Member Info for thelearner

I have had many of these dinners you talk about - but no longer - moved to the office - Christmas dinners at home now. Bit larger scale than gold exploration drilling and costs an awful lot more.

Costa - I think that's a very good question - but I do not have an answer. The JV was minimum spend of $65m US + I think first $20m of PFS costs - would need to go back and look at the detail.
So I guess the easiest way to estimate would be with drilling costs - then there are some capital costs for the camp and small roadways - not any decline works, and the costs of upgrade works at Telfer would be not included.

Figure would be interesting to see how much they have spent to get 70% ownership. However FMV has to take into account the value of the gold in the ground, which is quite complex.
Lots of things would come into the calc, including required CAPEX to get the minerals to Telfer, although we have a small proven resource, we have quite small CAPEX to get this out. Once the Bulk Underground mining starts - there will be more CAPEX, but regardless - because Telfer is already there, and we will be paying a toll feed for processing our 25%, CAPEX and AISC will be low - so FMV should be reasonable.

I would also like to have some part of deal to protect for future growth of the resource size - but I think this will be determined by the legal text in the JV agreement - and none of us knows what this say.
It could (and this is only speculation) have a clause saying that FMV will be calculated based on resource size at time of the purchase.
Who knows. Only time will tell. Hope GGP had good people when reviewing or writing that part of the JV agreement.

Tom, Cj - can only echo what others have said - best wishes for the tests and hope you have a good outcome. Same for anyone else with health worries - haelth is always more important than wealth

readthecandles - on Oct 7th the SP was 21.7p - on high volume - then on steady decline, but so have many other junior explorers and small producers in the PM sector. That's a big drop and I just cannot fathom it out.
The other thing I cannot fathom out - the % of PI's holding seems to be sticking around 80% - although I am totally reliant on people like Hydro providing this info - some people have access to Bloomberg Terminal.

I do think a lot of PI's on Aim invest for a quick gain - if it does not arrive cut their losses and go elsewhere.

The world is potentially a bad place again, with Omicron (I hope it's not so bad as feared) - and there will be many wondering if world economies can take another shock. I don't think in our country people will accept full lockdown again unless deaths rise hugely and NHS comes under severe pressure. Who knows - one day things will turn. Pandemics normally turn endemic - I wish this one would hurry up and do this.

In my opinion, the real value will come when we have become a producer and have years of production in the ground at Haverion.

If we sold our 30 or 25%, we would be selling without knowing the full size of hav, will take years to drill this. Then we would site with money in bank, and even if we hit big - will take a long time if we have to build a mine.
I think if we get lucky at Scally - will most probably be a JV - but at much better terms - using Telfer as the mine for processing - and much quicker production.

I cannot understand the dropping SP - I'd said I had stopped buying but moving some funds now - never thought we'd be below the placing price, and now we are. I will keep holding. However this sector is continuing to take a pasting.

Hydrogen the shorter - he is posting extremely positive things about potential - some may even call it ramping - encouraging others to buy the shares he is shorting? Anyway many know his background. Geologist working for NC - not credible IMHO.

Dip

Systematic process, area is under cover, don’t believe in expensive pattern drilling. Believe in drilling a hole, understanding that, reflecting on it, recalibrating understanding of the region and then going back in.

That gives me really good reassurance - drilling deep is expensive - and that makes much more sense - might take longer - might be quicker if you put next drill in a better place, but deep exploration is hard - and costly.

The deep holes in the North or North West - always intrigue me.
Drillers first to see cores - experienced drillers probably can tell when core is promising.
Site Geologists next to see cores - might be first to see the split cores - will have a good idea of what's there
NC TrueScan techs next to see the cores - and NC will have lots of great data before sending the interesting cores to the labs for assays (I don't believe they send core sections that don't look so good)

Every company tries not to have leaks when the drill is taking cores out of ground - but there are always some with a very good idea of what is happening

Just wish I knew some of them. On Hav blocks - GGP guys on JV management ctte should know same as NCM. Therefore so does SD - although he will be limited in what he can say.

Spades, I read this board regularly. I have seen nothing about a move to vote out AB, or reasons to do or I may have voted.
I have never voted through HL unless mandatory, but do know how to, and would if required.
Not lazy, but unless very well organised pi’s normally cannot influence.

