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Interesting news article from awhile ago. It might well have been posted and I missed it.
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1548730/five-dead-in-gold-mine-collapse-in-storm-hit-mozambique/amp
I didn’t realise it was actually against the law to mine there when it’s raining heavily. It explains the delays for manica and why it’s probably ready to go now, finally.
But also explains why the Jan-Marc figures are probably not great for the alluvials. April to June should be much better and representative. That said there is a sizeable chunk of unsold gold to come into the coffers from the alluvials.

Re funding. I thought they would raise back in Feb March when the price was 6-7p. That they didn’t indicates to me that Colin won’t know. He’s not stupid when it comes to the ways of the markets and won’t raise now when he could have raised back then. At least imo.

Andy, just my opinion, but I don't think trucking that far is really possible.
As you've said from an environmental pov, the diesel would be a big no no. Electric could do it, but the range might be an issue (i.e need charging after 1 or 2 trips). The fleet of trucks would be huge and very expensive. Locals wouldn't want that many trucks, even electric on the roads. Bushranger is a bulk project, if it were an iocg with grades of 2-4% it might be more possible. Finally the straight up opex would be too large 're the above point.
Hub and spoke works well as a model but unfortunately not this time imo.
Just imo sorry :)

I agree to some degree, I've always been a believer that you find interviews interesting, but the real gold standard should be the RNS. That said he's been very good in not giving false hope for manica for example. Obviously now he can give some guidance because it's finished and is in final testing. He also knows what the tpa rate of the plant is and the expected head grade so can give some reasonable figures.
He's not been too honest 're eureka imo.
For bushranger I think he's been honest and given the information as he's told by the geos. I do question whether this is right or not sometimes. We simply don't know whether 2mt is there or not to judge him by. We do know that it's very big, contains a lot of copper and is of a grade which is comparable with several big commercial Aussie projects.
At the end of day the many many drills are really doing the talking.

Lots of news today. Sorry no time to read what has been posted, so sorry if its already been mentioned, i am sure most of it has.
The interview was good, not sure why folks thought it was negative and sold.
The term semi-porphyry I think , doesn't refer to the size but the type. There seems to be extensive vertical stockwork - which is the gold carrying component, This does come from the intrusion, but it's not a typical porphyry intrusion style wrt to mineralisation spread. TBH it's probably better which is why the reference is to ridgeway. i.e skarn's dyke's etc.

The best news is the production from manica in the next few days (I know in Colin speak that's probably a week to ten days) so still very near. He again indicated revenue of about 1m a month.

I do think clarity is needed around racecourse - the model JORC etc. In truth I don't really care about the 2MT, we can guess, but we don't know and guesses from 1.2Mt to 2.2Mt are all valid.
The shallower infill to give better-fuller guidance for the first few years of any mine (i.e the capex payback period is pretty standard and will reduce risk for whoever buys it).
The company looks set to do whatever is needed to meet the decision to mine criteria (probably economic in nature).
Eureka is still as mysterious as ever.
We still have the annual review FY accounts. TBH this RNS looks like an information RNS for that. I am not sure the RNS says much that's new. It does reinforce that Ascot is the first new big Lachlan discovery for several years.
Personally if racecourse is derisked further then I can see the Chinese swopping in as soon as Anglo declare their intentions.

As a price, Manica + alluvials-hardrock = 10-15m a year profit. (x5 for a conservative multiplier, that gives us 50-75m MCAP just on the Revenue we are due to start getting in the next month or two). If you doubt that look at the size of the plant for manica and remember the license this is on is OUR license.
Even if your negative about Bushranger, then an MCAP of 50-75m, is the bare minimum starting point. Considering that Bushranger has had 20-30m spent on it then this has to be the start point for any valuation, even under the most pessimistic Valmin calculation. Minimum - absolutely rock bottom minimum, with very little added value gives us 70-105m Mcap.

I am hopeful that the annual statements will bring this all together and show the value, because it will be after the start of Manica production and hopefully, maybe the model and estimated size of Racecourse (not to mention further Ascot drilling as they zero in on the good stuff!)

Currently in a forest with 1 bar of 3G. I can see an rns but very little else ! Hope it’s not too bad

That's one interpretation, but I think he's focused on giving the data he needs to Anglo. i.e this is interim because it would only contain the RC data and not the data from Ascot and porphyry 3 and 4.

The lining up of the gold is really interesting if you look at the diagram of 38 and 39 combined.
It has a small sector of gold at .4gt, then 200-250m extending downing and widening to the 39 data to 14m 1.9gt 30m at .1 that's massively increasing and widening.
Imagine if - off the back of these results they drill down the throat of the new gold intrusion and we get 400-600m of gold starting at .4 at 300m depth, increase to say 4 or 5gt at 800-900m. I think thats what Colin is hinting at.

The model work will be very very different to the model last year. Last's model made no alteration to any of the geology, it was essentially a simple economic model with a bit of basic pit design. All of the Geo work was based on the JORC.
This model is trying to map and plan grades, intrusions shapes etc, all without probably (i am not sure) a new JORC.
On top of that they will be feeding in metallurgy and recovery rates. It will be to a higher confidence level imo.
They will of course keep a running simple model as the assays come in, but this is probably a level or 2 more advanced.

It will be interim simply because the are still processing drills.
The final model and JORC will inc Ascot in some way.
I always thought that may-June was relatively optimistic, with end of may - beginning of june, being possible.

The excitement is the separate gold system. We are finding decent widths of gold and decent grades in places. Not at the same time yet, but likely only a matter of time since there is barely 2-3 holes released yet for ascot and we have 10-15 or so now drilled which we are awaiting results on.
Also the reference to ridgeway.

