Member Info for the_shareminator

Shsssh jolly! Don't let the cat out of the bag yet ;)

Update on timing of the preliminary results announcement for 30 June 2020 and the sale of Kilimapesa

The preliminary results expected towards the end of November 2020.

Kilimapesa Update: the exclusivity period for the sale of Kilimapesa has been extended to 31 December 2020.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/azerbaijan-armenia-conflict-1.5795572

Agreed, a steal for 2.4 million ounces of gold!

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/933353/pan-african-resources-rises-as-it-acquires-tailings-retreatment-projects-in-south-africa-933353.html

Possibly yes :)

Updates around that time point to the company reinvesting cash flows into resource expansion and discovery drilling at Asacha Gold Mine. We also had a bad Q419.

If I recall, we took quite a hit when the company downgraded resources at the mine and this change in strategy was in response to that. Since then we have seen world class drilling results and an increase in reserves which only includes those results up to April.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TSG/mineral-resource-update-bsgv6ji0gveg2te.html

* Ignore Nov 2017

Yes I remember feeling the same way at the time. I think the special dividend in late 2017 / early 2018 was suspended due to the company's buy back of shares from an institutional investor at around 35p per share. I can't remember the precise details or date of announcement though but it did have a short-term impact on cashflow. I don't know of anything that would affect cash-flow like that at the moment with gold trading at $1900/oz for most of the quarter.

Nov 2016 - special interim dividend of 5 US$0.05 / US$5.5 million
Nov 2017 - special interim dividend of 5 US$0.05 / US$5.5 million
Jan 2019 - special interim dividend of US$0.052 / US$5.7 million

Yes, all £1.4k! And reinvested back in TSG this morning!

16p to buy today.

20p to buy next week.

Don't see much risk here to be honest.

Clean-up programme of the Kamenica River (Sasa project) commenced in late October. Phase 1 expected to complete this quarter and Phase 2 early 2021. Processing of ore at 50% capacity from 2 October to approx 10 October. Processing increased after and has now been operating at full capacity for almost three weeks.

No new COVID-19 cases at Kounrad. Sasa mine has seen an increase in cases however.

The CAML Board is looking into the possibility of reinstating the 2020 interim dividend during Q4 2020.

As of 30 September 2020 cash in the bank was $55.2 million, an increase of 25% since 30 June 2020 ($44 million).

Glad to hear all stores in England and Scotland remain open.

Stores in Wales due to reopen on the 9th are currently still operating (presumably online).

Market likes the news. Back to 150p by Christmas.

Doubled down at this level. That is an incredible 6 month turnaround!

Highlights

Trading "significantly ahead of the Board's expectations" with online sales double what they were this time last year.

Net cash of £8.4m compared with net bank borrowings of £14.1m at the end of H1 FY20.

Christmas trading update expected on Friday 22 January 2021

HUM, PAF, SHG all deserve a place in a diversified portfolio. PAF is the safer of the three which is why the market ascribes a premium valuation to it in comparison with the other two.

My exposure to HUM has admittedly reduced when I transferred some funds to RSG recently (mainly because of shared locality) but I do believe this stock now offers better value proposition from the current level than SHG (16.5p) and PAF (21.75p) and even RSG (44p).

DEFENSIVE portfolio with sources of UPSIDE
SUPPORTIVE GOLD ENVIRONMENT
2-3x GEARING of earnings to gold price gains
Portfolio UNDERVALUED vs gold price and large caps

LSE-traded fund since 2006, invests in small & mid-cap precious metals miners (producers, developers, explorers).

? 2019’s best-performing investment trust among the 400+ London-listed funds (price up 77%) and is currently third best performing year-to-date (price up 78%).

? Primarily a geared play on gold price: In 2019, the gold price rose 18% while the GPM NAV gained 80%. Year-to-date, the
gold price is up 26% while the GPM NAV is up 54% (all in USD and NAVs are diluted for subscription shares).

? The fund managers see supporting factors for further NAV upside – they highlight:
1. Strong gold environment. Central bank policies and low real interest rates are highly supportive. Also, reserves in
the ground have been declining as exploration and development of new projects has been cut in recent years.
2. Portfolio is undervalued vs current gold price and large caps; the managers have rotated the strong performers into
laggards with significant upside potential; many holdings can rerate as projects commission and/or on M&A activity.
3. Silver (20% allocation currently) can deliver outsized returns relative to gold as it benefits from c.50% industrial
demand, which is strongly supported by the growth in the solar PV market (used in panels) and the 5G build out.

