Member Info for theiceberg

I wanted to get a proper look at the figures etc before commenting.
I've given my timescales May-June for JORC and think we are still probably at the mid May Mark. I think all the assays are in for the PIT(there might be one or two more, depending on how big they want to make it). I am getting around 1.8Mt of copper, which is just shy of the 2Mt (obviously), tbh I don't think this really matters as the additonal copper etc from ascot will quickly take it well over. The grades recently have just come in a bit shy.
I've also been doing quite alot of reading about the sub-subduction fault. the guess was a NE-SW trending fault that ran thought hole 38/39 roughly.
It looks like it might go through 44-45-46 or even further NW to 47. The angle of the strata dip will be important, as it will determine how deep the intrusion is. The amount of drilling is clearly to get a good understanding. Without any information it's not possible to draw any conclusions and we don't even get visuals of these holes anymore.

I'll be honest I don't think the market really knows what to make of things, the JORC will help, the assays for holes 31-47 will help even more, but by heck they are working hard down there! BTW there is also I think enough drilling to get a JORC of Ascot and the extensions probably in the Autumn.

JL,. I do have an issue with your reference to the 50 bopd from a vertical well. You simply can't conclude that this is the max figure from a vertical well. This was the figure from only 3% of the oil column being exposed and then only a percentage of this actually producing. If they really wanted to maximise from a vertical well it would be many many times higher.
You said that they are still a long way from proving commercial oil being proven, of course they are (in a away) as that was never the point of this campaign!

Somebody else mentioned about no wirelogging and this being a failure...Lets be honest here, they have LWD. They have logging in casing. They have flow test and oil samples. From Talitha, they have LWD, Wirelogging, flow tests and oil samples. All of this is for the same reservoir. That's loads of data. Of course having even more data i.e the wirelogging for Theta would be beneficial, but its hardly going to change much.

Going back to commercial. We obviously have no way of determining that, however 50 bopd flowing from less than 3% of the oil column would highly suggest that this will be commercial.

Now this is just IMO, but if we combine both sets of data (Talitha and Theta) we get some interesting results. We get a lack of migration of the oil (i.e plenty of it is down dip), this along with the flow figures at Talitha indicates that the oil reservoir is probably more satuated than they thought i.e more OIP. The fact that it flows easily from very small areas of perforation would indicate that it moves more easily than they thought and importantly it moves the entire 13-14 miles of the reservoir. i.e more recoverable oil. Only they know how much, but i wouldn't be surprised at an increase of OIP of 30% and an increase of recoverable barrels to 1.8bn. I also wouldn't be surprised if the best area is actually to the SE of Theta, maybe 2 miles or so towards Talitha.

Finally, the rest of the projects on the north slope are well and truely banjaxed. Whether its federal lands or exxon asking 1bn a year for access to TAPS. It could be argued that if all risks are taken into account that the LBFF is less risky.
If the Alaskan govt hasn't contact Pantheon yet, it's only a matter of time. With all the risks weighed up, this is THE oil play that any major will want to get involved with in North America. The timing is perfect for PANR, which is why we are seeing buying at this level.
Just IMO.

Just like talitha, we've had many on the board saying this season was a failure etc, however the market (and it's still early) seems to like it. We've held onto gains of 70-80% and just like last year rather than dropping, the SP is holding its own well and looks likely to go up. It's shook the traders out (see this mornings 5% drop as a perfect example).

It will be interesting to see how they get the volume to continue, we might well see some nice 5% rises followed by very temporary short drops as it rises up.

Not sure how long it will last, but the rinse and repeat continues.

Sorry for typos in the below, the amount of admits crashed the website and I wasn t able to review it.
I was going to make one more point about laterals and the size of the lbff. Lateral do far better in a bigger oil column. You will want to frack up and down the column, by maybe 50-100feet, so will want a 200-250ft column ideally. The lbff supplies this easily, if you wanted to devise a perfect lateral oil resource on the north slope, it would probably be the lbff, it's size, the amount of recoverable oil, it's closeness to infrastructure, the api of the oil,the strata....
If a company waits for a long flow - commercial flow test then it will be paying tens of billions, just imo but they will be queuing up to take this well before then particularly with so much oil unbeatable for geopolitical reasons.

