Member Info for theiceberg

Cheers whitts, I check the assays from feb but didn't go back to jan...

F it.
Sorry just lost a lot of typing.

Far more simply.
21 is very nice.
24 is good considering where it is.

I wondered where 22 and 23 were....

The drill summery is interesting.

It means Jorc maybe end of May more likely june.

Then I realised that they have inc 22 in the drill summery but have never released in an RNS, they must have forgot (as far as I can tell)
It came out at about 250-300m at .25 ish. Which considering where it is is very very nice imo. Huge tonnage albeit lower grade.

I think it’s right they are cautious, there are two BFF zones to test - so if everything goes perfectly that’s 3 weeks. But if they have problems such as the SMD, more blizzards etc (cool video on this from their official Twitter feed) then it might be six weeks. It makes sense to plan for the worse and set expectations for the market accordingly.
We know that 3 weeks from say the 8th is the 29th of March which would just give time to allow a second test at the SMD. However 6 weeks certainly won’t.

I think the market has accepted that the SMD won’t be tested now (it will wait until summer and alkaid.)
Just my opinion.

Only down 7.7% at close. Looks like it regain most of the drop even by close of monday.

We have one set of flow equip (which I assumed back in Jan) we have two holes that need testing, both look very promising.
We have decided to test the bigger of the targets first, then possibly the second one straight after (although it has already tested with lots of oil) , if not it will be in the summer with alkaid, and we will probably come back to it next winter.

I know there is a bit of extra stuff, but in a nutshell that's where we are.

I would have thought the worse case option would have been to have sealed the blocked 10 ft perf. Then re done the process either above or below, with a new perf and frac. However this would have taken 10 days or so and they wanted instead to ensure they did the theta test.
As problems come is this far below anything concerning.
It’s a major plus that the the theta hole is complete and all ready for testing.
Just a shame it’s been released on a risk adverse day- with Russia bombing nuclear power plants!

Obviously it's a pain that we won't get the SMD flow rates, however they clearly think the theta flow rates will be better based on their data. If the SMD is still expected to be around 100bopd, then it's logical that there Lower BFF will be higher and maybe significantly so.....
You would have thought that they have at least 4-5 weeks left in the season (otherwise 88e is in serious trouble) - so there should be time to do both, weather permitting.

It looks like a quiet 2 week period before we get news now :)

Somebody has just brought $1m worth in a single trade - it shot the price right up, before drifting down a bit. It accounts for 2/3 of today's trades so far...not exactly pocket change.

I was wondering when copper would rise, you've got the negative effect of slower growth due to the oil price, war etc, but the military uses a lot of copper, which will more than make up for it and everyone will want to get their own internal copper reserves to max.

Unfortunately oil stocks attract a certain type of investor. I am not accusing anybody in particularly here
It attracts pumpers, fraudsters etc in hope of a quick buck. The simple truth is 50% of small investors on these boards, forums, chat rooms etc are the kind of folk that would sell drugs to kids if it made them money. Most of the rest are far too innocent for their own good.
As always this is just my opinion from 20 years around these people.
If anybody remember the likes of usop they will understand what I mean. 88e is mostly harmless in comparison.
Scot is abrupt and probably autistic and maybe needs to work on his people skills (don’t most of us) but there is far worse out there.

Looking at the latest RNS today. It's worth stepping back and looking at what XTR have achieved in the last 12-15 months.
Bushranger is a deposit that has bamfoodled many geologists and many companies.
XTR have stepped in and found a massive system at race course nearly 2 km long and a second porphyry at ascot below this.
They have done so much drilling and have looked at it correctly through the lens of more surveys, all this in the 12-15 month timeframe.

Anyway back to the RNS - Ascot is providing up as thought, personally I am glad that they are talking about it extending south now, as that it what I've been banging on about for months . I've always been a bit perplexed about the centre bit between Bushranger and Ascot, I am not sure why they thought it would be heavily mineralised, it doesn't look like it is, but thats not a problem. Does bushranger extend south? I am not convinced imo But i do think that a further porphyry might exist to the south of Bushranger and to the west of Ascot, following the same angles as bushranger and ascot. As i said last year , I also think a porphyry exists to the east of Ascot.

I don't think Xtract have really done anything wrong, they have been pretty spot on with everything. I don't think the market has awoken to what is in the ground.

They are not two separate things Rob. The only way they would be separate is if the contract specified everything that was relavent, it would be thousands for pages long!

I've dealt with many corporate contracts, the appendix will detail many of the terms, but the appendix won't re-write the entirity of exploration law and best practise.