? FINAL exercise date for subscription shares (ticker GPSS.L, last price 7.25p) is 30 Nov 2020. Each subscription share
gives its holder the right to buy one new ordinary share at 46.14p, which is currently 18% below the market price of 55.9p

Managers note about the portfolio:
? Very little exploration risk as 89% is in producers and developers and many developers will start producing in 2021
? 60% of portfolio companies are cash flow positive at current gold price and earnings are 2-3x geared to gold price gains
? Valuations are depressed relative to gold price as analyst estimates based on $1,500-1,600 gold price vs current $1,900+ level
? Valuations depressed relative to large caps
? Many holdings have the potential to double in value by appreciating toward their NPV (net present value of deposits), driven by upgrades and significant re-ratings as funded projects commission or via M&A increasing their market cap

If a special dividend is to be paid it will likely come towards the end of November similar to the 2016 special dividend.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TSG/special-dividend-bfknhfwby9nbv7g.html

I don't think anybody foresaw SHG falling below 15p prior to the placing news. I have some powder dry for when there is a shift in market sentiment but at the moment not tempted, with all precious metal stocks taking a hammering today.

Since gold topped out in early August we have had nearly 3 months of decline, but we are still trading more than $300/oz higher than at the start of this year. I'm expecting a quick drop followed by a sharp rally similar to what happened in April when lockdowns came into force and then stimulus followed. This Christmas should coincide with some of the greatest stimulus packages the world has ever seen.

Cheer up folks, Santa and his little helpers at the Fed are coming

Bonanza grades! One thousand, three hundred and five grams per tonne over 0.8m!

Bonanza grade intercepts
1,305.4 g/t Au and 614 g/t Ag over 0.8m
159.5 g/t Au and 120 g/t Ag over 5.0m
51.1 g/t Au and 84 g/t Ag over 2.4m
63.4 g/t Au and 448 g/t Ag over 0.8m
37.8 g/t Au and 94 g/t Ag over 1.8m

Other significant intercepts
32.3 g/t Au and 102 g/t Ag over 10.6m
32.4 g/t Au and 204 g/t Ag over 1.7m
16.2 g/t Au and 335 g/t Ag over 3.4m
18.4 g/t Au and 519 g/t Ag over 2.6m
15.1 g/t Au and 225 g/t Ag over 2.9m
14.7 g/t Au and 37 g/t Ag over 2.6 m
10.7 g/t Au and 14 g/t Ag over 3.3m

In June 2020, TSG announced a new JORC-compliant Mineral Resource Estimate ("MRE") for the Asacha Gold Mine. The combined V25N and V25S mineral resources totalled 7.0 tonnes of gold in the Indicated category at an average grade of 18.5 g/t Au and 1.8 tonnes in the Inferred category at an average grade of 13.7 g/t Au.

Together, V25N and V25S comprise an almost continuous gold zone 1 km long, located less than 1.5 km from the Asacha Gold Mine and mill that have been in continuous operation since 2011.

"Since the publication of that MRE, multiple high-grade gold and silver results have been returned. When these results are combined with the new exploration data generated, we believe there is significant potential to upgrade the JORC-compliant MRE, which is expected to be commenced at the end of this year."

Since the publication of the MRE in June 2020 , the Group has drilled 31 new holes totalling 10,350 metres on V25N and in the past 12 months a total of 116 holes (32,400 metres) have been drilled on the Asacha license.

Drilling is expected to continue for a minimum of 12 months. The main objective of the next phase of drilling is to improve the definition and delineation of Vein 25 in order to increase the size of, and upgrade the category of, the resources to higher confidence categories. A series of step-out drill-holes in the North and South far extensions of Vein 25 and a series of other high potential targets on the license area will be drill-tested in the next few months.

Underground development in the upper levels of V25S produced 22,740 tonnes of ore at 19.9 g/t gold. This bulk sampling confirms the consistency and the low nugget effect of the gold in this part of Vein 25 and "is a good indication of good future recovery in the rest of Vein 25."

According to the COO states TSG will provide an updated JORC-compliant Mineral Resource Estimate statement at the end of this year, incorporating all new drilling results and exploration data.

Same thing happened with HGM earlier this year. Taken out under fair value.

I'd also recommend CAML at this stage in its cycle. $55m cash, net debt falling away, should be cash positive by June 2021, soon to announce resumption of dividend and expecting higher yield in the new year

"The Company welcomes these developments and is in close contact with the Government of Azerbaijan regarding co-operation on the future development of the Zangilan district. However, the timeline for any investigation and commercial exploitation of Vejnaly is unknown as it depends, inter alia, upon safe access to the Zangilan district and security of the contract area. However, once secure, the Company plans to immediately start work at Vejnaly. The Company will update its shareholders with further developments."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJnibwOpUzE&list=UU7EDIC3ONWZpN3DLkRzmhww

Interesting set of results today, net debt reduced from $12m down to $1m including bullion on hand. This was on lower than expected production and higher AISC.

I hold both SHG and HUM and regularly draw comparisons when conducting analysis with peers in the sector. Now SHG are expected to fulfil the last 12koz of hedged production this quarter (possibly early next), it's pretty obvious quarterly cash-flow will start to outperform HUM's quarterly cash-flow thanks to NL's low cost operations.