RE: China23 Mar 2021 21:53
evening bucolic.for once our views diverge.i actually think the china deal was very good news. imo the reason it did not set the s/p on fire is simply that it was just the first stage of a process which will take some time to complete before its benefits can be felt. the chinese regulatory system is no less rigorous than the eu and fda and it will be some time before regulatory approval is obtained.so apart from the upfront payments etc and the covering of trial costs (a very significant aspect in itself) it will have no near term revenue benefits, hence a relatively muted response. the most significant aspect for me is the terms of the profit sharing. a 50/50 split is,i mo,extremely generous and indicates not only that the chinese partner was vey keen to secure the deal, but also that they expect it to be very remunerative. by comparison regent pacific's deal with wangbang biopharmaceuticals (which incidentally also did very little for its share price) was a royalty payment of low to mid teen .now obviously each situation is different, but i genuinely believe the impact and significance of the chinese deal has been seriously underestimated.the news on friday is completely different of course .essentially it was saying that we will be actively marketing in europe etc within a very short period of time, with all uncertainty as to trias and approval removed, a completely different category of situation. obviously the terms of the deal for europe,which i expect to hear in the course of the next few weeks, will be the next big driver of s/p movement. i am not concerned with the ip situation. companies which want to market in china etc have to get a chinese pharma on board (or at least one withe the appropriate infrastructure and sales force etc) and if the ip situation were as hazardous as you suggest these deals would never happen. all just my opinion of course and i respect your view as always.