Member Info for TheClive

Able to buy on iWeb (same as Halifax) today. Negotiated order rather than quoted price I could take/leave but able to do as a limit order. Size/liquidity may be an issue if you want to load up in larger size, I have been doing clips of a few thousand shares.

I think most would agree there is value here, and in the event of peace in Ukraine this will probably at least double from here (circa £1.50). But I always like to look at what it would look like in worst case scenario to see what potential loss could be.
1. Russia seizes assets of 'foreign' companies - this is London listed, particularly if Abramovic starts making anti-Putin noises (to save his own skin) they may go after his assets in particular. So the Russian part of the operation is gone in this hypothetical.
2. Abramovic sanctioned and his assets overseas also seized - possibly as part of tit-for-tat response to 1. His 30% holding gets sold in a fire sale - sure it would be snapped up, but still would weigh down share price - massive increase in supply if nothing else.
3. Other parts of business in former USSR becomes unworkable because infrastructure is destroyed.

You are left with operations in US. SA, Czechia, Italy, Canada plus a cash pile that is presumably held mostly outside Russia. Some *very* back of envelope calculations for this put it over £2/shr and pessimistically at least £1/shr. So yes there will be noise and volatility, and of course if Putin pushes the big red button and starts WW3 all bets are off, but in even bad outcomes I see strong value here.

Picked up a few today, but I'm a small investor. Will look to add on further sell-offs - could easily see close to £1 before it goes ex-div so want to leave room to add. If we see a ceasefire this week, and price is below £3 I would also add more.

Good luck and all the usual disclaimers.

You either believe in the underlying investments or you don't. Most of the stakes in companies they hold have a chance to add several million to the market cap, but may take years to do so.
Currently there's 21mio shares, market cap (@71p) £15mio.
They own 4.72% of PDSB which is listed - @ yesterdays close $6.11 that's worth just over £6mio
They own 100% of Proaxsis which was valued at around £7mio just over a year ago, I mean given what's happened to biotech stocks maybe that's half now? But that still gives around £10mio value just from these two holdings.
Then you have Glycotest, Sagetech, EMV, Sofant, Martlet....
Obviously Glycotest announcing something positive from clinical trials is a possible catalyst for more interest in this stock, but £5mio for all the 'rest' seems exceptional value.

My guess is that some of the money that piled in on last year's spike or the capital raise @£1.30 is getting bored/impatient/looking to invest elsewhere. Obviously DYOR etc but anything sub £1 this seems like it is great value with very good upside, but I'm not expecting it to double in days or months, of course it would be nice...

I've added below £1 including yesterday around 74p and will add a bit more if we see 60-65p, but I'm a tiny shareholder in the grand scheme of things.

Thanks for confirming @Owl85.

It's very likely that employees have a blackout window and not allowed to sell for some period immediately before results are published - especially those at the top who would have some inside knowledge of how things are going before things are in the public domain. So those who might want realise a bit of cash after Christmas might not have been able to sell last week but today can do so, it may apply to only senior people, but in the firm I used to work for there was a blanket ban for all employees for a whole month before (each quarterly) results.

I wouldn't get too bullish... the PDSB share price was +3% at around $7.50 pre-open but after the open has actually gone lower on the day. One might expect if this is good news for PDSB then the SP would have gone up not down. Early days yet so all may change. I would add this is only a patent approval rather than e.g. great results from a clinical trial.

793,385 shares traded Friday - must have been a large block trade? I remember seeing several 10-13k share trades but nothing adding up to almost 800k shares.
Can someone with the data see if there are any 100k trades that went through and at what price?

The RNS has come today. Not sure what the implications of a ‘late’ RNS are, doesn’t reflect well on management but c’est la vie. Price still under pressure, someone still bailing out or knows something, guess former not latter but lack of new buyers to absorb this is still a problem for the immediate future.

PDSB is marginally up in pre-trading (+2%) have been a few sells probably someone stopping out of longs having broken previous lows around 93-95.