I would be happy if that happened to my Canadian junior play, Northern Superior. Been there a while, but would like a big gain to invest elsewhere.

Filling my post of 21.03 last night.
I said I would be surprised if NC would take part in any underhand attempted takeover of GGP, but a hedge fund would do exactly the opposite.
If there was a low ball takeover bid being orchestrated, it would be undesirable for both GGP and NC. In this scenario, I could then see NC starting negotiations with GGP for a non hostile takeover, or assisting GGP fend off an unwanted hostile takeover.

Anyway I hope non of those scenarios ever come to pass, and I would be instructions HL to vote against with all our shares.

Bamps, totally agree with your post about the board.
My rules are read and reply in a manner I would like to be replied to, never get abusive to others in a personal manner, and ignore any baiting and do not respond.
I am a big supporter of Hydrogen and the research he shares. He has admitted some of his postings yesterday maybe not the best, but hard when you are being attacked not to respond.

NC already own 70% - deserved in my opinion - and even at $400m dollars - a bargain price. If they had not found GGP and Hav - they would have spent a fortune decommissioning the Telfer mine.
Now they are looking potentially at a further 30 years of profit from Hav/Telfer before they cross this bridge again. No wonder Sandeep smiles every time he mentions it.
NC now been drilling with 8 rigs for 2 years - still open in multiple directions - and new targets within Hav blocks - Hav has the potential to truly be a block caving monster. But it's going to take a bit of time to find out resource size - could take years.
So would NCM like the other 30% - of course they would. They would want to get it at the best price - but I doubt they would be part of any underhand activities - nowadays a company's reputation has huge value.
Would they try and take out a junior explorer - and partner in other JV's with a very lowball unfair offer - I'd be surprised.
Would a hedge fund try and take out GGP with a lowball underhand offer - yes they would - but they cannot succeed if a large majority of the shareholders refuse to sell.
The real unknown is at the moment if we are going to find any more hav, 0.5 Hav or even 0.25 hav in the Paterson, and if we will find something good on 100% ground. Any takeover bid will get harder as more gold /cu and other PM's in the ground is proven.

Like many I wish I'd sold some at high price - I've not sold and have kept adding. Like many I'll be gutted if we get taken out with lowball offer - but I think this is extremely unlikely.
Paddy has shared everything - including his strategy - but everyone decides their own strategy.

Anyone at the AGM - please put some good questions to SD. GLA.

I just wonder if it's about risk of being invested in Nicaragua. I have not invested in any producers - unfortunately. All my junior explorers have suffered badly over the last year, including CNR.
I did wonder about reducing here to invest in less risky jurisdictions (Australia/Canada) - there are some atrractive plays in Africa but that also carries higher level of risk.

I hope it's news of a toll deal that has leaked - if finance is a problem, not sure Jim Mellon would want to be heavily invested and Financing the mine - if finance is risky normally comes at higher cost - so toll deal would give us early income.

Looking at calibre - couple of presentations - exploration growth in Nicaragua looks good - am sure Condor will also grow their reserves once the mine is built and they have income.

I think until we see assays from Ascot, it's too early to be speaking about fundraise or future drilling campaigns. I also think we need to put some holes into the other targets and see the assays from these.
If these assays show promise, then I'd be all for another fundraise and drilling to increase value of the asset before XTR sell it. However - this all makes the timescale to sale much longer - so depends on what CB and the BOD want.

Tig/Bamps/Brleigh/Bancal et all - some wonderful posts this morning.
I was in SXX for a very short while and made a small profit before getting out - it was a huge project, a very good project, but huge sums of cash required over a very long time. If AA take it over - I will be sorry for all those who lost, but it will bring jobs and revenue to an area that needs it.

I was worried my portfolio was too focussed on PM's - and this sector has taken a battering lately - but your posts have restored my belief that with patience - most of my investments will come good. I do take up to £5K punts on more risky small explorers - in the full knowledge these are very risky.

Bamps - not been here too much in last couple of weeks - reading when I can - busy - but thanks for sharing all your research, and completely agree it's going to get bigger - the Hav ore body - and hopefully we are going to find some more in the Hav blocks - next set of results might be even more revealing.

