Member Info for thelearner

Bamps - as usual excellent post.
I posted last night - Australian coal exports produced 2 x CO2 emissions of all the combined Co2 emississions from the whole country of Australia.
However I don't think the emissions are their problem - it's the end users of the coal - what is Australia's problem is how to replace jobs and income to the economy when undoubtedly the mining and use of coal stops - which will be way before O&G ceases production.

I'd imagine if you looked at oil and gas and did the same comparison with Saudi it would be multiples of double that countries emissions.
But going green is expensive - and many will not be able to find the money required - big mining companies will invest in solar/wind as in the long run it will save them a fortune - and help their reputation - which is incredibly important now.

https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/australia/
This is the climate action tracker for Australia - and does not make good reading - compare with UK https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/uk/ which probably has one of the better records.
Every country will be challenged with finance - how to pay for all the change.
Australia still mining and using coal - in 2021 exported coal from Australia gave twice as many emissions as the whole of Australia the country produced.

Coal I think will be target #1. Australia has been expanding use of natural gas and I believe this will continue as an interim measure like it will in many countries.

Mining is a very large employer in Australia and is the biggest sector accounting for around 10% of GDP. They are going to have to scale back coal, and will be more than happy to replace it with mining for metals needed to meet 2050 net zero targets IMHO.
When you look at NCM and GGP - they know they are going to have to generate power from solar and wind.
Australia has huge solar potential.

Interesting discussion though.

Trying to be optimistic - Q3 is only 6 weeks away - but being pessimistic FS could be 4 months away

Again thanks for an excellent blog, also bought some more today - did not get in below 5 but happy - could not resist

I know - I've been trying to buy sub 13 for a couple of weeks - spread has been wide - gave up and bought 37576e today at 13.1175. Happy with that - and pretty sure I am going to be taking more, if they drop it sub 13 I'm taking some more.

Bamps - you are on fire this morning!
I think Hav alone makes GGP and attractive T/O target - maybe not quite yet but in time - if we have a "hit" on some of the other properties (less as Juri JV as NCM have already done the deal there) - this might accelerate a T/O offer.

For me I think it's worth holding - at Hav alone I think we will not know the full size of the ore body for many years, but NCM will need to know before they design the underground mine, but even the underground mine can be developed in stages, but they will want to know highest average grade areas to go for these first. So once they can drill from underground and easily go deeper, some well spread exploration drills then infill drilling in the most promising areas.

For NCM - they are maybe looking 10 years ahead for the balance sheet - so if it's 15 moz or 50 moz, most of those oz's will take take decades to come out - great to know you have lot's of oz' in the ground, but the shorter term 5 - 10 years production profiles makes the most difference to the balance sheet.

I do hope there is much more found in the Paterson - preferably by us. Telfer/Winu may not be the only mines that will be in the Paterson.

I honestly don't know when I'll sell - but not until I think I am getting something approaching fair value - and I don't think that will be 50p - but that depends on success with the drill. Many thought would be tempted by 50p if the offer arrived quickly, if it was further down the road, don't think it would be so attractive. Don't think many would take 30-35p. Many in AIM are looking for quick profits and not long term holds.

I have kept accumulating, and yes bought quite a lot in 30's and 20's - but my average is still around 7.5 but going up as still accumulating.

GLA.

I've had a fill order sitting at various prices was 12.9 yesterday and today - only for 40k shares - but not filled - and price has dipped below this a few times.

but the remaining 25% GGP and their shareholders will have a lot more choice on what price to accept. for the remaining 25% of Hav is how that should have ended.

Good posts. If NCM decide to "remove GGP" from Hav - they will have to be willing to pay the price. SD only option for the 5% is what the independent arbitrer decides, but the remaining 25% GGP and their shareholders will have a lot more choice on what price to accept.

GGP are also in another JV - Juri - but I also agree NCM are very much in the driving seat on that JV. From memory there are timescales to be met - not had any updates but think we are now on stage 1 - $3m Aus spend and NCM own 51%. Then another $17M Aus within 3 years of stage 1 and NCM up to 75% ownership.
So not much there to worry about for NCM.

We have other attractive acreage in Scally - so NCM may want to keep a good relationship for this - but we need to find some interesting results from the drill. Scallywag 2022 plans "2022 exploration drill programme designed to test ground EM conductors at Pearl, Swan and Swan East" and SD has already made it clear slow and steady is the plan - so we may just have to be very patient.