Everybody is allowed their own opinions obviously, but I really don't understand some of the negative comments by the longer term holders.longer
They have said time and time again this was about the Ali of the oil, the size of the oil columns and the spatial movement of oil. This information was required from the 4 distinct zones at talitha (lbff, lower slope, upper slope and smd) and 2 distinct zones at theta (upper and lower ). They have successfully flow tested 4 out of the six zones.
To put this into context, as far as I can tell this is more zones flow tested than any none major company on the north slope. Certainly in recent memory, regArdless it's an amazing achievement.
They have also drilled and flow tested a hole in the same season! How often has this happened!
I appreciAte that not everything was achieved but it's still pretty amazing.
They have never said this was about commercial rates, or even rates that could be deemed commercial.
There was plenty of reason to think that the lbff was not connected, it could simply be that the zone narrows down to much and breaks at some point...that the api is near identical at both ends is massive news.

Even if the company was planning to get a large farm in, or sell it up completely, they would still have plans extending into next year. It would simply be poor negotiating not to.
Personally I would be astonished if we own 100% by the end of the year.
They will present the new findings, drill alkaid and the starting pistol will be fired.

The main blockage is at talitha, which is why they’ve said they will need an additional sidetrack here.
There is also a smaller blockage at theta, which is why they have struggled to get all the fluids out (less than half) although if they think they can go back then it’s obviously a much less severe blockage in size and depth.

Re the 12-14 weeks until the next drill that’s not much time tbh, at least to me. The sp will start to respond 4 weeks or so before spud so 8-12 weeks. Between now and then we’ve got maybe more testing and flow results, we’ve got presentations and more analyst of reservoirs. There really isn’t much scope for a much of a fall in the sp
All this is in an sp which is already high and with an rsi ready to ride the next wave.

Yep it will be very nice indeed if they can go back to testing.
I am not sure what more guidance they can give tbh. It’s simply down to weather. Set expectations low and anymore testing is a bonus!
They did sound very happy with everything they’ve got so far, they have all the data and still seem confident that everything is excellent.

.......shrugs shoulders.

The share has held up very strongly. I do wonder who has been buying up the traders shares since the theta rns.

A small hit from the knock on of 88e (unwarranted).
I think it’s actually in panr s favour as it shows how unique our licenses are.
Panr have flow tested now from alkaid, talitha and theta.

I understand what your saying Seahawk but the company have said that the flow test has proved or exceeded the 1.2bn of recoverable oil, they will have the figures of xx bopd per a xx ft of pay zone.
They have these figures for either end of the lbff. They also have a bonus of the slope at talitha. The upper bff is a none reservoir atm. It will be great to test it but atm nothing is valued to it.
Because the smd flows all the way to alkaid, the test of the smd adds maybe 100-150 m barrels. In the grand scheme of proving 1200m barrels at either end of a massive oil reservoir it’s small chips. (Although I except it was a major goal of 2021, events since then with the lbff, have superseded this).
I am not pretending that everything is perfect but as I say, getting flow rates of bopd per a ft of oil pay at either ends of the biggest oil find in North American this year can only be termed a success.
Btw I don’t thing they will test again. I am not sure it’s needed. If they do then brill!
As always just my opinion and every investor will have there own view as to how successful a company has been.

Seahawk.
According to the presentation “ Objective of winter testing & drilling (Talitha & Theta West) is to determine reservoir deliverability. It is not about maximising flow rates – these are vertical test wells.”
On the basis of this we have successfully tested the LBFF at both locations, since the lbff is the biggest primary target then that’s successful. Not testing the SMD is a pain but alkaid is far more important here.

