Member Info for the_shareminator

Hi Indianna Thanks for the reply at the weekend, I quite enjoy our discussions so appreciate your considered replies. Regarding Novo it states in the full year accounts the reasons why and I believe Novo production made up proportionately more than in the previous year. This is why the average realised price of gold was only $1291/oz in 2013. "The average price of gold realised by MNV and Belaya Gora (net of commission) decreased by 15.4% to US$1,405 per ounce in 2013 compared with US$1,660 per ounce in 2012. The average price of gold equivalents realised by Novo in 2013 was US$1,076 per eq. oz, 23.7% below the level achieved in 2012. The average price at Novo is based on the spot price for metals contained in the concentrates (gold, lead, zinc and silver) net of the fixed processing and refining costs at the Kazzinc plant. The Group's average realised price of gold and gold equivalents amounted to US$1,291 per oz in 2013 compared with US$1,586 per oz in 2012, a decline of 18.6%" Today production forecasts are lower for the year which will impact AISC as group costs are spread across fewer produced ounces. However cash costs as expected are lower and that looks set to improve into 2015 Gold price moving up to this level is a good sign, likewise news you highlighted over certain governments attitude to their gold. 2015 should be a much better year for producers all round. Noticed the buying pressure as the gold price was rising, took this to 34p thereabouts.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/210254/isg-rises-seven-year-high

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/210256/city-view%3A-pick-housebuilders

Looks cheap but 95% of cash generated last year for GED came from this asset. Are they replacing this soon and does anyone know the figures for forecast revenue/profit?

Incredible returns from the airline stocks atm! 22% traffic increase coincides with falling oil price, costs down this quarter reported in the next. 10p coming

click on charts, click on 3yr and tell me RRS was not 7775...

Sadly for you the charts do not lie. High of 7770 in October 2012 and hit a low of 3678 in October 2014... by my calculation that's 53% down and yes I will pick the low as gold falling to its lowest in 3 years was the cause for it. Idiot...

Nice trend reversal!

Another loon putting words in my mouth... btw great comparison, comparing a tech stock to a gold mining stock. RRS are 50% down in 3 years...you seem so aggrieved by POG. I'm happy to invest in POG whilst my blue chips return dividends and continue to make gains. You keep ranting at your screen little man.

Well with replies like that it's little wonder no one discusses these things with you... £4bn market cap is all that needs to be said really. Pension play, maybe make some money riding the gold price swings right now... POG net debt has been falling for 18 months... Profitable with low group costs and ready to bounce from ridiculously low market cap post-refinancing. Anyone holding over the last three years and not reacting to macro factors has lost across the gold sector, including RRS which is down 50% POG have fallen furthest but did pretty well after results last summer, jumping from 55-60p range to 125-130 in the space of a month. Hey that was a lucrative trade. Even more attractively valued now.

omgpop - in answer to your question on POG - market value of RRS is £4bn for 1 million ounce annual production - market value of POG is £40m for 600,000 ounce annual production POG is a high risk high reward recovery play once refinancing is sorted. RRS is a stable investment, high margin hedge on the gold price. One is effectively a pension play whilst the other is a life-changer potentially in 5 years time from current prices.

Thanks for your reply Indianna, the $880/oz is conservative given ruble and oil prices have fallen further since typing. Information concerning HGM cost breakdowns is not in the public domain or I've yet to find it and there haven't been any recent presentations added to the site for us to make more informed estimates. Unlike with other miners HGM report half yearly so we won't find out until late January at the earliest, results in April. So costs as reported by HGM in this half will be around $850/oz but factor in the $57/oz admin costs that the company do not included in their AISC which eats into cash. Also I believe Noya does not receive spot price, instead some $200/oz lower which impacts overall group revenue. Still it looks like a healthy margin. I guess it depends how much of cash raised then goes back into new development expenditure and how much is kept as cash or pays down debt. I agree the dividend is likely to be cut unless gold moves higher and capital expenditure falls. Russian gold miners will be benefiting that much is certain, whilst their oil-producing counterparts suffer. If HGM are to produce 500koz in two years time, that would be an impressive ramp up and should prove a good return from current levels.

