Member Info for theiceberg

re 88E. I have made considerable money on that in the last two weeks. I've taken profit and got some free ride in case they hit big. But the chances are pretty small. Both are good companies IMO, and both work towards each others understanding of the north slope.

Re probability, its the cornerstone of oil drills and 95% of investors don't have a clue how it works, some CEO's don't either.
COS is not really a chance of success, its a geological risk calculation, made up from a set of probabilities.
equally multiple horizons are a set of different probabilities as well.
I wrote a piece of COS and probability about 5 years ago and how misunderstood it is (look up monty hall and probability) re multiple sets.

A piece of work was done by a statistician about 10 years ago looking at COS and actual success. It came out that a 70% COS equally had a 90% success rate. 38% had a 50% success rate, but 20% COS had a less than 10% success rate.

The other factor re COS is that it determines every event as individual and unconnected, particularly multi horizon targets. However this often isn't the case.

It does not cover whether oil, concentrate, gas, water is found and certainly not whether finds are commercial.

This is just imo but there is probably a 90% chance of something flowing.
However that probably falls to 70% being oil - then maybe falling to 50% as commercial oil.
TBH i like those odds. :)

Re flow - again just imo, but less than 50 BOPD would be interesting but not exciting
50-150 BOPD would be a good solid result, considering this isn't a production drill re size of equip.
over 200 bopd would be very good indeed.

TBH. I don't know either of you, I can't speak for anyone else, but i don't believe or trust anything that anybody says on an oil share, as 90% of it is BS. That being said. I take folks how i see them, so won't filter anyone unless I want to - which is very rare.

It took 4-5 days to flow test a layer successfully in alkaid.
We are due to start the 3rd day today.

The biggest caveat seems to be how much oil and how much water......

Well today will be the second day of Flow testing......is it possible to spend more than a day testing if it doesn't flow?

I know I've said this before -on the 5th of March "It would be nice :)

I am ultra conservative so .2-.4 cu eq is good enough for me. I.e just the copper.
Personally I don't buy the reduced copper scenario, I know that puts me against the geo statement but.."

The which is why I am I was happy with the hole 1 assay,
're the hole 2. I would be happy with .25-.3 cu over a decent length. Maybe a short zone of 150m of .4 or .5

There really isn't much to say, just waiting for more assays and drills.

Utterly agree 're 88e, the bizarre thing is IF Kuparuk is successful Then both companies are probably sitting on the majority acreage of the hottest oil place on the planet.
It really will be the eagle Ford moment.....

I think there has been so many positive drills that have ended in failure on the north slope that everybody is saying, show me the oil before we get excited...
An important point though is that winx for example had positive LWD results however wirelogging was not good enough and so they didn't flow test.
The main drill and the sidetrack have obviously passed both the LWD and the wirelogging other wise they wouldn't be moving to flow testing.
So this is already more successful than any aim North slope drill apart from alkaid imo.

The porosity level for the kuparuk was the highest zone in the Charlie well, and that was very much not perfectly located.

Just imo, but the LWD will have given them more than enough to suggest whether oil will flow and you don't do all that and then put down a perforated liner unless it was positive.

I am NOT an expert. I've picked up a few bits from the north slope over the years. But as per the winx drill, we only know what the company tells us, or doesn't tell us and we either believe the company or not. Sometimes I believe them sometimes I dont. But 're panr they will know now whether it flows, it will be apparent straight away, but it if does flow how much will take a little while as they need to flow out the mixture of water, oil, drill lub etc
Just imo but if doesn't flow we will hear today and they will move really sharply to the first hole upper zone. There is no point hanging about if kuparuk doesn't flow.

I am not sure i bow to your superior weather prediction skills.
If it doesn't flow they will quickly get test equip down the main hole (72 hrs) and then test. A look at the GFS weather maps for that region shows well below sub zero temps for another couple of weeks.
My guess would be 1 upper zone at least if kuparuk doesn't flow. If it does flow they will leave all the upper zone and perform some good testing of the flow rates, re choke - 24-48hr shut in etc.

Geologically this is the lowest COS of all the targets (I believe from memory) , so its the greatest benefit and lowest risk as the chances were largely discounted.

Btw this isn't the main test its just the first test, they had to do it as the only opportunity.

Ok so your 50\50 is plucked out of thin air...

If they have drilled it twice and seen oil twice in the logs and found the saturation, porosity etc to justify a new expensive sidetrack. They must have had a good sight of the trap, seal etc, chargeability. Its all about how the oil moves is situ now.
Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but why 50%?

FTF,
Your falling into the trap of "grades...grades....grades"
Finding 200m oz of gold on the moon doesn't help if there is no way of getting it.
The costs of doing any major work out at Escalones is huge. The cap ex will be astronomical. You will need to build a small village out on the mountain side.
The beauty of bushranger is that towns exist a few miles away, electricity, expertise machinery is all but a stone throw away. There is.no political risk.

It's quite bizarre. But Otto choose to be paid in panr shares and panr wouldn't want the other 10%, if the LWD results were not good. Otto certainly wouldn't agree to a 3 month standstill.
So we know the sidetrack was successful, we know the original drill was successful, we know they thought they found oil in the kucupuk section on the original drill, and this has been found in the sidetrack.
They have now perforated for testing. With more zones in the original drill to test as well, time allowing.

They are talking about the sidetrack, that was drilled with the sole purpose of testing the bottom kuparuk zone. I.e they have done the drill got the initial results from logging while drilling,they are perforated and are now seeing how much oil they get.

"The Company has successfully completed the sidetrack to the Kuparuk section of the Talitha #A well, have set a liner and perforated the Kuparuk. Testing operations are expected to commence shortly. The Company will provide an update on completion of the initial phase of testing operations which is expected to be early next week. As previously announced, oil has been encountered in the Kuparuk Formation which is a major regional producer on the Alaska North Slope and a successful test would represent a significant event for Pantheon."

you don't perforate and test if you didn't detect oil with the LWD.....surely the only issue now is will it flow and the rates.

I agree, bring on those pleasant surprises and the revenue! :)