Feel free to, I don't post or read anywhere but here. It's nothing ground breaking, just trying to correct some of the silly comments on here about flow rate.:)

That would be fantastic from the lower BFF, wouldn't it!
Now imagine if we had received this from an RNS with say a 100ft perforation from the best section of the BFF...
The thing is we have pretty much done that.
Instead of a 100ft section we have only perforated three 10ft sections so only a third of this, so we would expect 130bopd.
Each 10ft section is not from the prime section of the 900ft column, they have decided to get the best data by taking sections of the top half of the column. maybe 1 of these sections will be the prime one, maybe not, but the whole 400ft thats been partially sampled will not be.
Now we also only have half of the fluid recovered (for a test like this you would be expecting 90%>), this kind of indicates that we are not getting flow through maybe 50% of the perforated holes.
Given all this an initial of 100bopd and a sustained of 50 bopd is incredible in this kind of test.
The BOD will know that with a full 2 month test, cleaning equipment etc and a full 100ft perforated section, they would get stunning results. They will know the pressure, how much of the 10ft sections are flowing etc. This is why IMO, they have declared so openly that the results have exceeded expectations and that they might well be increasing the recoverable oil figures from the 1.2bn for this section.
Simply the results (BOPD) don't matter as much as the BOPD to perforated and flowing section ratio.
The small punters, probably don't realise this, which is why they are selling, they would prefer 250-300 BOPD from the whole oil column, even though it would be worse. However the bigger players and funds all seem happy, which is why they were patiently buying nice and slowly. As has been said the same happened with the Talilha well, when it was misunderstood by small retail and over the following 2-3 weeks it rose. IMHO this will be above 140p by the end of the first week in April easily.

Yep your obviously right with your second post. The market has this completely wrong with a mcap of 1bn. The bod have this completely wrong. The independent analysis of recoverable oil is wrong. WH, canaccord, sp angel have it completely wrong. The farm in offer of over 1bn had it completely wrong.
But your right with your second post bringing up points addressed 100 times. Well done.

I think today was a classic one by the market makers. Good news is released, the market makers have orders to fill and need the shares from the traders who are looking to sell. The best thing to do....raise the price to give them some profit, maybe 10% or so. Take the share price up to its point of resistance (140p), cap it at 140p and watch the sells come in, buy up the drop with AT trades until the price goes back to 140p, then rinse and repeat. Never let the price drop so much that traders want to buy back in again. Let the volume increase.
What happens tomorrow is anybody's guess, but the trend over the next 10 days will be to inch it higher particularly if the sells dry up. If it goes above 140p then they might take it to 155-160 to try another volume grab from traders.

Just imo.

Ted, you've been posting from a slightly half empty glass pov, since the share was 14-15p 2 years ago. With 300k shares you said you have you are qtr million quid up!
That kind of answers your question.
The share price is continuing to go up...as sp angel said today to their clients..".pantheon has taken a target reservoir and proven an extensive oil reservoir...now onto production."

Its interesting, at least to me, that they have tested 450ft of the oil column, i.e they expected and one would assumed they achieved flowing oil from it. This means the majority of the vast BFF flows oil in a vertical (let alone a horizontal). It means that big fracks (30-40) can go into a horizontal to maximise flow.
Its a shame that a few folks were talking about BOPD rates of upto 400 (which was never on), it's clear that the company's numbers were around 80-100.

Just IMO, but I don't see PANR doing anymore stand alone winter drills now. It will farm out a minority of the BFF for x.x billion, maybe come back for a bit of testing next year for the upper BFF and the SMD. I think it will farm out a minority of the Alkaid for x.x billion.
With production and the next drill only 12-14 weeks away it won't be long before the SP drives higher, particularly with the free float shares being removed from the market.
Finally maybe a presentation in 4-6 weeks time to show what their thoughts are re new higher reserves.
there should be time for more testing, but the company is clear imo, they have enough to get 1-2-3 billion whatever it is for 20,30,40% of a single resource.