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Looks like the sell down is back in full flow from the cln

How manprick could spend all that time on the retention etc numbers on a subscriber base of less than 550 is laugable- how can the guy do that with a straight face

Just watched the presentation - not bad and some potential good but one thing is still clear to me - MANPRIT IS A GIANT WASTE OF MONEY and despite how hyped up he was he came across to me pretty awfully

Ok - so here's how i read the results and thoughts (im a holder btw) so interested to exchange views

- Croda -> i actually read this as a delay that the things expected to conclude in Q1 24 are pushed to early summer so lets say July - the subsequently ("immediately followed") commercialisation "process" -> Thoughts: I don't read this as revenue (or material rev) in 24 - if that's different would be great to clarify on the call later

-> Axis D2C - total joke numbers but personally ive never had nor priced in this D2C rubbish from this team - not where i want them to focus

-> Pay cut 20% - "backdated to jan " - in reality this is not enough nor changes much - id have liked to have seen something bigger and more skin in the game

--- so based on the above, it "feels" like more "jam tomorrow" - in the mean time headwinds of the cr*p financing deal, continued selling- no catalyst till Croda and until then we bleed money just with 20% slightly less for these 2...

Overall : ok... nothing great nothing horrendous

not trying to be negative btw just how i read/see it -> love to debate/discuss/clarify and hope it can be better explaine din the call

Yeah yesterdays sells don't seem to suggest CLG are abiding by any agreement- more ashman+manprit idiocy but he's still happy to take more cash and not buy stock ....... beggars belief

I still say keep ashman but switch 30-50% to stock based comp

Remove manprit - waste of cash

controller - no idea but seems unnecessary

I mean I think TW have pros and cons as does Elrico - both, however, I respect for doing what they think is right and trying to do the best job for their readers -> I tend to read both and can agree or disagree but respect always.

However as a shareholder I must say I do land regarding Manprit on he side of - yes he's an overpaid, incompetent muppet with zero clue. I say this knowing a lot of start up CFOs etc. through various bit of work. Although Ashman has been the blunderer divine in my opinion - he may have value add and specialist expertise that eventually pays off (even though I think his salary stinks and he should have more stock comp and should have more skin in the game - during my start up days I'd go for a tiny salary and as much equity as possible ). Manprit is undefendable - he is unimpressive, overpaid, easily replaceable - the only reason I can think of him even being there is he used to work with ashman at onbone historically and that is really a cr*p reason for ashman to agree to pay his extortionate salary

Manprit has to go IMO or lower comp to something palletable

Sigh, not one to usually go on rants like this but for all the faults of TW - he is right about exec pay here. I did a deep dive on Manprit - absolute joke what he's getting paid for the value add and expertise. Ashman I can't really comment on value but seems like he's currently way overpaid for performance. Biggest concern for me is why these guys are draining the company of cash and given their giant pay packets why they hold so little equity (ashman has some options on the cheap sure...but still....). Frankly these guys should've either been taking deferred comp, higher incentive based comp or stock based comp with strike prices appropriately distributed........ almost 600k on these two is insanity....manprit particularly given his frankly easily replacable skill set+they're not even in london so cost of living is low (again ashman as ceo there can be an argument made)...... for context..... top "fixed" pay in london for a range of jobs doesn't meet ashman and is close to manprit (though the people are far more talented...)

Seen a few chunk sales today? is opti selling down more do you think?

Interesting you thought the presentation was excellent as I thought it was "ok" and we're both LTHs I think so interesting to discuss! Also none of my Qs got picked :p

Things I liked

- bit more detail on acquisition

- croda potential clearly still there

- the promise of meets every 2 months

- the multiple pillars make sense

Things I didn't:

- wasn't sure on SAs "attempt to be positive" felt a bit more defensive and manprit frankly was awful

- re: axis - no comments on what churn rate is, defined etc. -> these guys just have no clue on D2C marketing etc (not that i need them to tbh! but just stay away from it)

- a lot of it felt re hashed -> same potential, not so much execution/movement just a "hang in tight" mentality while they still continue to take huge cash salaries and not have more stock price incentives

- his comment about being delighted if SP gets to 20p etc. - i mean a lot of us are are in for more than that and just 2months ago we hit 29p so...

- Both of their "buy and build " comments and "expertise" -> its really not that impressive

----> i am tempted to add few more on croda alone as i see it bouncing with news but honestly I was neither super positive or negative from that , i still have issues with SA and Manprit but positivity on the company ...

Warrants are dilutive....

Warrants are dilutive for shareholders as company issues new equity...in this case they've commited to 30% per tranche so £1.5M of warrants .. e..g "The number of warrants to be issued under the first tranche is 2,349,244 shares with an exercise price of £0.204321 per share."... so its about 469848 quid at 20p..... they'll only get executed if price goes above 20p but kinda means if we get upside there will be immediate dilution as warrants will get executed...

e.g. say there were 1000 shares in issue at 20p with company A holding 100 warrants at a strike of 25p....then the share price goes up to 50p so market cap is 50px1000 or 500 quid... then company will execute warrants - pay in 100 x 25p (and then likely sell or forward sell before execution is more likely to lock in price)... and then essentially you have 500 quid + the 25 quid (25p x 100 warrants) = 525/1100 so each share that was worth 50p is now 47.7p

make sense?