Simply, as i said, a company has never declared a resource for a resource it doesn't control. Practically it can't as it won't have the detailed log and assay information and it would be against UK law to provide this information to AA, without declaring it. There is a term called" access to the dataroom ", which generally has a legal standing and allows a third party company to gain access to commercially sensative information and in turn, puts a legal obligation on that company as to how they use it. This doesn't exist for AA, (XTR would have to announce this via an RNS) they are only told what we are told, nothing more. (In practise this might include a slightly more detailed analyst but certainly not enough information for them to declare a legally recognised resource figure).

I think your getting yourself confused and are having to go to things so abnormal that they have never been done before to justify it.

“ Lack of wording to explicity detail who's responsible for identifying 2mt is what I am highlighting”

Rob, it’s really clear in exploration law that the only people able to define a resource are the people who own the resource. That’s the whole point of the jorc code. There has never been an example of a none controlling company declaring an legally recognised asset size. Simply AA cannot make a declaration that 2MT has been reached, it’s utterly inconceivable.

On the other foot, obviously anybody can declare an intention to mine. I would be gobsmacked if this isn’t backed up by a minimum standard such as a PFS, Or bankable FS. Maybe a max % contingency ie excluding a scoping but accepting anything else.
As always just imo

Looks like 38 and 39 have top and tailed the ascot intrusion as it moves south. (I can't see why they would have drilled like this unless they did hit the intrusion.

A decent cluster at 41 etc trying to identify the depth imo

Andrew that's what I've been leaning towards...There is no way the model will be ready in H1 now. I was waiting to see how many new assays they had received but imo we are still 3-4 months away from getting the assays needed for the model and new jorc. It's not Colin fault, just a lab that s slowed up.

You maybe right scot, we both agree 're potential to massive share price increases. I am not a LT investor. I learnt many years ago that you buy into these drills ultra eArly and ensure you have multiple escape points, so I brought in early Jan at 73p and will be out at some point during or after flow testing, after alkaid if every thing goes wrong (v.unlikely).
I think last year it was about 32p and I sold making nothing.
I am not here for the long term and generally view oil explorers very negatively.
Everything going well atm and here's hoping for 150bopd from theta, or 100 from the SMD.

Yep def meant vertical. so replace lateral with vertical.
Re taps I was using this https://www.alyeska-pipe.com/historic-throughput/
I knew that average output hadn't been above 500K since back in 2018, but whether its 350 or 480k is pretty meaningless. The point was that getting 4000 bopd from a hole with 30 holes would give 120k a year. that would be a quarter of the entire oil output of alaska from a relatively small single development. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=47696#:~:text=Crude%20oil%20production%20in%20Alaska%20averaged%20448%2C000%20barrels,of%20more%20than%202%20million%20b%2Fd%20in%201988.

IMO thats utterly unrealistic, alaska doesn't support Middle eastern oil flows.

Looking at the WIllow development plans, i think we get something completely achievable, which is what i was driving at. this is low impact pads, with 10-12 drills from a pad, each hole contributing 1200bopd with a horizontal, which as i said, would be from a flow test of a vertical of 100-150bopd.

I agree it's what's panr are hoping for (at least like you, it's what i think its what they are hoping for) When i say fantastic i mean, it would be fantastic and incredible as it would give around 800m a year profit for a decent development. There is the scope for at least two distinct production fields if the testing pans out and companies will pay billions for it.
I just wish folks didn't post really long pseudo science about dream like flow rates, PANR doesn't need it, we just need the basics, which the geology and testing to date indicates is very reasonable and likely, then we get a massive share price!

Cheers. I feel like a grouch, it won’t make any difference as bigger more researched investors will buy up but it’s not fair for smaller investors to sell out if it’s 150bopd thinking it’s a bad result and miss out on the gains.
I have no doubt 150 would underpin the 1bn barrel plus and commerciality.

It would be nice, but pardon the French b######.
The aim of a really good, long horizontal on the north slope such as the planned willow production, is 1200 bopd. That equates to 100 bopd or so from a lateral.
The entire tap s production is something like 350k bopd.
The idea that we can produce 35k bopd from a few pads and 30 odd holes would be fantastic.
The idea that we could get 4000 bopd from a single hole or even 400 from a lateral, is dream like, but it isn't going to happen and building up expectations is dangerous.
Make no mistake, 100-150bopd from theta would be incredible and rerate the company, significantly more ain't going to happen with this geology.

me bad
Alkaid #1
o Single Frac Stage
o Produced 108 BOPD
it was this for alkaid, giving the potential 1200 bopd with a horizontal.

So a single frac for theta will hopefully be similar if not better!