Member Info for THE_CHAIN

I've averaged up all the way from 4.8p so far. The upside potential here even for us late comers is still massive. I'll be buying every pay day for the foreseeable. May be able to take a step back from work at the ripe old age of 31..
We shall see.

GLA
CHAIN

No, doesn't matter what index. If your money is in an ISA still no tax.

Cont... that scenario B is the more likely, but I concede that in the absence of facts, scenario A remains possible, though GGP job/s should be lost if that is the case.



Anyway…….more food for thought perhaps and maybe one of the many knowledgeable Greatlanders can set us straight on this one ?







vmn

Further musings.. Meant with good humour in response to TMT.
Hello mate…….I saw your posting and the responses…….most of them reasonable. I disagreed with many but hey, it’s a billboard and ALL opinions have value.



There was one post which I think it is worth taking issue with as I think it is potentially misleading……and it would be good to see if anyone else could help establish facts. It is with regard to the possibility of a takeover approach during the JV time period.



So I have here, for your edification (and possibly mild amusement) a theoretical situation to play out/with. Let us say that on Monday morning, Barrick Gold (who I may yet mention in further ‘musings’ as you label them), make a takeover bid for Havieron and, to please some of the happier bb punters, let us say this is set at an unbelievable premium of near 400%.........so 50p a share.



Segue to the Newcrest HQ in Melbourne……….





Sandeep: Streuth !! 50p !! what an offer…….I think we will accept immediately. We are the majority shareholder with 70% and so will also take 70% of the proceeds ……maybe 75% ?? I will get straight on the dog and let GH know.



SCENARIO A



Gervaise: Bloody hell Sandeep…..it’s your lucky day mate, I have just been in consultation with my top special advisor and expert on everything, and he tells me that although you might not even have paid the outstanding 25mill up to around xmas to complete the JV, that you are quite right. You are already the majority shareholder……all you have to do is give me 25mill and you can have the extra 30%........about 2.5 billion I think. I’m told that although you only own 40% at the mo through the JV…..it does n’t matter and there is nothing I can do about it. Bu&&er me….I wish we had thought of that beforehand !



SCENARIO B



Gervaise: Get off Sandeep yer dozy drongo……DYOR !! Mate you’d get slaughtered on our billboard. I refer you to section 16, clause B, subsection E (or somesuch) which clearly states………If during the protracted period of the JV, an takeover offer shall be received, then the JV will be frozen at that point until a response is made. Said response will be decided by the prevailing relative shareholdings of the two participants at that time…….or somesuch legalese. To wit……we’ve still got 60%.......we’ll accept the offer and that will be our share.



Now I do not have access to the minutae of the JV agreement, but as Havieron has effectively, been in the crosshairs from a takeover perspective for a long time now, I would find it passing strange if the detail guys at GGP had not anticipated this possibility.



It does not matter who makes the bid, the reasoning is the same. I think that if NCM want to bid for Hav now, they (likely) have to bid for our 60%. This was my original reasoning but I excluded it as it is lengthy. My personal thought remains that scenario B is the more likely, but I concede that in the

My pleasure Socialist.

Chain

Fair comment TMT. We shall see, either way I don't see how we loose with either scenario. It's good to be in greatland.

GLA
CHAIN

Thanks viking, appreciated.

ATB
CHAIN

Thank you for all the positive responses.

GlA
CHAIN

14 there is always one. Good luck with your investment, glad to see I'm getting some constructive responses.

Cont... not to be 100% owners of any project…..this they see as good business sense on a risk/reward basis. Also, 70/30 seems to be their preferred allocation of risk. Would they deviate from this ? Well perhaps if the rewards were great enough and while the GGP SP remains in this area, it has short term financial possibilities. Research shows that globally, acquisition premia tend to top out at about 50%.

Time may not be on their side as their own drilling results, couple with aggressive broker upgrades, might cost them a great deal of money. If they go early to try and get in before these results, them they have to bid for 60% while they only own 40%.

If they wait……the other 30% could be very expensive indeed. IMO these options will have been assessed and dismissed by the NCM BoD already.



