Member Info for TheITCrowd

NM

This could really fly tomorrow if the MM's play ball.

7p just paid and now nothing available online again. Guess it's back to FOK.

No it isn't listed.

Still cheap at 7p :)

One thing which has been playing on my mind is the overall valuation of a entity like Minto.
My numbers and valuation so far have concentrated on the company value from turnover and profits given a projected Copper price. What I haven't included is the opportunity value of all the Copper, Gold and Silver contained in permitted area.
Take an explorer for example like XTR. They are valued at £45m having sunk a couple of holes which returned fairy low grades but good length and depth. I appreciate they have other interests as well but most of the added value XTR have seen on the last couple of months has come from this drilling. Price before 1.5p now 6p adding some £35m to their valuation.
We have an operational mine which has seen millions of pound invested in it's construction, we also have huge in ground reserves which which soon be upgraded in light of the recent drilling results. If the extra value that XTR have seen has come from their drilling then what is that value of our, already proven, reserves? Surely more than is being priced in by the market.

L2analyst thanks. I am not sure of the % held by directors but it quite large compared to many miners out there. Your 24% could be correct.
There is considerable leverage to the copper price here which if forecasts come true, they are already heading north, they will have a massive impact here.
IMO now is the time to buy as the market isn't taking any note of this. Should copper continue moving north then they will and it will be too late as, due to the small free float, it will take off rapidly.
Good luck.

The price of Copper has just passed $4.20 which is pretty much double where is was at its low last March/April.
That will do nicely!!

a bean today. Having said that I did manage to to do a FOK for 25K which I put on at 8.30am. It took nearly 2 hours to be filled!

Battleja

You are correct on both counts.
Also the CEO'S loan was originally convertible into shares but was amended to remove this feature. It is now a straight forward loan. The interest rate was increased slightly to compensate for the conversion being removed. A good move as it reduces dilution.

Battleja

The drop in equity from 33 to 11% was tied up with the relinquishing of a load of liability that PERE had over the Minto mine. So although their equity interest was reduced their debt position and liabilities improved considerably. Given the way the copper price is going they may have been better keeping the debt and larger equity holding, but hiensite is a great thing. They still have 11% of what looks to be becoming a very profitable investment and Minto are still liable to pay back the loan PERE made to them.

Now before anyone challenges my numbers I know they are a bit rough and ready. However they clearly show the potential massive turnaround here which the market has not picked up on. They assume that income from gold and silver remains at last years levels.
The interim results for Jan -June 2020, were released Last September.
They show a $9m loss on a turnover of $25.5m. We also know from these results that the copper price achieved was $2.32.
I would imagine that the price realised for copper in the second half was 50% higher at about $3.4. Assuming our cost base remains pretty constant, based on the same production quantities, then this 50% price rise should have increased our income by $12.5m. This would give a $3.5m profit for the second half and a $6m loss for the year.
If we then assume a copper price of $4.5 for 2021, very doable in my opinion, we would achieve turnover of $100m and a profit of $32m. Our 11% interest would give us $3.5m share of this . Our current market cap is only $6.5m!
This does not allow for any production increase which we know is the strategy here, nor does it allow for anymore banked reserves from the recent drilling. I think using a copper price of $4.50 is quite conservative given some of the recent forecasts. If it averaged $5.5 then the numbers are $125m turnover and $57m profit!
Yes there are risks as with all mining stocks but with copper in vogue right now and forecast to be for some years to come, this has could see one mighty turnaround very soon.
Not that many shares in issue or free float here which could also benefit any rise.
Just my 2 pennith worth.

battleja you could be right. I will do some numbers over the weekend based on Citigroups new copper price forecast.
I think they will be staggering!

Copper now well through $4 at $4.03 just now. This has huge positive implications for PERE.
I think the MM's know this, they won't let me buy a single share!
Even a FOK for 10,000 didn't get filled.

people are selling down here when copper is having such a good run and is predicted to continue.
I guess people have their reasons.

Copper about to go through $4. Pere's interim results stated that they received $2.25 for their first half production for turnover of $26m. With prices now nearly double that and possible production increases profits should be going through the roof. And yet we are still sitting at a very low price. All aboard.

Copper just gone through €3.90 lb. Minto must be raking it in at these prices.

I noticed Ascendant was up strongly yesterday. Perhaps the next batch of drilling results are due?

Castiron, if it is then the market has absorbed it really well.

That is one hell of a trade 10,750,000!!