As we used to say on our trading desk when people asked why x had gone down: “more sellers than buyers”.

This is the kind of share that has a lot of slow burn opportunity stocks, but given there have been almost no positive announcements about any of the companies they hold, where do the new buyers come from? It's not high profile, also one of their largest holdings (on paper) is PDSB which is down 10% in a week and has halved since September.

Everyone who's invested probably sees this as undervalued, but a lack of new buyers is the problem.

I like a lot of the companies they have stakes in and see huge potential, and to be honest as a long term investor seeing the price go down is good in a way as you can buy more at a lower price. I added a little more this morning, but my average is still above 110. Have to be patient really, this kind of stock is a bit of a punt, might go up 20/50/100/200% but might not, if you want safe buy AZ, GSK etc etc. Best to keep some powder dry to add on dips, and don't stress if you believe in the company overall.

Good luck and DYOR.

It's hard to know. I have a few (mostly small) investments where the assets vs valuation clearly don't seem to be in line, patience is the key thing here. For TGA: cash makes up huge %age of market cap valuing the mining business and stock of coal in the ground and a pittance so even with average coal px 20-30% lower than current, I think £7-8 is reasonable medium term valuation *before* they start paying out dividends. Once they start paying out large dividends (which even at 50-100p are sustainable), a few more people will get on board (income hunters) and we could see £10-15 - but this will be well into 2022.

ESG mentality clearly a drag on this, certainly from big funds that are trying to greenwash.

But for many other things, it's just a waiting game, you and others can see the value, but not enough investors to get the SP sky high. TBH I don't mind this scenario, as long as you've done your own DD/research I'm happy for a company with a good pipeline of assets/profits to trundle along out of the spotlight, paying out dividends as an when, and/or share buy backs.

I'm a med/long term investor, I don't really care if SP languishes between £3-4. Sure a spike in price to £5 6 7 might make me feel that I was right, but if it stays low I can buy more at cheaper levels. I'm only annoyed that as I put bids in on the way down I just missed the lows (I had bid at 281, so missed by a few pence) and the lowest I bought was 314.

Compound - I read this bit as meaning:
NCP have been loss making (investment and marketing costs) and these losses have been a drag on overall profitability.
As the losses are getting smaller, the overall company profits will start growing again (when losses in NCP were higher, overall profits were falling).
So really it's saying the losses in NCP are now small enough (and getting smaller) such that the overall company profit will start growing again.
And at some stage they will become profitable in their own right.

It's complex/nuanced - I would agree that in the very short term it's pure supply and demand (eg coal for delivery any time in next 3 months) but phasing down/phasing out of coal can mean lots of different things for the long term supply-demand dynamics.

If you have a finite amount of time to sell coal, you will want to be mining the last bit of easy to mine coal right at the end of that time horizon. Shortening the time horizon may mean mines with plenty of coal in the ground increase mining now to time it right = more supply say 3-12months from now (and beyond) but a short time horizon may also mean a new mine isn't economic to open, so there is now a finite amount of coal able to be mined easily, if demand increases then there simply may not be enough to go around before time's up, so prices go up. A longer time horizon may mean more demand for longer, but may make new mines economic increasing supply between 12-36 months. Users will often lock in contracts for 6-12 months in the future also, some equally will not.

She (Vanessa Colomar) is on the board, seed investor in many companies, imagine another one unloading some shares after lock up. See the RNS out middle of this morning, she sold 1.43mio shares, of which the bulk was around 6.40 so would imagine this was done yesterday.

I think we may see a few more people in similar situation unloading some shares in coming weeks on spikes. For me I love this for the medium term, but short term (until Christmas) I think upside is limited, and if they do lose their FTSE100 status it's a small negative.

Long term these are great levels to pick up on the cheap, but 1. I'd be cautious and pick your levels, 2. don't expect a move back to 750/800p soon. Of course company specific news out could change everything, but that has potential to be bad as well as good, so I won't make judgements on this for now.

