Member Info for the_shareminator

I haven't witnessed any incompetence from management, only opportunistic actions led by the unions. Strikes in the mining industry have been commonplace across Africa for years and Mali is no different. Unions called for two strikes in April and December of 2018 at the former Randgold mines, now operated by Barrick. Happened previously in 2016 too. AngloAshanti's formerly owned Sadiola and Yatela mines were affected by strikes back in 2014.

I remember back in 2011 when gold prices reached new highs, unions ordered their members to go on strike. In South Africa more than 100,000 miners went on strike in early autumn.

I'm not sure why the Union is demanding certain Syama workers be reinstated when they are on full pay already but if this is primarily related to the Covid measures taken, then I fail to see how anyone on here can label the management as incompetent. I would hazard a guess all the major producers in Mali are following similar measures to restrict the spread of Covid.

"Resolute has implemented a comprehensive, company-wide response to the coronavirus pandemic. This response prioritises the health, safety and well-being of Resolute employees, contractors and stakeholders while recognising our responsibility to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on all aspects of our operations. At Syama, a decision has been made to limit the travel of non-essential workers from outside the surrounding region to the mine site. This decision was made to limit the risk of transmission of the virus between separate regional populations and to maintain Syama's isolation from the virus. Protocols are in place at Syama to ensure appropriate social distancing, hygiene, and isolation. Resolute remains committed to prioritising workforce safety."

With regards the operational guidance being withdrawn, this is simply the company taking a firm response. Note the use of 'consequential actions' in relation to the strike. This suggests the strike will not be resolved within 10 days and disruptions will likely affect output. The shock value obviously didn't help the share price however it should help to reinforce the company's stance on the current strike negotiations.

Quite a sensationalist headline. I would hardly call the tit for tat fighting along it's border as war. Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in a perpetual state of 'conflict' for more than two decades. It would be like saying India and China are at war following the recent border skirmishes.

At the time this was happening and thereafter our share price actually climbed from 130p range to 170p briefly in tandem with the rising gold price. That is not to say the negative sentiment caused by this conflict isn't weighing on the share price in recent weeks but I think investors shouldn't be too concerned given what we know at this stage.

"Developing mines in SA remains a challenge: we have recently seen a top tier platinum company decline to further develop the Waterberg project, explicitly referencing COVID19 and the uncertainty around prices for their decision."

Reference here is to Impala (Implats) who announced delays to the R12bn spend on a new mine (Waterberg) back in June.

“The sun is definitely starting to set over some of the conventional, deep, high-grade, western limb areas,” said Johan Theron, a spokesman for Impala Platinum. “It’s exactly like gold: there is more gold, but it’s deeper and requires more capex and prospects of making a return are slim,” he said.

This article also decribes how Anglo American Platinum delayed a decision until the second half of 2021 on whether to spend as much as $1.5bn expanding output at its Mogalakwena mine.

This all feeds into the bigger picture that PGM supply in relation to demand will tighten in the years ahead.

https://www.miningmx.com/news/platinum/43139-sun-setting-over-large-platinum-mines-of-western-bushveld-as-project-capital-dries-up/

Very pleased with the overriding message put out in the report;

"It is very clear for me that shareholders have a multitude of opinions about dividends, some better informed than others... Your Board is cognisant of the commentary but will not be overly swayed to change from its current thought processes. This is not a Gin & Tonic Board; it does exercise its collective mind!"

I think this is the first time I've witnessed such a thorough assessment by a BoD of it's shareholder's messages on a public forum. The responses were informative and helped provide a deeper understanding of the decisions being made, not just in relation to dividends.

Maybe I missed it but I was surprised there was no mention of the poor performance of the big players. Sibanye (the world's largest primary producer of platinum and rhodium) reported it's rhodium production fell by 49% q-o-q.

Yes someone on the SLP board mentioned a similar point, most precious metal miners release third quarter results in October.

