Member Info for TheClive

This move seems to be more about what's going on in South Africa and the Rand. The rolling power cuts are hitting hard on growth and the Zar hit a new all time low against the USD this morning and has lost over 5% this week.

Having said that the currency is less of an issue because Coal is priced and sold in Usd, but the power cuts are of course much more problematic and general demise of the country is not bullish long term.

I think this helps explain the recent malaise and the Currency is a good way to use as a gauge of how the rest of the world sees South Africa's problems are developing.

Happy with this, but I guess I got in at around 60p and have had 2 rounds of dividends so am up over 40%.

I think realistically, although some long term holders may have been hoping to hold on, the reality was the price was between 50-65p for over 6 months, so the 80p offer (+1.425p dividend) is still a 25% premium to the recent highs, which is two years+ of dividends if you'd held out. Just reinvest elsewhere and take the money.

I just think too many people jumped on it when it was £13-18 on the way up and even though they should have got £3.50 (net) per share in divs since then, the mild winter in Europe and fall to sub £10 is still a nasty loss and are just stopping out. The fact it peaked before the big Dividend last year, people are looking at the halving on coal price since then and just adjusting expectations down.

I like it when profitable companies go down, even if I own shares already, buy more, it's like they're on sale.

I just chose to reinvest divs here - obviously not been paid yet but seems good level.
It's out of vogue and chart looks horrible, but fundamentals = cash in bank and cash generation going forwards make this a bit of a steal here with China re-opening up etc. IMHO. Still well in the money since I've been invested since it was £3-4 and sold out on way up, bought back on way down. Like catching a falling knife it's painful right now but if it turns will be a lot of people chasing it back higher.

I'm looking at a 6-12month return to a price around £10-12 and ongoing annual (gross) dividend around £3-5.

The dividend yield is approx 4%
The Bank of England base rate is 4.25%
The nearest Tesco bond I can find (2029 maturity) has a running yield of 5.6% which is indicative of level they can borrow in market.

I think it's pretty clear that the dividend yield is lower than the yield they would pay to borrow money.

I still like TSCO but have reduced my holding by around 25% yesterday above 270 and will sell more in the 290-300 zone (prob another 25%). These are ones I added 200-225 though so really just trading a bit with a core long holding.

That's correct buy on or before 22nd to receive dividend, 23rd goes ex-div.
Dividend is approximately 58p per share.

Can't help thinking that CGT management ahead of the end of tax year may be going on. Some retail have been holding since sub £6, and want to take advantage of the CGT allowance this year that's falling a lot next year it makes sense. Mine is all in ISA so I'm not making that calculation but can imagine I would be if I held in GIA.

Either way I'm also minded that this just gives longer term investors a great opportunity.

I use iWeb for my ISA which is owned/run by Halifax. I get full Dividend with no WHT in my ISA with them.
Would be surprised if Halifax was different as effectively the same company.

This just puts a floor under the share price.
If you read the two RNS' the Share Buyback one says 35mio shares with max amount £75mio - which is 214.28p per share. Of course they could buy fewer shares with the £75mio but this is a 'stop the rot' move rather than a signal the SP is 'going to the moon'. The EBT Market Purchase says 10mio shares and max amount £25mio whish gives them a slightly higher 250p average price. Also cancelling shares and taking them out of people's hands will allow them to not lend them to shorters which makes the borrow cost more expensive.

If we go back above the IPO price these buybacks will not have much market impact, but in short term gives them some ammo to stop it falling like a knife further. To some extent these give the share price a sort of optionality to it, limited downside and uncapped upside, but more importantly the situation for short positions is reversed, they now have limited upside, and unlimited downside.

Yes it feels like many investors feel the same, hence the slow grind lower in price as people get bored/tired of waiting and sell out.

There is a real lack of a wider pool of investors who want to get involved, everyone who reads this board will have all looked into the portfolio of companies and seen something they like, and see real value (probably way above the current share price) but you need new eyes, new investors, new money to come and see the same and buy it. It's just not on people's radar at all at the moment.

The big move in PDSB shined a bit of a light on this stock, but if the market priced a value of the rest of the entire portfolio of NSCI companies of only a few £million at that point, it also says a lot about the (lack of) appetite to invest in this company. Growth stocks are not in favour right now, this will not always be the case. I feel to see some semblance of fair value you will need to wait 12+ months. I'd love to see a liquidity event or some real buzz in one of the companies, but if they did sell a chunk of something the money wouldn't be distributed, it would be reinvested in something else - but ask yourself would you want it any other way?

Again today PDSB is above $9 / share = £10.2mio value for NSCI. Yet the share price can't seem to get above 65-70p.

Theory: placement on 22nd June was at 67p, hung around there for 2 months then went below 50p and now recovering again. Can't help but think some of those who bought in the placement and were underwhelmed at the subsequent performance are just happy to get out where they bought which is why there is so much selling here.

At the lows on NSCI (42.5p) = mkt cap £10mio, PDSB was around $3/shr so made up £3.4mio of NSCI mkt cap. Since then stake in PDSB has increased in value by £6.8mio to £10.2mio, and NSCI (using a 70p price now) has increased to just £16.3mio so only by £6.3mio.

So even if at the lowest ebb of NSCI, the rest of the portfolio is unchanged in value, we should be at least 72p. Let's see what happens once the selling at this level is exhausted, but fundamentally the main problem is that not enough people know about this share and are interested in even looking at the value here.

