Member Info for thecumbrian

I’m literally at a loss now.
We are told that the future will be a different normal from what we are used to. Is this the end of consumerism, will everything be click and collect.
The old normal success for a business included normally an increase in customers but how can any bus, train, plane , shop that is open to the masses ever be profitable.? We can’t even do back to 50/60s shopping as that was done in small shops where close proximity was even closer than now. With the Uk climate how it is , will all hospitality be doomed b & bs got me or will it all drift to a more normal normal if or when a vaccine is found, and what about anti vaxers will their rights be challenged.
I literally don’t don’t where we will go, I don’t know what happened after 1919 epidemic

Another plus will be reduced fuel prices albeit small ( as most of retail fuel price is tax production costs etc) but every bit helps. People will be eager to get out and about and more people will be going to work and shops will be open. I think this is definitely a hold maybe even a buy

The bus grants are a thankfully received and I am sure will be gratefully applied but the only medium term help I can think of is the easing of the 2m rule with the condition of passengers wearing masks or face protectors or whatever the correct term is. I know this may/ will be strange but maybe we won’t be able to enter places like shops and banks without face coverings as opposed to having to take them off in order to be granted entry.
I can’t think of what else could possible increase passenger numbers.

I agree the current 2m rule is the big obstacle to an early phased reopening of the shops.
I actually could picture some shops being almost mobbed , then the dozens of pictures taken on mobile phones. Then posted on the internet and the harm that would do. One of Greggs’ biggest asset is in it’s management and believe me they will be trying to work out a strategy, as I type this , to minimise the possible contacts in their shops.
Probably with shop layout and design this could be done but I’m sure Greggs will not rush this, they would rather do the job properly ,with a delay than rush and get things wrong. IMO. Good luck Greggs

Believe me , at the moment the price of pork is almost incidental to Greggs’ recovery.
I presume the strategy will be to open the first shops in areas of higher quick in and out areas, such as on industrial estates, in service station and the likes, leaving the inner city centre stores until offices shops and other business get back to work. The road back to business as usual is a long way off yet, but it will return,

Keeps bouncing back off 64p level.
Senior will be a good indicator of larger general market sentiment , when that is restored or unexpected good news arises, Senior will gets it’s chance to prosper, until then I would expect this will just trade the 55-64 area.

I am pretty certain that we will NOT be in the Stone Age this time next year and I’m very hopeful Greggs stores will have queues in and outside into the street ( if the rules allow it) next year, I have got a position and have had a position from a long while ago, and I posted a buy recommendation ( for what it’s worth) in an earlier post, but I repeat I’m not sure about the profitability of opening shops when there are limited customers to buy the goods. Greggs make their money by packing the hungry masses in the stores.
This is a long way off yet.

alas like many no dividend will be paid this spring.

I love Greggs, the business plan, the management, even some of the well priced food.
But my reservations at the moment is the profitability of shops being open, with no real volume of customers until others shops, schools offices and businesses open, which give the high numbers of hungry eaters that the shops are full of. Wherever they are situated.

This will be a different world even after the covid crisis and aftermath has settled, but senior is involved in the production of products used and needed globally. Sure growth will be slow, but with precision equipment it is not always safe or prudent to “make do” and even if fewer mass transport systems are needed , they will still be needed. When production and transportation of goods begin on a mass scale as indeed it will Senior will be well positioned to fulfil the service’s needs.
While this may fall a wee bit I think this is at an appropriate level to but at, even with last years dividend being cancelled, and we can only presume this years will be too, as production through senior’s core companies has been decimated this year.

Greggs are indeed very well placed and much better than most for when un - lockdown phases begin. It would be even nicer if those in the know thought the same and pushed price up nearer £20 although it is amazing the think that it was around the price it is now 12 months ago, before all this woe started.
GL Greggs

I am well aware that Greggs are not simply city centre shops, and they have and will be evolving on a seemingly month by month basis, this came be seen from the headline hitting news over the past year, before covid of course. But please don’t deny the huge amount of trade done in town and cuter centres. I live in a small city in the north of England and there are 4 city centre shops with a further 2 on the city outskirts. So that’s 2/3 of the outlets in exclusively a shopping area.
Hopefully these spaces will not be decimated, thus reducing Greggs potential customers.

I have full confidence in Greggs surviving after the pandemic, my main concern is whether there will be any city centre shops left for people to have the need to go to left after the virus goes and hence a greatly reduced footfall into Greggs shops

Apart from more affluent towns and cities, most town centres are already in a precarious position, appearing to be hosts for eating , snacking and drinking establishments that are fuller than the few shops interspaces between them,
It appears to me that city centre “shopping” is in reality city centre “browsing” and that must of the footfall and I presume money is spent in the coffee shops etc . Greggs is in THE premier position to get a lions share of this revenue, as long as customers go town browsing/shopping , this isn’t a given, but I’m certain than in the medium term as soon as restrictions are eased these town centres will be flocking with hungry thirsty stir crazy customers.
Good luck Greggs, and thanks to all those that are still at working in whatever field, that are helping the wheels of the country continue to grind, albeit at a slower pace.

Using your car crash analogy, the only consolation Greggs has is, is that it appears to have a safety belt and of being better positioned on the road, with having in place it’s own cash , plus the savings made not paying April’s dividend , and new financed loans in place if needed from banks. Fingers crossed that it will help mitigate the severe damage that will be done to all but a lucky few.

I love Gaw. This will weather the storm in my opinion, I feel that the customers here of this niche product, will be even more eager and keen when stores and on line stocks are fully available again,
Production is almost zero atm with only a few staff still working from home. New Angel of death billboards out now, to tempt and tease I presume, so as long as covid 2 doesn’t appear I fully hope and expect £50 in a relatively short period, although I would agree it’s a brave or foolish person who dips his toe into any Market at the moment and would fully sympathise with anyone who keeps away from the markets until normality returns.

Looks like money possibly to be made day trading for the brave but who knows how far this will go.?

Effectively shutting down business ( for how long)
Still a great thirst for this product, maybe even more so after the enforced break, and Angel of Death due soon, although waiting until production starts again and at least “on line “stock available would be a wise move in my opinion. Hopefully players and collectors as eager for war hammer etc after the break.
Gl gaw holders in these hard times and stay safe, and wash your hands.

There’s been at least £1 differences between highs and lows for the past few days.

First off I’m pro pro Greggs as both a business model and a fit for purchase ( filling a need ) product. But not sure if staying open will stay the drop, to £8 as some here are suggesting, as I don’t even know how ANYONE could either guess or predict the value of a business whose trading is almost of incidental value for an undetermined amount of time. I’ve been to my city centre this morning and where yesterday the Greggs stores were almost trading at normal capacity, today with the closure of the seated areas all 4 stores were operating with next to NO customers. I don’t know know someone could call a drop to £8( they could be right or wrong) but I don’t know how a any body could assess if the lockdown ( even if takeaway food exists) is already priced in the recent 40% drop.