Member Info for TheHoopedBaron

Looking on twitter search "Mozambique Power", there seems to have been a surge in projects getting approval. Mostly smaller localised solar driven projects. The gas to electric Themene project seems a reasonable size but is being earmarked to feed the southern territories and SA. South Africa has been keen for new sources to end its power cut issues so EDM are under increasing pressure to get projects over the line to meet increasing demand not only in Moz but increasingly cross border demands.
I fully expect Ncondezi to go ahead... demand will ensure this is concluded very soon imho.
GLA

Has there been any tariff info released on the Southern power project announced recently as this surely would give ballpark tariff rates for Ncondezi. We could then do some sums to keep us busy ahead of an announcement.
GLA

Hi CF, GGG
I cant see us retaining less than 20%... If they want 20% from us I think they will be made a tempting counter offer for the full 40%.
IMHO 20% or less than suits neither party in the long term.
I fully believe we will retain 40% or 0%. Its a 25/75 bet for me. We are too small for a monster project and we /they know it.
Good times....

Thanks GGG... Lifechanging prospects await

G G G
Has there been any projected timescale of when FC might actually occur assuming the intermediate hurdles are crossed?
Ive got late 2021 in my head for some reason.
Thanks in advance...

I agree.
Dont believe it can happen until contract tariffs etc have been signed up with EDM etc...Pre build at the earliest.
Any earlier could risk our good relationship with the regional govt agencies and could be detrimental to our future solar expansion plans if they think we are only into things short term.

More likely we will see CMEC take a significant slice of our 40%. We would keep an agreed % interest in the project and get a free carry for the build costs.

How this plays out will be interesting as investors.
Will NCCL be bought outright and our shares are agreed at ?pence.
Or will NCCL survive with a % and any deal is then subject to market valuations and manipulation long term?
Will NCCL be valued correctly so we can realise true worth??

I dont know how this will develop. Think i prefer a straight buyout with the solar stuff diverted to a new company. More certain for all involved.

With such potential, I just hope we investors dont get shafted in the details.
GLA

Coincidence or a timely whisper in his ear ahead of developments?

It certainly shines a light perhaps on the reasoning we jumped into the GridX investment in the manner we did... maybe family ties gave us a heads up as opposed to NCCL misusing funds as some have speculated... it puts us in a very interesting place even if the GridX contracts are retained in any sale to CMEC or if its used as an added value enticement to a full buyout.

My rough EPS calculations are EBITDA $175m... say $120m after tax etc. @ 40% = $48m / 350m shares = $0.137 per share / £0.105 roughly.
If we sell 10% of our 40% stake we are losing about $12m per annum in profits = $0.0343 per share (EPS reduces to $0.103 / £0.08).

So the question is what would selling an additional 10% be worth to NCCL? Would it cover our exposure to CAPEX?
Would we need to sell more than 10% for a free carry?
We will soon know...

Hi Extrader,
My understanding of EBITDA figures is that it is the earnings after opex deductions have been made.
I also understand that it is subject to other factors TBC but until NCCL clarifies this then its all guesswork. Tariffs and their associated income / costs structure will be interesting... hopefully not as difficult to understand as an electric bill!
NCCL will no doubt update all the necessary figures once they have an agreement in place and can actually quantify matters properly. I assume this will include proper EPS forecasts for investment purposes.
Exciting times...

I would imagine the EPS will depend initially on the tariffs agreed between the parties involved and together with new integration studies currently being reviewed / developed etc, there may be savings or additional opportunities that will develop further the income streams with the project. I would expect NCCL to measures these impacts and update the figures CF73 has been discussing. They have been positively portrayed so far so if anything will improve the project numbers.
Time will tell but I reckon the original figures quoted will stand up to scrutiny within any analysis as being a decent guestimate at this stage of the game. Anything extra we get is cream on top.

Well i put down all my remaining cash into NCCL this morning ... 373K added in various lumps. Holding about 700K now.
Confident but as with anything keeping my expectations realistic. 8p is my target depending on how much momentum the SP has as it climbs out of the depths. Cant see 10p for a while... perhaps into the New Year as news updates add value.
GLA
Eddie

Like a coiled spring... spread tightening... top price being paid for shares... has to go up fast from here

Whats your thoughts Cateram7 on a buy out price and at what point in proceedings?... before or after its operational?
I would expect an early offer will offer the best chance for a low bid being accepted. The nearer the big money gets the price will go up.
Personally I have no idea on price expectations as the monies involved could be life changing and just thinking about it makes me on edge and desperate for it to happen. Lots of waiting days ahead i think.

Price being held back this morning???
If so then could be a decent move when released... imho

Maybe i expected too much...

Beardozer, i totally agree with your numbers...
I was expecting / would have liked some update / opinion on the market cap, NPV etc from the directors based on what their experience and what their day to day gut instincts are telling them. Is that not reasonable for an Investor Presentation to provide.
I dont feel I really know anything new that would want me to invest further at this stage. Its too wooly with too many unanswered questions. That said, the business plan is well set out and progressing. Its one for the long haul.

DGR my intention was exactly the same as you... to hold long term(ish) and dont mess about trying to be too clever.
Unfortunately I have decided to sell some shares that were bought during the last 25p spike. My plan is to hopefully rebuy later averaging down at the same time to a more comfortable average.
2/3 of my holding is being held similar to yours and I am more comfortable with that longer term should matters stagnate for a bit.

It is simply too risky for fund managers presently.... hence we had an Investor presentation with nobody listening.
Its all a pipe dream yet for the big guys.
Unfortunately for small investors like myself, there is no way I can sit on a "risky" investment for 2 years waiting on the big guys to take notice.
There are better opportunities meantime and I suspect we may still be in the 9-12p range for months to come.
Im still invested in ZIOC but ive had to reduce my exposure this morning... thats disappointing.

What will be the sp at close of play on 28th and close of play 29th?

28th 16p

29th 19p

Then back to 15p for a bit