RE: EME19 Jul 2025 09:11
Unless I've misinterpreted, the pipeline has yet to be laid. So gas sales won't happen in the short term. Maybe even the medium term.
I would therefore expect a re-rate to 0.6-0.7p over the course of weeks but then the SP will hover there for months until the pipeline is ready. Probably do a current WSBN style fluctuation close to the date gas delivery will start in a will they/won't they impatient rise and fall pattern.
If EME don't sell, once the gas starts pumping, I'd expect a reasonable jump, then a slow, steady climbing SP over time. I'm reluctant to throw out any numbers for this, as I simply don't know at what rate or to what ceiling this could reach.
If EME do sell their full share, we will still get a re-rate but then who knows?
What I'm leaning towards is EME will sell a portion of their 8.5%, maybe like 3.5% or something in which case, again, the SP will climb but will have a lower ceiling, but EME have released funds for other projects while a steady income is still guaranteed over the next decade.