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Not sure and we are an easy one to manipulate anyway, but since we had overshot the EMA 50, it looks like we just retraced to that level now.

DK, I don't recall you making the same remarks, for balance, on the 8th June or the 13th June (when the market moved upwards with similar force). The share price is just moving up and down within a longer wave and this is just short-term volatility.

Chill, we are due important updates and these movements are nothing.

DK, raw materials were under pressure due to China's growth possibly cooling off. You should keep an eye on iron ore, which is a good indicator, besides looking at the majors. Yesterday GLEN, BHP, RIO, AAL, etc etc, were all down. Volume in SOLG has been low in the last week, it would have not taken much to move the price.

Obviously not nice, also considering that technically now the SAR has turned negative again.

I don't want to sound negative, but a new website probably means just a new design and navigation. Now a new design may be more conducive to conveying information better, but if the point of the new website is that there is new relevant information for investors, all they need is an RNS, not a new website.

S-A, I am definitely with you on that.

If the price is reflecting a new bullish view on SOLG, I think we need to reach 21.50 / 22.00 to confirm a sustained uptrend. So with the investor meet event and more buying going on, next week might turn out to be an interesting time and I am looking forward to that.

Signed up and submitted 3 straight questions about how active is the Data room, target valuation and their expectations about shareholders in the very diverse book.

Scott seems a bit less cryptic than his predecessors, but perhaps it's just his enthusiasm and a sense that he does not need to stay in the weeds for too long, so it might fade if a sale does not happen soon.

GLA

Further to my earlier rants about waves and time forecasts, it is usually postulated that the amplitude of waves is proportional to their length, therefore, based on my previous forecast of upcoming price spike in October 2023 and April 2024, the projected prices at those times based on previous waves amplitudes, would be 25.5ish for October 2023 and 30.2ish for April 2024.

Quite depressing really, LTHs would hope to be at a higher price at those times.

There you go, you read it here first!

Parabolic SAR positive, supertrend still negative but getting closer to reversing, RSI kind of neutral but definitely more upside than downside, ROC(40) in negative territory but trending upwards.

I would say that the market is not going to go lower, and if I was not horribly long already I would top up in size.

Jut my thoughts, DYOR.

@Bozi, waves are a very well known but yet vastly misunderstood and largely underestimated topic. Understanding the Y axis is only half of the trading challenge, the x axis being equally difficult to manage. Do some reading, it's fascinating stuff, and it applies to all kinds of natural, social and economic phenomena.

I would rather find comfort in number crunching than BB gibberishing.....

So, running close prices starting from 10 Feb 2006 (earliest data from Yahoo Finance), using the Excel Data Analysis pack, I ran the Histogram function.

The data returns relevant waves of 37.88 days. 26.14 days, 20.66 days, 8.14 days, 4.23 days.

This corresponds, in calendar days, to 53.03, 36.6, 28.92, 11.4, 5.92.

If I take the longest wave (53.03 calendar days) and I plot multiple intervals of 53.03 days, like 53.03*2 or *3 or *n, I get a number of theoretical harmonics that should correspond to actual recorded price movements, within an acceptable interval.

As it turns out, I could get 24 such peaks matching the theoretical dates, within around 1% tolerance.

The four major peaks we have seen in the last meaningful years (April 2017, October 2018, October 2020, April 2022), all fall in the pattern, and the long term implication is that the peaks are distanced at either 1.50/1.54 or 1.99 years from one another.

Soooo, if there is a rhythm hidden in the SOLG price oscillations, there are two upcoming dates that might result in a relevant peak, either 1.50/1.54 or 1.99 years from the last one.

That would be 12/10/2023 (=1.50) to 26/10/2023 (1.54), or 7/4/2024 (=1.99).

If I had to fantasize in Elliott terms, I would go as far as guessing that October 2023 might be a W3 peak, and April 2024 a W5 peak. Who knows though, just trying to rationalize this madness......

GLA

@Sid, yes I would imagine that the algo will factor in exactly this type of input.

Which news Sid?

The day will be blue, but this is all marginal +/- movement.

It will get exciting, and it WILL get exciting when the price starts to move like in Sep/Oct 2016, Jan 2017, Sep 2018, Sep 2020, Apr 2021, Mar 2022.

