Member Info for Thecountofmc

There is a support line around circa 190 that has lasted since 2010 and has held several times. Buying now and discount your purchase with the divi in 2 weeks, would mean you own below this support. Results were good. A new CEO will be found in due course & RSI 31. Only a general market sell off or some bad news that we are not privy to (though should have come out with results this week) so i think its ok for now.

Charlie did ...

The new bond is effectively replacing the existing 6.5% notes due 2021 which have been tendered. Replacing higher rate borrowing with a lower rate. Sensible and should be positive.

Closing Share Price on 20 Oct 17 (The weekend Mediclinic bid announced) 261p, (Mediclinics closed at 640p) Today Mediclinic trading 703p and Spire trading 229. Was previously a cash/share offer mix. Mediclinic had good earnings in the interim..... You do the math

Shire (NASDAQ:SHPG)/Takeda (OTCPK:TKPHF) is trading at 30% of deal success, while the probability is probably 80% at this point. Today a preliminary deal was announced, and the firms now have 15 days to announce a firm, definitive deal. The most complex issues, such as price, are already decided, so the chances of this deal becoming firm and then completed are very high. Another high-conviction idea is Shire. The agreement with Takeda offers a 22% spread, I expect the deal to be formalized within 2 weeks and close by year end. There are no antitrust risks. Fears are driven by a potential shareholder vote at Takeda, the board approval needed also at Takeda, and the reciprocal due diligence currently in process between the two parties. However, Takeda CEO could never make a preliminary offer for Shire without an informal pre-approval from his board - it would be completely uncommon in Japan and elsewhere. Japanese shareholders have never voted down a deal to acquire a company recommended by the board. Finally, the two companies work in similar sectors and know each other very well. It is extremely unlikely that a 10-day due diligence shows anything new and material enough to block the deal. The strategic rationale for the deal is strong, and there are other potential bidders for Shire.

Great article on Seeking Alpha titled - SA Interview: M&A And Event-Driven Investing With Masbro Advisors. Talks about likelihood Shire takeover goes ahead.

Susan Kilsby, chairwoman of Shire, owns 6.4% of the company ($64 billion). Lovely job.

Those results may encourage another buyer. Watch this space

The current offer is worth - based on the value of Takeda on last nights close of yen 4510 = �29.60 (152.37 fx) x .839 = �24.83 + cash $30.33 = �21.73 (139.58 fx) = Total �46.56. Based on current share price �39.50 and less the cash element of �21.75 = �17.75 or yen 2704. So if you paid �39.50 for the Shire shares, the Takeda share price would have to fall a further 28.75% (4510 x 28.75% = yen 3213) x .839 = and that would put you at break even at �39.50. You would own shares equiv to 50% of a new larger company plus circa 45% of your cash back. I hope i have done that right. I think the market is being overly pessimistic. Those Takeda (ADRs) would recover over time.

The current offer is worth - based on the value of Takeda on last nights close of yen 4510 = �29.60 (152.37 fx) x .839 = �24.83 + cash $30.33 = �21.73 (139.58 fx) = Total �46.56. Based on current share price �39.50 and less the cash element of �21.75 = �17.75 or yen 2704. So if you paid �39.50 for the Shire shares, the Takeda share price would have to fall a further 28.75% (4510 x 28.75% = yen 3213) x .839 = and that would put you at break even at �39.50. You would own shares equiv to 50% of a new larger company plus circa 45% of your cash back. I hope i have done that right. I think the market is being overly pessimistic. Those Takeda (ADRs) would recover over time.

Why is this not trading much higher ?

nothing yet but would have to be a package worth more than �46.50 2 buyers. don't understand why shares not higher

ALLERGAN IS SAID IN TALKS TO ACQUIRE SHIRE, REUTERS SAYS

Shire has 'at least one or two other' interested bidders, CNBC says After Shire (SHPG) confirmed that it has received, and rejected, three conditional proposals from Takeda (TKPYY) regarding a possible offer for the company, CNBC's David Faber reported on air that his sources indicate that there are "at least one or two" other companies interested in bidding for Shire. Those others prefer to have a quiet dialogue with Shire, according to Faber.

*TAKEDA PHARM MADE A REVISED PROPOSAL, �28.75 OF NEW TAKEDA SHRS & *TAKEDA PHARM MADE A REVISED PROPOSAL, �17.75 IN CASH what would that mean?

TAKEDA SAYS SHIRE REJECTED GBP46.50/SHARE OFFER; TALKS ONGOING

*TAKEDA BID FOR SHIRE IS SAID TO BE IN CASH/STOCK, REUTERS SAYS

16% further upside from here if true. Bizarre

I get the feeling something is going on behind the scenes. There was a cluster purchase of shares by 2 directors back in August and again recently by the new chairman. Also the price action of this share is strange, especially on the open, as if it is being held back for some reason. Just a gut feel.

RSI 70, might get a small pull back (i hope) which would be ideal chance to buy more, with ex div 17 may (6p or 5% presently), turnaround story, skeleton cardboard appears empty and share has dropped 40% since December.