Member Info for TheHoopedBaron

Im in the same boat Dealer .. long term holder with 27m with a breakeven 0.12p... its best to not watch, painful as it is... when it falters time and again just as it seems to be responding... unfortunately its a day traders plaything until news.

Our day is coming... hopefully sooner rather than later

My opinion is that the appointments are signposts showing us the background progress being made without being RNS worthy on their own merits...

No drilling partner or JV will be announced ahead of the ongoing drill approval process...

we are thru stage 1 (2 more stages to go.. per RNS "Sundagas has achieved the first step of three in securing environmental approvals for the drilling and testing of an appraisal well on the Chuditch field").

In my opinion we are at the front of the queue and our applications will be fast tracked.

Timor will be keen to be seen to be operating in a 100% professional manner, setting the tone for later applications for other fields. They need to build trust again with all funding and drilling operators. A professional approach is the only way they can achieve that, otherwise there will always be a doubt over there intentions and abilities to operate a professional oil and gas industry.

Timor have one shot at this and any shenanigans will be their ultimate downfall. Chuditch can and hopefully will be there showcase.

GLA

Selling .1025'ish.. buying .1080-.11

Added 6.8m @ 0.1068p... all in

Anyone have an opinion as to why we havent seen a trade in almost 2 hours?

BOIL sentiment has definitely changed... breaking 0.00085 this week gave me confidence to buy another 9.7m shares this morning. Been holding for while now so currently sitting with 21m shares. Just need some news flow again and the herd will return.. GLA

Re Range Rover Evoque.. dont buy one. Niece had a diesel.. carbon buildup in exhaust due to short journeys.. costly repair. Electrics were temperamental.. electric door lock replaced 4 times. Also dealership lied to her twice re her warranty... she got rid and bought a Cupra

Possibly a small placing initially, but my gut feeling is there is a coal miner ready to go as soon as we get the solar contracts in place. That is where the longer term funding will come from.
The solar project has replaced the Coal 2 Power project, but only on the signing of solar power contracts will it signify the death of the C2P plant... at that stage the coal is of no consequence to power generation so could be exported instead.
Makes sense to me given there are road and rail networks currently being used for coal exports.. we will just tap into those existing setups and use the coal monies to build solar instead.

Well they have already stated in an RNS that they were looking for a miner to take it on or JV.
They already have the mining permissions in place from the coal power station project.
I would expect a JV with any initial buy-in and ongoing royalties being used to advance the Solar side.
We just need to see what the BOD come up with. India are definitely a big coal buyer already so they would seem an obvious interested party.

Now that we are a designated Green Energy company... what will happen to the coal resource? India looks like the obvious buyer but is it still under our control?
I dont see any clarification until the Solar project is contracted thus finally killing the coal power station.
I do think a coal deal is ready for signature and will finance the Solar expansion.
Interesting weeks ahead... GLA

That would be very nice... I dont think 10p will be needed to buy us out... Im thinking 5p will get a deal done... especially since we are encouraging bids.

Just did same with additional 523300 bought... now got almost 3m of these

Who knows what such a massive resource is worth?
Im not familiar with the structure of launching a mining JV but lets say we restrict the mine value to the easier surface coal of 120m tons over a ten year deal.. coal is approx $325 / ton currently.
Lets say we agree to let our partner run the mine 100% and we just take a flat royalty of say £10 / ton... that equates to $120m royalties every year for 10 years.
Is that realistic?

For comparative purposes... Glencore completed the acquisition of Cerrejón open cast thermal coal mine in Colombia recently by buying out its 2 existing joint partners in a $588m deal.
Cerrejon is also a 4Bn ton resource but it only has approx ten years mineral rights left. Annually it produces about 25m tons per year.. so Glencore must have been looking at a 250M ton resource over a ten year lifespan.

So lets say we mine at 50% capacity of Glencores mine but we have longer timescales and far superior recoverable tonnage. What would Glencore value a JV with NCCL at?
On a royalty basis over 10 years we could be looking at $120m per year = 30p/share per year.
Would Glencore stump up £200m to initially buy in? I dont think thats unreasonable for such an opportunity... for NCCL that is 50p per share as an initial payout ...

We can only dream at this stage as this current plan of solar and coal mine blows the original power plant out of the water.
Lets get the solar agreed asap and then we can sit back with the popcorn and watch how the coal JV develops over the next 18 months.