Our other blocks - I think we'll have to have more patience - hopefully we strike early - but it is very exploring and exploring deep.

SP - like many disappointed we are still trading below the placing price, I've not bought any more shares - the whole junior mining sector has been performing very poorly, while I speak to friends who have DC managed pension funds where the managers seem to have had great success over the last year in other sectors.

So just sitting waiting for sentiment to return to this sector. Going to be very interested to watch other juniors and how SP performs when they have a strike.

You know I am in XTR who have just declared a second porphyry - Ascot next to Racecourse, no assays yet though, good increase in SP but now drifting down again. Have not bought but watching Kav with interest.

Schlemiel - welcome back - I invested in XTR and was very happy when I also saw you and there are a couple of other known posters invested across there. Good to see you back in here.

GLA - hopefully sentiment will return to the PM's market.

NCM are managing Hav. They are a world class underground mining company. They have done a PFS for phase 1 of the development of Hav - with detailed timelines of how the first ore will be mined and delivered to Telfer. They have committed to invested hundreds of millions of dollars to do this. There will be no long lead time items that will delay PH1 mining IMHO.

The bulk mining operation will take much more years to build. Yes there is no formal decision to mine yet - this will come at FS next year. They are going flat out to have ore at Telfer ASAP to save having to mothball it or operate Telfer at a loss.

That's my opinion anyway - if I had any doubts I'd have sold - but I have continued buying - granted - wished I had waited - all my 2021 purchases now showing a loss. But saved by my earlier ones.
I am happy to give SD and his team the benefit of the doubt for the late and unexpected to most placing. Lets see what he says next week.

Canary 3 - it's very hard to find an accurate figure I have seen an estimate for diamond core drilling of $200 - $250 per metre - but as you go deeper it takes longer and costs go up. Best way to calculate would be to see how much funds are used for a drilling programme from cpy accounts and compare it to metres drilled - but the accounts for NCM probably do not have that amount of detail.

Our financial report from June 2021 does not have that detail that I can find. But in the year to June 2021 our salary bill was £1.4m - I think that will now have increased - as SD has a couple of new people onboard. Until we have income stream, this also needs to come from existing funds, fund raises - be very hard to borrow to keep the lights on, although project costs including wages can be funded by borrowing.

I would have liked to buy more early this morning near the placing price - but to do so I would have needed to sell either some AIM shares or some funds - funds take longer to get the money to buy - so I missed out - decided not to sell any other shares I have.

I see a lot of people being very critical of SD - for me he has the benefit of the doubt, I am sure we will soon know the reason for the placing. I don't believe it was to give directors a discounted way in.
I'd have no problem with the directors being able to earn shares as a bonus as long as it was linked to company performance, and the only real measure just now is Mcap.

I'd never heard of this system with Primary Bid until yesterday.

June 2021 financial report page 40. Current cash, £6.2 million. Current liabilities £3.5m, non current liabilities £16.3m.
So cash position £2.7m - and this would be for 100% owned assets drilling?
If someone could clarify - non current liabilities would be the amount of the loan from NCM we have used so far?

I have no idea what is going on. Giving II's a foothold in company on the cheap - not a big enough placing. SD - maybe he still has inside knowledge and cannot buy shares on open market, but when placings are being done directors would be allowed to participate at same terms as others?

My guess is this is for increased unplanned drilling at Havieron in the main. I'd love it if we had found something on a 100% owned play that needed a lot of extra drilling. Not Juri anyway as first $20m AU is covered by NCM.

Other shares where I have seen placings - the SP has dropped to placing price. Some recover and some stay there.
There is a difference in my eyes with a pacing that is for exploration drilling - or to keep the cpy lights on by paying salaries when no assets are involved and there is no added value.
When there is a placing / fund raise - to buy equipment or to drill to prove up more resource which will increase asset value - I see these as generally positive.

At least in this case the placing shares do not come with warrants giving rights to buy at fixed price in the future - as a PI that's the type I get most upset with being excluded from.

The morning will be interesting - many people unhappy - will they rush to sell their shares - I'd think not. At least this was done before AGM when q's can be asked.

Interesting day tomorrow - but I am here for the long term.