A separate gold system, who would have thought it ;)
We are starting to get some good open pitable gold values. They are nowhere near close to finding the best gold yet, but bigger width and high values to the ne ....high as at all.
Maybe a massive 2mt copper with racecourse and a big goldy around ascot, also x.x million a year in income due to start in the next few weeks.

I know you should feed the trolls, but I can’t resist. It must be maddening encouraging investors to invest in vast then seeing falls of 15-20% like today and then going on a different board and crowing about a 2–3% fall which is market driven.

I am happy with my buys at 4.8-4.9. And tbh even more happy that folks can buy it a little cheaper than this now, if they want.

Good looking at those ip.
Not on my laptop atm. But this west lobe here https://mobile.twitter.com/IcebergShares/status/1527590360985264129 (sorry done on phone). And the middle bit between that and the east lobe with a Scot is probably the best shot.
The diagram is from 600m.
If we remember back to the video from the weekend, we probably have the east maganomaly being pulled down into the subduction zone and the west maganomaly being the potential pulled up high mineralised intrusion...

We really have a much better idea of the geo now, with massive intrusions which are poorlygraded and have fooled the team a bit (understandably) then smaller (still large) highly mineralised intrusions.

It's not been easy, but through hard work and drilling they are finding the mineralisation they need to make this a top 3 undeveloped copper project in australia.

Btw when we get the new survey I hope we get various depth profiles.

It was the first time today you could actually buy shares. (In any decent amount)

No noise from Colin probably means that he saving it for news to come.

Art, we told you when you said that, why your thinking was wrong. Not least the extra depth that Newcrest has to go to, type of geology and method of commercial extraction. If your going to block cave(which is a huge capex) you need to be ultra precise re mineralisation.

I think it's worth remember what we are looking at here.
We have racecourse which is 1-2km away - which has already been drilled and is at least 50% bigger than the deposit that Porven mentioned, maybe 100 bigger re the amount of copper.
This is trying to explore a second porphyry system, with this hole being only the 2nd or 3rd into the porphyry as we try and find out where it is. This drill is quarter of km away from the maiden drill (35).
The gold is in hole 33, which is half a km to the east in a separate system.

As well as this XTR has:
Imminent income from Manica (maybe 1m a month) - already income from alluivials (last time I think that was about 1m).
We have Eureka - from which we are told we are producing but not much detail yet - despite this the deeper sulphides look very big indeed.
We have the other African gold projects being explorer by the Chinese.

If we take the example of oz minerals, that would be 300-400m just for racecourse. IMO it's good as it shows that oz minerals is prepared to pay up for copper at .4 to .5 % - race course is around .3 to .4 but far more bulk and tonnage and has better cheaper access, electricity, roads etc etc.

Art, you do realise that the gold in his hole, is half a km away, it's not a continuation of anything, it's a completly different system.

It looks like they missed it a touch, which is a shame, still reasonable though. I've got a feeling they knew this, which is why we have 39 next to it.

I have no doubt that a few are getting tempted to go elsewhere, there have been various news drops, or drops in prices that either haven't been received as well as hoped, or give the mirage of oppotunity.
Just imo .
But if your thinking about being tempted, it's worth reminding yourself about why your invested, where the value points are, what news you think will be released. Regardless the grass is rarely greener and you might well find yourself time limited, stuck, missing the news etc.
Just imo as always and at the end of the day, do your research and invest as you see fit.

That is a nice video isn't it.
FWIW at around 16 mins it gives a nice graphic of the subduction zone process that I mentioned in my last blog. the uplift of magma on the left hand side i.e racecourse
The Dog Fault is a more typical sliding fault, probably caused by the retreat, the fault between ascot and racecourse is a small subduction. Obviously this isn't the major subduction fault, it's a small ripple fault. At about 28 mins in it talks about the arc being pushed westwards. It's this push westwards which would have created the ripples. The smaller broken, slightly more barren sections which lie between our two names deposits as well as the rich veins such as 33 encounted.
It's why ascot should be better as it goes south away from the fault and we need to get a handle on how the gold vein that 33 intersected was created.
A bit later in the video it goes into the zone 4 creation of the later gold and copper creators. Again for us specifically, we are on the youngest of the island arc creations i.e zone 4 the time of the secondary re-work with the many pressure fracts etc.
One of the Major issues(positives) for us is the shallow dip of the pressure pipe. (mineralisation intrusion) I do wonder whether re-working occured i.e the ripples of the subduction flattening things.

There is still alot to discover at Bushranger. The video shows how much and quickly our understanding is advancing, how from even Anglo looking at Bushranger we have advanced our understanding. Prospect desperately needed somebody with deeper pockets and belief to come on board and Xtract was lucky enough to provide that with one of, if not the largest drill campaign in the arc in the last year or two.

That Xtract is the highest climber in it's sector today(at this point in time), is a very clear indication that the Market got it badly wrong yesterday. There is a lot of volatility in the oil and mining sector atm and some very aggressive posters, both pumpers and trolls. I don't think either of these groups have been involved with XTR, it was simply misunderstood news.
It does serve as a warning in this current market though, be careful when you buy and sell.

Agree re Zambia. Please please can they sink a deep hole into the west of eureka. I know it requires money but the lack of eureka news-development-production- exploration is almost criminal. The potential in a high copper price environment is…..

Very quickly typed, not a huge amount in it.
https://icebergshares.blogspot.com/2022/05/xtracts-racecourse-ascot.html
Key: Pretty much as expected. A little disappointing between Racecourse and Ascot, however balanced out by the new gold system.
A slowly better understanding of the area, but nothing, nothing to merit the fall that's happened.
I do really hope that Colin talks about a shallow drill plan for 33.
I can't wait for the new drills further south, but plenty to come with the IP survey and African income.