Good luck all.

Initial reading of the results is strong for the core business but weak for the ‘general merchandise’ section = Argos etc.

Hence fall in share price.

I think all the talk of takeovers needs a massive pinch of salt, but if you’re into that sort of thing the good results from supermarket side make it slightly more likely, as does the lower sp. For me overall profitability is good as it will keep on paying ~3.5-4% dividend and as a going concern it’s good if not spectacular.

FWIW I own both SBRY and TSCO, prefer the latter at these valuations but both sound businesses. I do like what SBRY CEO is doing though which is why I’m invested here. Good luck and DYOR.

I find it helps to think about it from the other side's perspective. If you are worker there with a few k shares, or seed-funder there with a few mio, or MS who has bigger issues to think about than the day to day DARK share price.

They have seen their holding go up 2-4x in a few months, many will have been on lower pay with equity stake to compensate and have bills/house deposits they want to pay, there will be people for whom investments in DARK make up >50% of their investible capital, there will be people who have divorced and they have to liquidate what they can rather than sell the illiquid stuff, there will be seed funds that from here will be looking at divesting 50% of what they hold to invest in another 10 companies any of which could be the next DARK.

All perfectly rational reasons to sell at 600+ tomorrow, regardless of where it may go in 1-2yrs. If when it IPO'd you gave these people a choice of being able to sell @650 having missed out on 950 or not having such a rollercoaster ride but sp was only 450 when lock up ended, they would all prefer 650 and the what-if as they are still richer for it.

But also given sp moves there will be those who think I'm not gonna sell here, but will leave sell orders 750-1000 which in turn will slow any potential move higher - maybe making sp less volatile is a good thing? Equally some may be seeing the potential number of sellers and want to get out first.

Final Q/point is how much has already been shorted by hedge funds ahead of this, if they have shorted more than ends up getting sold, then net effect of this selling won't move sp down, simply more buyers than sellers.

I've seen a lot of well heralded events that come to pass, and I used to trade by the mantra of "buy the rumour, sell the fact" often the nose pre-empting something is more than the actuality.

Gonna be a bumpy rest on 2021 for this share but long term I think this level is a steal.

Would say COP26 starting this weekend may push out some negative coal headlines - although without Xi there any announcement without Chinese buy in is pretty meaningless. FWIW am long some TGA myself, but given potential for headlines over next week more cautious than at other times and will look to add into dips over the next week should they come. If they don't then would think the 'bad news potential' has disappeared and we push on back to 450-500 as winter bites.

The recent drop in price (after some frankly epic gains over the previous few months) are just a function of volatility in the stock.

Yes the company fundamentals still look good (cash balances and cash flow generation) but given the issues with Transnet and the reliance on rail to get the product to market, the recent news has made things less rosy. Sure a company in good shape can weather these storms, but if you like the fundamentals and think a company will do well in the long term, a move lower in price is *good* because you can buy it at a cheaper price.

If you are trading it or leveraged then it might be bad, but most medium to long term investors should be happy not sad that the price has dipped back to what would be the all time highs of 3 months previous.

I saw some comments comparing the move down in TGA vs other stocks without qualifying it with how much they had gone up previously. It's natural for best in class stock (TGA??) to outperform its peers when the underlying asset (coal) goes up, but therefore when the underlying asset goes down it will retrace similarly and do worse if you compare the down move to peers. You can only compare like for like if you look at longer term performance and on most metrics TGA stock has done better than its peers so forget looking at the last week, I don't care, I *do* care about performance over the last 3-6 months. That's investing rather than trading.

For me, the headwinds (political, logistical) could put the value to the £2-3 range, but if resolved could be £5-10 range in 12 months from now. Could be somewhere in between. I have really small exposure but it's a volatile stock so frankly wouldn't put more than 1% net worth into it, but on a 30-40% equity allocation that can still be a good chunk of your portfolio.

All IMHO and I like the stock but DYOR etc.