Member Info for thechief1

Ive sent a few messages to IR - nothing of note back tbh but in case interested reply below on the back of me suggesting some RNS even if to explain where they were:

"Thank you for your understanding and your good suggestion. Ideally the aim is to get all the information out together rather than provide information piecemeal. Please be assured the team and its advisors are working very hard to get everything resolved as soon as possible.

Thank you for your ongoing patience,

With best wishes,

Skinbio IR team"

I do think given the indication on april 29th the report was incoming in days that even an update to the market saying report has been received etc. and a broad strokes remediation timeline (which one would assume exists by now) would be appreciated - along with cash balance

Theyve launched prebiotic cola in the USA which is interesting but looks like that big fish might not land for Opti

Great news! Glad we ignored that IC lad telling us to sell...

Feels like a nothing burger at this stage....

Few takeaways from me:

1) Beauty actives doing well - peptides leading the charge

2) Bid seems unlikely unless realllly pushed - they're trying to simplify, don't want to be spending cash if not required etc - plus margins already good even with royalty baked in it seems

3) https://www.croda.com/mediaassets/files/corporate/full-year-2025/croda-fy25-results-presentation-and-financial-framework-to-2028-final.pdf?la=en-GB&hash=32B8AA6FFB4110F2BF82A5AD591847E7

Am I being silly or all the products that show when I google Lactobacillus Ferment Lysate likely the pre clients / early uptakers?

Belgrano lets also not forget now the warrants that were dished out during the awful acquisition financing are now "in the money" so to speak........so imagine they would also at some point dump their holding or forward sell before execution

It might be undervalued but razor is the concern tbh. The founder [know personally] is pretty unscrupulous with a history of poor business practices and now a lot of VSL depends on the equity there. Looks like they've had help in etc. so maybe too big to fail at this point but the over inflation of value is problematic here - they shouldn't have converted to equity so my assumption is that they were strongarmed into doing that or facing zero

One additional thought to add to my earlier post (also below) is that although the sell off strategic review etc/ could be great for shareholders if done properly - i do hope it wasn't part of a backroom agreement for the financing and they're therefore under pressure to sell...hope im wrong but it is a potential consideration (even if its true btw doesnt mean bad for shareholders could still be good but worth a consideration)

--------------------

Pros:

- cheaper debt and lending commitments

- Lyttle gone - honestly he should've gone a long time ago

- Open to Selling parts of the biz

- Better H2 forecast...

Cons:

-Pretty poor numbers , less growth and higher return rates

- No comments on cashflow but to me judging by the debt facilities etc probably not great and adjusted ebita v low so cashflow likely terrible

Overall - not sure

1)how much of the bad numbers was already priced in/expected

2) successful sell off of some units indeed may help some unlock some value

3) New leadership could help drive success

Not sure I'd be buying but also certainly not selling

As a v underwater holder my genuine opinion on an RNS really that has little detail and pads out some poor numbers

Pros:

- cheaper debt and lending commitments

- Lyttle gone - honestly he should've gone a long time ago

- Open to Selling parts of the biz

- Better H2 forecast...

Cons:

-Pretty poor numbers , less growth and higher return rates

- No comments on cashflow but to me judging by the debt facilities etc probably not great and adjusted ebita v low so cashflow likely terrible

Overall - not sure

1)how much of the bad numbers was already priced in/expected

2) successful sell off of some units indeed may help some unlock some value

3) New leadership could help drive success

Not sure I'd be buying but also certainly not selling

About 50m if all is done soon - see below

The total investment into the case to date is A$16.6 million (US$11.3 million). This investment comprises A$4.2 million (US$2.8 million) from LCM's own balance sheet and A$12.4 million (US$8.5 million) of third party capital from Fund I. In line with our usual practice LCM's returns are calculated as a rising multiple of invested capital over time.

This investment is no longer attended with liability and quantum risk as that has been decided. Final performance will be announced to the market after conclusion of the investment. However, if the award is satisfied within a reasonable period without the need for enforcement, then based upon the contractual terms with the funded party as at the date of this announcement, LCM would be entitled to a multiple of 6 times its own invested capital plus significant performance fees on third party capital invested.

Some good stats here https://arbitrationblog.kluwerarbitration.com/2021/09/08/2020-statistics-of-polish-post-award-case-law-is-poland-arbitration-friendly/

Typically in litigation funding expect to give away 30-40% of any award... assuming even 50% means a double of the market cap (depending on what probability*amount of this was "priced in" but feels like it can't have been huge unless the business is really worth nothing)

less clear on poland procrastination etc. but from reading the RNS sounds like they will have to cough up and not doing so would be extremely difficult ...timelines though i dont know - are there any reference cases?

They mentioned a bunch of restructuring etc. - is there a way to see this in the reports? e.g. I think they turned a bunch of the razor loans into equity so less divi and potentially no value (or alternatively massive value if it recovers) - how to unpack that? Trying to estimate future divis from interest payments

Same old tune here sadly for a long term holder

- Manprit - waste of money and fundamentally useless - money sink

- Ashman - Still a ? - not super thrilled with him tbh but don't doubt he has some value despite the numerous and frequent mis steps - patience running thin for a man who continues to take loads of cash and simultaneously has destroyed shareholder value by bloating unnecessary expenses and although I'm not one to often agree with TW - I agree the man is not fit to run a public company - where I differ is thinking he should focus on his skill set and maybe get some useful help in rather than the waste of overpaid tosh that is Manprit

- Croda still we wait ....

- Awful convertible financing still a drag although after hours trade today might be a chunk of that reducing further...

sighhhh - i really do hope this comes good but it really will have been all testament to product despite poor management

Bunch of 50k blocks looks like acorn selling out more

If by news you mean more conversion notices then possibly :) .... Im holding here but just zero faith in Manpr*ck and stuart has sector knowledge/expertise but incredibly poor CEO in many regards - I'd rather he surround himself with stronger advisors/people with better corp experience than Manpr*ck (and believe me they can be hired at the same or likely lower cost)

Will write a detailed post but again testament to the incompetence and waste of money of the overpaid, unnecessary Manpr*ck .......

You guys should all tweet musk - he's the kind of guy who might on a whim respond to such things *shrug"