For further guidance, rewatch any Biswas presentation. His mantra for every key decision is Return on Investment. He already has 70% of Hav for effectively, nothing. Why does he want to pay an arm and a leg for the other 30% and **** off the junior partner in the process with an undesired (assumption) approach.



For arguments sake, just say you are Biswas and you are still looking to improve the future of your company…….you have (say) 2billion to spend. Which then, might represent the best ROI……buy the rest of Hav or perhaps, invest in a succession of GGP discoveries…….maybe 55% of Scallwag for starters (he speculated). I would at least be keeping my powder dry until the initial Scally drilling results come through.



Lastly………the experienced GGP posters have (quite rightly given historical evidence) declared that a company HAS to be either an explorer or a miner. Black and white. Just my opinion, but I think we might be witnessing the emergence of a completely new animal…..which we might label a proxy-miner. An exploration company that is so dramatically successful in both the size and grade of it’s discoveries, that it finds it can afford to retain portions of it’s discoveries, while getting JV partners to mine them.

I wonder how the market might value this new animal, with it’s low overheads and prospects of both income AND capital appreciation ? Very highly one might argue.

It will be fascinating and hopefully very profitable watching this situation gradually develop.

In amongst the clutter, I see more discussion about a potential takeover at GGP…….by NCM.
I won’t comment on the idea of a takeover of the whole of GGP as this is currently a ridiculous concept.

As regards a takeover of Haverion alone……..FWIW, I consider this too to be extremely unlikely.

There is an incredible multiplicity of possible futures for GGP and I suppose a Hav takeover is one of them. In all of these possible futures, an higher SP and market cap mitigate in favour of GGP. To this end, we are witnessing a tactical and strategic endeavour unfold that will mitigate against any possible negatives (including a cut price takeover), by attempting to drive up both in a co-ordinated fashion. I believe that this strategy originates with Hannam and will be perpetuated by them as they (and Numis) continue to update their target share prices with regularity, as NCM come out with drilling updates.

The problem we have at the moment, is that although our share prices continues to move north in tiny increments, this is (for the greater part, Marlborough excluded) being driven by the arrival of many more small PI’s.

While to any genuine LTH a potential upside of 47% might seem impressive, it does not necessarily impress an AIM investor with multi=bagging, short term targets.

As we get more drilling data from the HGZ, Hannam will up their SP target and this should allow the SP to inch forward again. Note also, that Hannam have kept their powder dry as regards the brecchiate zone. This will have to be included at some point, although it will I think have a negative effect on the overall AISC at Telfer for Hav ore output.

Everyone would like to see the SP significantly higher, but for this to happen. GGP bill board members need to ask themselves just WHO is going to buy at 12, 15, 18 and 20p to get it there ? It is possible that the Hannam material may attract some new HNW PI’s and just perhaps, some smaller II’s. I think it is fair to say that many existing PI’s profess amazement that nobody is buying at the current ‘bargain’ price, yet few are even topping up themselves ??
My personal opinion is that if you want to see the share price move materially higher,, we need to see big II’s, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds etc., get involved.

While I appreciate that it might very occasionally happen (see SXX), and I know that capital appreciation has obvious value to all investors, the idea that these big players would invest in any company without an income stream is IMO, highly unlikely.

That is why it is so important that we do not sell the other 25% of Hav. Once it is accepted that will be paying a dividend of sorts in the future, then we might attract the sort of very LTH’s that we need to support what could yet be a stratospherically high SP. An MRE and perhaps, FTSE memberships would also be needed/helpful.

So let us return to the takeover hypotheses……..firstly, the prevalent NCM modus operandum is

Cheers Chris, nearly made up my losses to. Looking forward to the future.

Do not engage him. Talks utter rubbish. Just put him in the bin.

Not investment advice, but it's better to be in before news. You'll likely get a better entry price now and will have to buy at a higher price on news. Again just my opinion, decision is down to you.

Haha! 50p dividends and 5.50 a share, I'll be retiring before I'm 35 if that did happen! No harm in dreaming.

Thanks spy.

Still going? Share price is still refreshing.

The 11th is a Thursday is it not?

Haha also West Sussex, small world.

IIs will get involved.. But not until after the MRE.