The one major difference you're failing to mention is that Rhodium prices have not traded anywhere near this level in the past 5 years. Prices were moving up to around $5,000 this time last year and prior to that were well below $2500 in the autumn of 2018. Palladium has also traded significantly lower up until last autumn. Again not sure if you were here but last year Q2 and Q3 were particularly poor for us and as such we were marked down for those failings. Cash position since then has increased by 170% from $21m to $56m at the end of Q4. Plenty of other reason to buy now, in particular the risk owing to Covid is diminishing with new cases falling.

I have been fortunate to load up over the past couple of months too.

Not many will be aware net debt has fallen by approx 30% ($25m) since 31 December 2019 from $80.2 million despite issues with production owing to Covid and the lower prices received during much of the first half of the year. Now production is expected to be at or near full capacity, commodity prices (copper, zinc, silver) all continuing to strengthen we may well move into a net cash position before the end of Q121.

https://www.investing.com/analysis/the-dollar-may-be-about-to-make-a-big-push-higher-200536400

I would argue the Dollar's strength is not linked to gold. Gold pricing is affected by Dollar movements but it is not dictated by this alone. The USD could well outperform the Euro from here but in the context of mass unemployment, rates at near 0 for the foreseeable future and stimulus being pumped into every major economy, inflation is eating away at all fiat currencies.

Stores of value like gold, silver, platinum, palladium, rhodium etc are likely to mirror price movements from 2009-2011 when the Eurozone crisis saw the USD rise against the Euro but ultimately remain suppressed against precious metals. Youth unemployment in parts of Europe is sky rocketing towards 50% again but these issues stem from global recessionary causes rather than bank defaults. It remains to be seen whether this recession develops into a wider banking crisis but either way the green shoots of growth are the only thing that will threaten precious metal price appreciation in the short term

Yes it appears there might be a shortage and that is forcing manufacturers to buy on the open market. Tharisa has definitely become more appealing as the basket price (6E in their case) has risen back to pre-Covid highs. As yourself and a couple others have highlighted not many know they produce approx 140koz of PGMs (nearly double SLP's output). Most importantly of all as the PGM basket price has risen it has offset the risks associated with it's Chrome production (namely operating losses). The split in revenue generated from both operations has changed considerably from Chrome 3:2 PGM to approx Chrome 3:5 PGM paving the way for plenty of cash generation in the months ahead.

Would be very interested to take a look at your model forecast :)

Very nice end to the week :)

The ST effect strikes again!

This guy has a much better record than the perma-bear in the post below.
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/detailed-2020-2021-price-forecasts-for-gold-silver/

Noel - I appreciate a well reasoned alternate opinion as much as the next man but please stay on topic and avoid baiting other people you may have history with. As it happens I don't believe 350p is outlandishly absurd although I wouldn't advocate aiming for that price near term, but then I am bullish about precious metals right now. AAU today hit a new high of 6.4p and it was trading around 1.8p not so long ago. My point being mid-caps like CEY and HOC are still being valued on last years forecasts and not $1900/oz+ gold / $26/oz silver.

With regards the author of the silverdoc article he is a bit of a perma-bear according to someone familiar with their previous work in the comments section. I will support that with a list of some of his most recent articles concerning gold and silver:

17th April - Trader: Silver Breaks Rising Support, Implications VERY Bearish
7th May - Precious Metals Investors Look Out! The Bearish Technical Implications For Silver Remain Intact
26th May - The Signs Just Keep Coming In: The Gold & Silver Decline May Take Place In June
27th May - STRONG BEARISH SIGNAL For Gold Miners: HUI Invalidates Breakout Above 2016 Highs!
1st June - A PERFECTLY Bearish Sign: Clear Chart Formation Suggests Gold Miners’ Decline In June
3rd June - CRYSTAL CLEAR: Silver’s Attempt To Breakout To New 2020 Highs Has Been INVALIDATED!
22nd June - Bearish Signs Point To Repeat Of Pattern: Gold Likely To Decline TO $1680 (Or So)
1st July - $1800 Breakout Unconfirmed: Gold’s MAJOR DOWNSIDE REVERSAL To Create Cup’s Handle
13th July - Secret Indicator Flashes ‘EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT’, Supports Bearish Gold Forecast
22nd July - Technical Analyst: INVALIDATION Of Silver’s Breakout From 2016 High Expected, Final Sign The Top Is In