- all this is making ma (LTH) a bit uneasy

- the warrants given are chunky - too chunky IMO

- is something amiss that he's smoke and mirrors with the acq strategy?

- fundamentally the company acquired looks OK but would need to understand the real synergy more

- I have faith in the company and value prop...just not in ashman (who again owns way too little stock)

hopefully tomorrow call will tell us more

As someone who was at one point CX level at a start up doing more rev that SBTX - have worked a lot with "influencers" strategy engagment rates etc.... it all depends on a lot of things including objecive of the campaign and where you are in the purchase funnel (can discuss offline - maybe a few of us SBTX-ers have a few beers haha) ... e.g. lots of followed influencers - high awareness, limited engagement etc ... as you move closer to the purchase decision different factors come into play (e..g here you may want multiple smaller higher engagement/higher influence on purchase decision type people etc etc.)... many many different ways to run these campaigns - probs too much to debate in depth on a post here

Been a long term holder, almost reduced exposure at breakeven at the 29p rise and wish I had obviously.

Frankly I have lost complete faith in Ashman - without simply calling him a "clown" or a "joke" there's a number of things that just have got to me:

1) The Axisbiotix D2C idea/comments - "alarming rate", frankly poor strategy and understanding of D2C dynamics - felt like amateur hour and underfunded at that

2) The rhetoric on various topics from M&A to Croda has been inconsistent, untrue and uninformed

3) Why is he even looking at this M&A strategy currently? he is not Valeant nor does he have the experience for it

4) Why does this guy have less stock in the company than most of us ordinary shareholders?? Having done start ups before I used to take close to no cash for options - why because of incentives , belief in company etc. and of course lower the BURN!!! Does he not believe in his own company?

5) Something smells off - is this M&A etc. smoke because something else is going owry? Also why is O Hara also now publicly speaking against Ashman?

Overall I still think the company has great prospects (from my understanding) but my confidence feels severely hit with Ashman - he maybe did well is getting us here but we need a) more experience now and b) Someone with more "skin in the game"

The way this is worded (to me ) sounds like if they want to assess extra benefits for a higher price point then there is zero chance of revenue this year and we're talking now more like H2 2024 at best - or am i reading this wrong?

Anyone know when any kind of general trading update is due?!

Was mulling over a toe dip thought I'd wait for results.... obvz missed the apollo uplift but a question that remains -can someone decipher the true EBITDA figures? I missed the webcast and went through presentation and the "adjustments" to get to adjusted EBITDA are not so clear to me....

1) so 32 mill strategic review? guessing this is overpriced consultants? would be good to see breakdown

2) Final mile Asia delivery - is this 18.5 what they expect to come down this year as costs normalise? given there's an item for it last year Im not sure you can keep stripping that out?

3) Acquisition related costs? - but this isn'y actual acquisitions or is it? or is it more like post merger integration costs etc.?

4) Reason for the large impairment goodwill charge this year? what does it relate to exactly? Looks all non cash but still would be good to know

5) Restructuring corporate structure?

Did the web cast give any colour here? Just trying to get a true sense of what's going on and true margins/cash for the next years.... it's interesting that's for sure!

Completely agree Elrico - I did try to caveat that the linear progression isn't realistic as you'd expect it to grow exponentially in most scenarios

But if they talking monthly then the churn "calculation" would be correct

I also completely agree this is only one small portion on the business and one by their own admission they didn't even expect to be doing initially so given that I'm also comfortable holding onto the position here - I see more value in the B2B side personally given the current team but as you rightly say the picture can always change :)

Yes I think that's fair Toyin, like I hinted at if I could see numbers for "churn for people it works for" that'd be super interesting and my guess is actually much higher... then it'd be fair to look at that number and assuming acquisition becomes more streamlined/better a very different picture could be painted

So what I'd hope for based on what you've outlined would be something that looks like:

Month 0 - say 1000 clients acquired
Month 1-2 - say 300-400 drop offs because it doesn't work for them
Month 3 onwards - churn in the low single digits for people who it had a good result for

If that's the case I'd love the company to break that out and basically it not a leaky bucket it's just making sure we fill the right bucket!

as i say i like the stock - would love to have a proper chat with management about this stuff particularly D2C and also understanding how they're doing their own internal numbers (although for that I might have to own a large multiple more than what I do for them to listen hahaha)

where my calculation falls down a little is that in reality you'd expect to continuously be growing acquisitions but that tends to be the paid marketing,->more money, ->more paid marketing->more money->more paid marketing cycle so you grow volumes so high and hopefully churn stabilises - but i don't think this is the approach they're going for

but as i said in previous post, probably more granular view on this from the company would help