussion is helpful IMO even if conclusions might turn out to be wrong and upset the share price in the short term.

The history is clear that the only Middle Eastern country to have given the remotest sh*t about the people in Gaza is Israel. But if they are going to behead babies, I expect that to change.