Glib - what are they going to achieve with the funds? Perhaps some excitement exploration results to attract interest for a brief period but all low cap explorers are struggling, especially those in Africa. SMA have a 600koz resource, doing nothing. AMA are back to year lows despite being in a sound financial position and progressing towards production at Yaoure. KEFI acquired all of NYOs African gold assets which has been very bad for shareholders there since the announcement was made. Stratex have acted similarly, taking a majority stake in a depressed miner, presumably because of friendly BOD ties, providing cash, which will be depleted. Stratex will have to be involved in future financing or else dilution to GRL which reduces STI's stake unless they participate. STI are already stretched in that part of the world with exploration in Senegal... This might be the reason for the drop recently. Altintepe Gold Project would have returned solid returns and still might. Just wish it wasn't going back into new projects all of which located in Africa! http://minesite.com/2014/11/28/emma-priestley-joins-stratex-international-with-a-focus-on-business-development/

GRL - couldn't think of a worse place to put £1.25m... STI would have been better off using that cash to buy some STI shares into Treasury, reduce the free float and release back to market in a few years once production is well under way and the share price multiples of todays price. GRL are just going to p1ss it up the wall..

I'd put more money on the FTSE falling back rather than breaking through 7000 which will having a temporary cooling affect. The question is when. I'm more leveraged in Ryan Air and Easy Jet right now. Low oil prices should persist. Any stock market weakness and I'll exit. The markets will fall if interest rates are hiked and this will be a double whammy for companies like BDEV and TW. (although I don't know the latter very well). The risk is watching people continue to buy oblivious to this all but there will be a correction at some point in the next 6 months, especially with UKIP growing in popularity. If they form a coalition the threat of exiting the EU will have some serious consequences, shares will fall much further than during the Scottish Independence vote. Are you gearing up or leveraging for any major macro-events?

The IAS 19 pension scheme deficit increased from £22.7 million in 2013 to £27.7 million at the end of the year under review. The main driver of this increase was the adverse impact of actuarial assumptions which increased the deficit by £8.8 million (2013: £2.7 million). The Group continues to pay £2.75 million per year by way of deficit funding, as agreed with the Scheme's Trustees and approved by The Pension Regulator. The next triennial valuation will take place as at 31 May 2014 and is due to be finalised and agreed in 2015. Net debt increasing also...

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/208291/time-buy-hot-sector Think the sectors been pretty hot last quarter, time for a cooling period I feel. Has to be some uncertainty as to who will win the General Election and would expect this to weigh negatively on UK markets in coming months, thoughts?

Gold production of 5koz in Q3 expected to almost double to around 9koz in Q4 and in subsequent quarters. As a result high cash costs of $1,002/oz in Q3 is expected to fall to around $900/oz Groups costs which are spread over ounces produced will be lower also. At current gold prices that suggests gross profit rises from $0.9m to $2.5m per quarter. Margins look very thin all said and done though...

Cash-flow better than 6 months ago but the trend is still terrible. Liabilities increased by £7-8m in the 6 months. Loans due in the next 5 years around £50m. This whilst interest rates are at record lows...

LSL’s IMS indicates the business is gaining share in a weak market. The net effect is a small reduction in 2014 estimates. Both the company’s and our outlook for 2015 are cautious, but many affordability fundamentals remain supportive even with moderate rate increases. With the shares down c 40% since their peak in February, we believe the market is reflecting a much more alarmist outturn than is probable. LSL Property Services, the UK residential property services company, has two divisions: estate agency (78% of H114 turnover), which owns and operates the second-largest UK estate agent network; and surveying (22%), which provides services for corporate (mortgage lenders) and retail customers. Hidden at the bottom of the recent interim management statement is the phrase "2014 is set to be a record year for LSL and we expect to deliver double digit year on year growth in Group Underlying Operating Profit" Last year Operating Profit was £37.1m so assume a conservative double digit growth of 10% assumes operating profit of £40m+ But Edison don't highlight short-term borrowings (ie loans due for repayments in the immediate future) jump from £2.8m this year to over £18m in 2015. With growth forecast to be slowing and net debt peaking this year it is expected to fall by £8m from £56m.