I could go back and look at this guys older articles but you get the point. He labels himself as the 'Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager' but I highly doubt he manages any precious metals. It doesn't make his point of view invalid of course but having bothered to then read a bunch of his articles I can see this guy hasn't a clue when it comes to what the driving forces have been and will be going forward. I didn't see anything in his recent articles to suggest why the USD would strengthen, no mention of the Fed's recent policy change or the general macro economic outlook. There are plenty of screenshots of charts but that is it really.

https://www.silverdoctors.com/tag/przemyslaw-radomski/page/2/

Palladium has made some nice gains but the outstanding performer has to be Rhodium, up $1000 in the past couple of sessions to record highs $13,300!

Added more SLP and THS today. Highest price I've paid for SLP but still think it's cheap.

I wouldn't worry about the Irish side-project. The focus is still very much on the producing asset and exploration around it.

First half production of 32,501 GEOs, with gold making up 27,922 ounces and silver 58,529 ounces is set to rise in the second half as the company have reiterated FY forecast production of 75,000 to 80,000 GEOs.

If AAZ are able to produce 42,000 to 47,000 in the second half at $1900 that will generate a significant increase in revenue of $80-90m. To put that into perspective AAZ generated approx $47m revenue in the first half of the year.

Net cash (cash less interest-bearing loans and borrowing) in that time has risen $8m to $29.2 million. This includes an advance tax payment totalling $2.9 million.

Doubling revenue and tripling cash-flow in the second half will be a similar story across the gold mining sector but AAZ has certain other qualities, the dividend, the cash pile and it's low cash costs.

I'm not expecting the gold price to rise from here for these companies to significantly rerate. The sector is still playing catch up following the $500/oz rise in the price of gold since mid March and as I have just demonstrated above, the biggest gains for AAZ and it's shareholders are yet to come.

970 to buy DWHT
620 to buy DWHA

50% discount presumably over the uncertainty of dividend given current trading environment. Looks like an easy choice if you're willing to hold but we seem to be dealing with traders rather than value investors these days

U.S. Added Only 428k Private Sector Jobs in August, vs 950k Expected

The rebound in the U.S. labour market appears to have run out of steam in August.

The private sector added only 428,000 net new jobs in the month, according to a report released on Wednesday by payrolls processor ADP. That's less than half of the 950,000 expected, according to consensus forecasts.

The news is a bad omen for the official government labour market report for August, which is due on Friday.

“The August job postings demonstrate a slow recovery,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Job gains are minimal, and businesses across all sizes and sectors have yet to come close to their pre-COVID-19 employment levels.”

Bit of a fightback happening now, silver just shot up 1.3% from day's low

Certainly seems so. The only caveat is the uncertainty around chrome prices. I'm not sure if pricing is widely available but I have struggled in the past. The momentum in the PGM space will help strengthen the floor at the very least.

Gold revenue increased by 25.9% to US$273.7 million (2019: US$217.4 million) predominantly due to an increase in gold sold of 1.3% to 173,864oz (2019: 171,706oz) and the average US$ gold price received increasing by 24.3% to US$1,574/oz (2019: US$1,266/oz)

The dates listed in the Holdings documents point to the 3rd and 4th July which was the same week the share price began rising from 85p level. I don't believe their trading activities have had any impact on share price volatility through August but that's just my guess.

Great opportunity to snag some discounted TSG shares following gold's reversal from $1,870/oz range to near $2,000 this week. Last month of Q3 is building to be the best yet.

Interim results will be released around the middle of September.