Hav buyout - I am sure SD and the team will already have a realistic valuation figure in mind - I really don't think they want to sell - and although many shareholders would sell if the offer was right - not sure NCM or their shareholders want to go that high. Problem is we will never know the true size of Hav until we start drilling from underground at depth - and Hav still open in many directions including at depth.
I am continuing to add at these prices.

still 2.66 million and increasing - from April 19 till now - been adding all the way up from 1.65 to 33 and down. Not sold 1 - wish I had in 30's but that would have been to buy back more at lower cost - no time for trading though.

I would not think the 5% sale would be classed as revenue - (partial) asset sale I'd say.

I am not like SaS with £80K sitting on a fill order - but for the last 4 days I have been sitting with a £10K fill order - was 13.00 but now at 13.25 - I don't have time to sit and watch for the shomb being launched.
This was some money for energy efficiency improvements - but it would be as well in here for the 6 months until I need it.
I also think the SP is now bottomed - but I have never been a very good judge of this.

CARE - in 2018 4 tenemets were sold to GSN for $50000Au and 1 million shares in GSN.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/strategic-minerals/rns/care-gold-tenements-sale-update/201809130700026099A/
In 2017 SML bought out Rarus Shares - we were I think in JV with them - price was just over £500K but think it was supplied in SML shares - don't know if Rarus sold them when the going was good. Guess who was also on Rarus board - 1 Alan Broome. Previously we bought 50% of Care for £190000.
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/full?dockey=1323-13215271-33R5V9KM10V8HQOMBTINTI59C8

It is very hard to find the tenement numbers - but this was first drilling results update
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ol1qO7-eWaejVs1Trzp-4Mrrr_ch6Ff3/view
In 2020 SML released the care tenements back to WA government. Without tenement numbers hard to see if they have been taken up by another company.

CARE was another shambles from this BOD.

SaS - last 2 days I have had a fill order at 13 - also not filled. So you are not alone.

Hydrogen - 5% theory interesting - hedge or gamble - a hedge is supposed to be an investment to reduce risk - a bit like an insurance policy.
I too have funds coming for this years ISA top Up.
I imagine you are thinking that if the 5% deal is poor - many people will hit the sell button lowering the price - and your aim is to be ready to buy to reduce the chances of the shorting gang being able to exit their position without real pain - the more buyers for sellers - the share price will hold. If the sellers do not hit sell button, or the 5% deal is good or fair, then you are willing to pay a higher price.

Not sure I will take this position. If people buy now, at a pretty low price, and I don' know if it's the floor, more shares will be in sticky hands and unlikley to be sold when the 5% deal concludes. Who knows how long this will take. I guess the other position might be the 5% goes to arbitration - this might also lead people to hit the sell button and drop price.

Now where did I put that crystal ball?

For me - depends how you define stellar results. A nice strike with great grades like HAD05 - SD would rather have this now or ASAP. For a single strike result to become "stellar" will take a lot of further drilling, which takes time.

Looking for an ore body less that 1 km square and maybe 400 - 2000m below the earth is not an easy task in an area as huge as Paterson. We are incredibly lucky to have found Hav - even with good geological knowledge and modern tools paving the way of where to put the drill. Lets hope that mixture of skill and luck come together again in 2023 for GGP.

Would a new good strike on 100% ground would make a buy out more likely - Hav is already attractive enough. I think it would drive up the required buy out price, but may generate interest from others than NCM. But it's all conjecture until we find something.

Tomorrow will be interesting - new tax year and some topping up ISA's - I have sold some shares outside ISA and awaiting funds to arrive. They will go to ISA and I keep getting drawn back to buying more GGP at these prices.
I do look at Hydro's posts and strategy - and wonder if he thinks the 5% buyout when complete is going to cause some holders to sell. I am not sure about this. Tomorrow and rest of week volumes will be interesting.

Strudel - good luck with the meet - work commitments stop me attending and Stirling is a good 3 hrs from me - but one day hopefully.

Just bought 48413 - very easily - so there are shares there to buy

notrader - yes fair point - additional farm in period probably/possibly means farm in period runs to the end of the "additional" farm in period.
There was no payments to GGP from NCM during each stage of the farm in period - just spending and some other commitments - all these have been met now and we are in the additional farm in period.

But for tenement E45/4701, during the Farm-In Period and for the term of the Joint Venture Agreement; So the JV agreement is still running - I think this is the Hav tenement blocks - so NCM have first refusal on this if another offer comes in - I think.