And by the way, if you notice, these price moves (peaks) have an interestingly recurring seasonal character and rhythm (0.5/0.6 years, 1.42 years, 2 years). I for one am very curious to see what happens end of Q3/beginning of Q4.

RSI super low but not trending up yet.

Supertrend and Parabolic SAR solidly pointing south.

20dEMA just above 50d EMA, might indicate that the drop might be coming to an end and there is more upside at these levels.

Volume low so no buying pressure, new buyers on their own really.

Technicals overall just reflecting the negative fundamentals around OMI's event, no technical movements per se in the price.

I would say min buy level 1.5p, could start buying around 3p if impatient and averaging down if it keeps dropping.

All personal opinion, DYOR and GLA.

Forte, I guess we shall see, but unless there is any buying pressure, I dont see how BR stopping selling will move the price back up. If they thought the price would go back up they just would not sell.

@Sid200 (what happened to the fist 199 by the way?)

BR uses a lot of data, also a lot of "alternative" data to feed their pricing algos, to determine at any given time if one stock is a buy, a hold or a sell. As stocks are picked for any one or more of their thematic funds, it might be that the algo prices in he Ecuador country risk and on that basis alone determines to sell, or less dramatically it blends different contributing factors to come up with a decision based on their risk appetite at any given point.

From internal sources I know for sure that traders are just executing deals, all decisions are algo-based. Of course we will not know the exact background of their decision to offload SOLG shares, but it's just a mechanical exercise ands it might well be that when the risk profile changes they will load up again. They do this for thousands of positions every hour of every day. That's it really.

And how did you come to this conclusion?

There are different ways to make the price move upwards again, some based on fundamentals, some based on sentiment and expectation. Either way, the price is the price and that is the only thing that will eventually trigger a decision to buy, sell, hold or do nothing.

Now, on the fundamental level, I think it's not correct to state that there is a lack of meaningful action, the company has stated that it is reorganizing itself around more focussed priorities, advancing Cascabel (see SC's comments about negotiating with government for example and exploring various financing options) and with more disciplined cost management. This takes some time and it's made of many day to day activities that don't justify an RNS. OF course we could be sold just BS on these fronts and the reality might be that they are only cutting cost to survive longer while they look to negotiate a sale who knows really...

On the sentiment level, it's low and will likely stay low unless something fundamentally changes, we had too many false dawns and there is justifiable cynicism.

On the expectation level, that's where we tend to disagree. Each of us projects a view of the future based on one interpretation or another, and possibly on our individual aspirations.

All in all, too little known in reality and too much time to think about it all. Not a nice time, made worse by some posters.

GLA

Many juniors dream of attracting partners such as BHP and Newcrest Mining. Mather brought them in and then eventually alienated them. He also alienated Cornerstone Capital Partners, a junior explorer which owned 15% of Cascabel until the two companies finally merged earlier this year, but not before Mather had twice failed in hostile takeover attempts and alienated its board and management.

Following the merger, Cornerstone changed SolGold’s board and picked Caldwell to run the company. Maxit Capital was the largest shareholder of Cornerstone, and its chief executive Bon Singha, was not shy of expressing what he thought of BHP and Newcrest in their approach to working with SolGold, as Mining Journal reported in late 2022 with the help of a few asterisks.

Caldwell has some bridges to build. Part of my role is to work with all our stakeholders, including shareholders, and we are trying to get a good working relationship. The relationship with BHP and Newcrest has not been the best at times. Both BHP and Newcrest voted against me on the board, which tells you what they thought about me joining, said Caldwell.

One relationship that is likely to change anyway is that of Newcrest following its acquisition by Newmont. However, as Mining Journal reported recently, Newmont’s chief executive likes Ecuador and the company’s investment in Lundin Gold but did not mention its investment in SolGold. Newmont would look to realise some $2 billion in portfolio adjustments following the acquisition, leaving some to speculate that SolGold may be a position it would seek to monetise.

I have not spoken to Newmont. I want the dust to settle on the transaction with Newcrest, and we will reach out to them when the timing is appropriate. I certainly would encourage anyone to at least look at the asset before they sell the stock, just because of its size and the magnitude, said Caldwell.

Shares in SolGold are trading at 29c, valuing the company at C$873 million.