Well some nice results out of PDSB today, share price +25% to $7 in pre-market trading.
NSCI own (I think) 4.7% of PDSB which equates to about £8mio if it stays at $7/share.
[PDSB float is 28.46m shares x $7 *4.7% / FX rate of 1.18]
This is over 60% of NSCI's market cap at Friday's close, or 50% of NSCI's market cap at 70p where it has traded today.

Maybe the rocket needed to make people take notice? Would be nice to see this back to £1

Mainly this is seen as a defensive stock. Solid Cash flow and profits, but not a growth company (well slow predictable growth).
As interest rates go down then companies that need to borrow to grow and have potential to double or more in price become more likely to succeed, business models that aren't creating cashflow and need to pay down debt are risky, but lower rates help. Lower than expected CPI in US yesterday means people now think 0.5% rate hike in Dec is most likely from FED vs 0.75% before the CPI data.
We used to just say Risk-on vs Risk-off, we'd been in Risk-off mode for a few weeks, and suddenly flipped yesterday, Nasdaq a good barometer of that.
The FX rate does make a bit of a difference too, much of IMB revenues overseas/in $$ so in ££ terms the overseas income is less if the $$ falls vs the ££.

I got into these shares at last year's COP26, thinking there would be a lot of talk about weaning the west off coal but India and China wouldn't sign up, but it would create a good buying opportunity for the stock which had really positive cashflow and fundamentals. At the time I thought the stock was trading £3-4 and although I sold some out for a quick profit (way below £10) I still hold a core position.

I'm thinking this year may play out similarly, and I have sold around 25% out at £16-18 (pre-dividend) and will look to rebuy and increase holding in the £10-12 zone. I still love the fundamentals of this stock and will hold a core long position, with an end to Ukraine/Russia situation the main risk for this stock price, but I hold other investments which will benefit in that scenario, and it's one I would of course welcome!

Basically I anticipate some potentially negative coal headlines to be generated in the next few weeks, which may give rise to great buying opportunities before the coldest parts of winter, which may again provide some good levels to sell for a quick profit for those who like to 'trade' their stocks or try to time the market.

If they are buying the shares on JSE, you will most likely be paying 1-3% FX costs vs mid market every time you buy or sell the shares. More fees for the broker, less profit for you.
You should definitely insist on GBP denominated shares listed on LSE, more protection for you if you are UK based also.

In short if you made a bid for whole of ITV right now you'd be paying at least 85p per share, board probably wouldn't sell for less than £1 a share. So you're looking at 3.4bn-4bn for whole.

Interest Rates PE paying in today's leveraged buyout market make this sort of thing less favourable. ITV probably would sell studios for 2.5bn which would arguably still value 'whole' of ITV at £1+. Best outcome is they sell 20-30% of it for a valuation like 2.5bn which would boost the share price of 'whole' of ITV as highlights value of just one of their assets.

Re: Family silver - there's three things ITV has that are assets IMHO.
1. Back Catalogue - for streamers like Netflix/Amazon this is valuable.
2. ITV Studios
3. Brand and the fact they have viewing figure advantage vs most 'new' channels, for those demographics that watch broadcast TV at least (which is still a lot).
So whilst they might sell a portion of ITV Studios, if they get an offer for 2.5-3bn for whole lot (=roughly ITVs market cap now) they could sell and give shareholders cash == current share price + holdings of the other assets. More likely they sell 20-50% depending on price but that shows value of ITV as a whole as well as generating a whole load of cash which is positive for share price.

The problem is, that this is a stable income stream company and assets are valued based on their income stream. Yield is 6.85p per year, so in a world where govt bonds get you 1% return then a 6.85p per year can easily justify 3% yield given the safety of the assets/long term basis of the incomes and also this is worth having. This equates to a price in the region of £2-2.50.

Fast forward to now and gilts are yielding 4.5-5% so this is clearly more risky and less liquid than gilts, so should reflect this with a higher yield, so call it 5.5% to own BBOX so that 6.85p equates to a price of £1.25. Or rather why would you buy this at £2 per share yielding 3.4% when you could buy gilts yielding 4.5%. Price has to adjust down to reflect this and unfortunately this and other REITs will be hit as yields go up.

This does mean if gilt yields go down the price of BBOX should go back up.

There's some reasons. They have a pipeline of new builds, most already pre-let, but not 100%.
Costs for building will have gone up, as it's very energy intensive (eg concrete) and any un-let might need to adjust rental down. Existing stock that's let out, well medium term one might expect rental yields to fall on renegotiation, also any debt being rolled over becomes more expensive.

All of these things on the margin make this less profitable and likely to cut dividend stream.

BUT then trend in online retail and demand for these sort of spaces is still going up, and people are forecasting interest rates to fall again in 2024 and the share price has sold off some 35-40% from the levels earlier this year. For much of 2018-20 we were around the £1.50 level, so I have started to accumulate today and medium term anything below £1.80 is good value for me, but given the overall weakness of the market I can see a possibility of 1.30-1.40 at some point so keeping some powder dry to use at more opportunistic levels.

NSCI's holding is 25.7% of Sofant.
This includes direct investment and clients of EMV capital (I think*), so some of this is not direct investment but would reflect control. I don't know the breakdown of this 25.7% though, but at a guess I would say they own at least 15-20% directly. Ilian Iliev is also on the board of Sofant.