The historical costs will NOT be reimbursed ie paid to NCCL.
The costs will be credited to NCCL's 40% share of the project build costs which CMEC will undertake.
NCCL will need to finance the remainder of any build cost and this will be by way of a share issue or a negotiated project % giveaway from NCCL to CMEC.. NCCL will in effect have a free carry in respect of the build costs.

The big question however is whether CMEC will make an offer for NCCLs 40%... this offer would factor in the value fror any backdated costs etc as it would need to be sufficient for NCCL to bite.

In the light of the solar project could there be a sale of the C2P project to CMEC with NCCL retaining the site concession allowing NCCL to fully fund and develop the Solar project as a standalone project.
Lots of possibilities coming our way.

From the RNS, the Ncondezi site has the potential for 5000mW... i think this is important info not to be overlooked.

My take on it is that they have initially identified 3 x 500mW areas to work alongside the C2P project which is massive news on its own merit... however should the C2P project fail then NCCl will go widen the solar area and push towards its full potential of 5000mW.

RNS:
The Solar Project will be located within the Ncondezi mining concession 5967C which covers over 25,000 hectares in the districts of Moatize and Chiuta in the Tete Province, which is large enough for solar PV generation potential over 5,000MW. 3 preferred site locations have already been identified, with similar climate conditions, that provide a generation potential of c.500MW each

+25% today so far.. must be a couple of whispers going about... fingers crossed.
If it finishes +40% I wont sleep tonight.
GLA
Eddie

Hi GGG
As with any hush hush conspiracy, I also dont believe NCCL, CMEC or Moz EDM etc would hide from the disclosure of negative news... to do so would require collusion between all parties and could open up those involved to legal action from investors and funding agencies. NCCL would be finished with zero credibility... I cant see them being so stupid and go down that route.
I still think the deal is in the final stages but is dragging its feet due to the global warming concerns that are big news at the moment... in a few weeks however once its become old news then we may get a flurry of announcements quickly.
Im watching for some very big / bigger buys appearing in the lead up to any announcement. Someone will get a whisper in advance.
(Praying)
GLA

CF... I admire your 'glass 95% full' viewpoint but lets be honest, its not in NCCL's interest to keep the price suppressed as a result of withholding news. Surely this is THE biggest milestone to get over and to NOT then update the markets is just unthinkable, especially when heavy criticism is being leveled at individual board members.

Also, do you honestly think given African politics, that there wouldnt have been at least a whisper of a deal being agreed?

Now lets assume you are correct and a deal has been hush hushed.. the only logical reason I can think of keeping it under wraps is from a global warming viewpoint.
A coal project is arguably the most unwanted development any country or business could announce at present... Solar is 100% OK but not Coal powered.
We may be letting the dust (or ashes) settle first before moving forward. I know that's how I'd be thinking if I was involved in this.

There is simply no political or business gain to be had by making a Coal powered announcement at this time. The negative comments world-wide could be very damaging for the Moz government as it would be sending out all the wrong signals and lets face it countries such as Moz are reliant on world Goodwill in their nation building ambitions.

As a LTH i'm getting very nervous about my life savings on this. Im basically locked in on losses as are 90% of us. I do feel that even if we are in a hush hush situation, there is plenty of alternative positive news that could be released to keep the markets happy. In this regard I would urge the BOD to think long and hard on their 'no info' stance. Its just not good enough. They are playing a game with investors hard earned cash and need to get some well worded info out there to allay our fears.

GLA

Hi GGG
Ive been watching the NCCL board for a long time and 100% share everyone's frustration re the lack of news, funding and just general lack of meaningful communication from NCCL.
However re the funding, I am of the belief that the deal must now be imminent, hence the lack of any obvious concern and fundraising activity by NCCL.
If they were of the considered opinion that things were to drag on till September, I am sure funds would be in place already or a deal structured to tap into when required.
In summary, imho no funding comment is a +ve thing and shows we are still expecting near term developments.
For all we know, NCCL and CMEC are already in very advanced talks and a restructuring deal will follow in very quick succession to any tariff news.
I dont think CMEC will want us anywhere near the project long term. so between EDM, CMEC and NCCL, could there be an agreed delay in any official announcement to allow the CMEC / NCCL deal to be thrashed out and present the MOZ government and CMEC a much tidier setup going forward... its all now about deals and political maneuvering in my opinion.

I will be setting my alarm ... imho this is a signal from NCCL ... and they have been known for Friday announcements... fingers crossed we are mere days if not hours away from the tariff agreement