Member Info for theiceberg

A cracking result, a tiny section of the lesser zone, with only 2 fracks has delivered 40 bopd. We look on target to get the better bopd from the top zone to allow the 1500bopd from a full production well.
From this at theta we could be looking at a 80 to 150 bopd which might tentatively equal 1500-2000 bopd fully fracked in production.
All reserves etc updated.

Excellent result so far.

I am reading(sometimes), but I am deliberately staying a bit quiet on many of the topics here.
Steve you said "Making money on the market isn't just about big wins, its about limiting losses."
i could not agree more (I have a pinned tweet which says pretty much this). Any fool can get lucky, invest in a company early, watch it get pumped and make money. However the successful people on AIM understand the key is not losing money. Even if it means passing up on 4 or 5 opportunities.

You have to understanding RISK.
That's why I loved buying into XTR, how much we get in the end doesn't bother me too much (whatever it is I am 99% confident I'll make money). It's the fact that, IMO, I saw very little chance of losing money, that drew me to XTR.

Sorry I mistyped the cos of theta in the post below, but there is no edit function

Cos is seriously misunderstood, it's been misunderstood for years on AIM - it's often been corrected as well.
Cos is a probability calculation , importantly it's calculated as if the factors are independent and they are not, then calculated as if they 're dependent when they are not. I know that's comfusing. For example if all trap, seal and other factors have a 90% chance then multiplied it comes out at 72% ( for example )
There have been a few scientific papers that have looked at cos and compared it to the actual success or failure of a well.
When comparing 1000 wells. The figures are very different.
A cos of 40% has only a 15% success rate. A cos of 70% has an 80% or higher success rate.

So to answer the question 're thetA, it's an exploration well, so its impossible to give any of its components that make up cos more than 90%, which is why it's at 70%.
The chances of two 90% things happening is 81%...The chance of three 72%.

To finish off, in the industry an exploration well at 70% is as good as certain as you can be. But it allows for that small amount of 10% chance for each component, that geology can sometimes throw up.
Cos is a geological chance and has nothing to do with the incompetence of the crew, rig or engineering solution.

Solid, if not spectacular assays from 19.
It all reinforces the size of RC. Tonnage size grades jorc, ending in more money paid by AA or A.Other

Agree steve, I don't give a fig for charts, but there is a clear closing wedge From the moment the share spiked from hole 1.
That closing wedge should conclude in feb, from which point it's either a break out of a drop.
The implication is clear that the market has done all it's positions, the share isn't over sold or under sold, the profit takers and traders are neutralized and vit's waiting for clarity, once it's got that clarity the market will move.

Not for xtr but for porvenir.
Rough figures released after hours and on tsx today
Are cut off .016 cueq 350mt at .44 cu eq
All pretty ball park. Basically racecourse but smaller.

I think results are highly dependent on what and how they want to release them now.
The drill should be in the pay zone as we speak. Obviously they might report when they leave the pay zone, or keep it until the drill is finished prior to logging.

're the flow testing, the fracking should be done by now, so if they chose they could release the first test results this week. Or wait until all zones are tested and report maybe week.

What will panr choose?

She’s doing well so far today

This isnt in anyway an argument or leading to one (I hope). It simply facts.

If Berenbergs valuation for Havieron is correct then we get the following.
5% = 228m
10% = 450m
100% = US$4.5bn

If we convert that to AUD$ it comes out at about $6.5b

The entire market cap of Newcrest is AUS$ 17.5bn (as on close of play friday)

That would mean that Havieron is valued at more than 1/3 rd of the Market cap of the whole of Newcrest. Not only that, but Havieron without the gold being processed(which will be done and owned 100% by Newcrest at Telfer), without a completed mine plan, still being explored, exc funding is still worth more than 1/3 of newcrest.

We can look at it another way.
if GGP's 5% is worth $225m, then Newcrest's 70% is worth usd$3bn (4.3bn AUD$)
So 17.5bn of Newcrests Market Cap incs the 4.3bn of Havieron. That leaves about $13bn of value for all of Newcrests other projects including Cadia, Red Chris, Telfer, Lihir, Wafi and the actual processing of anything from Havieron which obviously isn't included in GGP 5% valuation.

Now i know we are comparing what the market values things as, rather than an independent valuation. But the figures are quite striking as it's implying that Hav in it's current state is worth about the same amount as Cadia in it's current state.

Ill leave others to suggest whether that is realistic.

Just seen this, there is an Alex Terry who follows me on twitter and liked some xtr stuff. I would assume it's him as it's too much of a coincidence.

Porv.
“ It's not enough to beat one's cut-off grade, (which itself probably assumes $5/lb,) “
As said by you this morning. It’s an absurd comment. The cut off grade is now average for most porphyry deposits like this. It has nothing to do with $5 lb. Unless you think Rio, Anglo, Newcrest are pricing at $5 a lb. The cut off grade is based on opex which is pretty standard across most projects and certainly cheaper for xtr than most would be.

desteen, waiting for new news, very much a wait and see time.

Porv, but your not right, time and time again people point out how wrong you are, you ignore them and go quiet for awhile and then post the same rubbish again.
You've been wrong so many times I am not sure you know what right is anymore?

Re the CGP article and newcrest, CGP have had awful results, tbh they haven't had anything except for ENSA. SO if newcrest have withdrawn, then It's been fully expected for ages. It does show though that copper projects and copper exploration does not just happen as a guarantee, its still rare to get a good, big copper project.

I think it's worth revisting how unusual Bushranger is.

It's massive, huge comparable to the biggest copper projects in Australia by size.
It's in Australia.
It's in a mining district.
It's pretty close to surface.
There is plenty of man power, expertise and machinery within easy distance.
Infrastructure is excellent, with Major roads and some of the highest rated power lines in the country only a few km's away.
There is local living quarters-hotels-houses to let in the local vacinity, so very little onsite living will be required - unlike most copper projects around the world.

XTR is trying to find more copper is a defined open pit (which might expand) - finding more copper is an area that requires to b edug out anyway, cuts the extra costs of copper production down massively.

With two porphyry's Ascot and Bushranger can share processing plants (i.e the first 5 years for example can dig the best of each porphyry quickly paying off any capex).
by and large its a single product (copper) so capex costs will be completely dependent on the TPA.

To suggest that companies won't want a project that guarantee's copper for 30 years - at a reasonable price. with massive reserves for the balance sheet in the lowest risk area of the world is barmy.
Are the grades good enough (well Rio, Newcrest, Anglo etc all seem to think they are as they have similar grades in areas which will likely have larger costs!)

The basic metal work is certainly a requirement, so nice to see it done. From memory it's 12 weeks or so for the kind of results, but obviously that's a Gross generalisation.
Good to see gold copper combined for ascot.
I still don't think the moly is commercial, but it's 100% right that it's in the metal work.

A good rns to release into this kind of market!

As an aside if a company does a deal using vwap on an ongoing basis, it’s company governance 101, to write in a clause saying that short positions are not allowed by the counterparty. Assurances are normally sought.

Big takeaway is that 50-80 bopd from testing in the next fews weeks, would equate to 1000-1500 bopd from a full length fractured horizontal.....and the field would could hold 400 wells, so half a million bopd if when the field is in full flow in 10 years time.

If testing lines up and the new hole hits then a mcap of 3-5bn looks likely imo. Biggest exploration on the planet this year according to them.

I agree they might want to invest at a higher rate, just me being greedy. :)

Ella, think of it as a driver who likes to be speed, who's got so many points on his license that he slows down to 30 every time now.....the problem is many folks might consider the driver to be an un safe driver, even if they don't get caught speeding again...
I'll leave it there....