Peel Hunt valuation18 Feb 2014 23:44
Last week, we visited an area within GDG’s licences that has been subject to third- party development and production of gas by several of China’s state owned enterprises (SOEs), including CNOOC, CNPC, PetroChina and CUCBM. The extent of this work is considerable.
Our trip enabled us to visit multiple producing well sites that supply the integrated production facility (IPF) in the core area at GSS that has been developed by GDG. In addition, and arguably more importantly, we also had the opportunity to visit a separate area in the south of GSS, which has been one of the areas of focus for the SOE activity and where several hundred wells and associated infrastructure have been installed.
Although we were unable physically to visit every third-party well site (there are c1,500), from what we saw we believe it is likely that the data received so far by GDG concerning the activity carried out by the SOEs will result in material new production, revenue and reserves net to GDG. The exact quantum, and how GDG will benefit from the economic uplift, are yet to be established; however, given the support from the PRC for the validity of GDG’s PSCs, we find it difficult to see how the outcome for GDG will be anything other than positive.
Valuation and recommendation: Although guidance on net reserves and incremental production data covering some of the reviewed wells has been provided, we do not yet have sufficient data on the third-party activity or on how the benefits of this work will flow back to GDG in order to factor it into a revised valuation. However, what we can say with conviction is that we believe in the coming months Green Dragon will be a net beneficiary of the work undertaken by the SOEs, with a strong chance that it will be materially NAV- and financially accretive for the business. We reiterate our Buy.