Member Info for testpack3

Yes GM, 90 days from 15 Aug rns is indeed 13 Nov ( thankfully not a Friday). GM, I raised a question a week or so ago, re: 'Chinese whispers', and if engineers at site would have any logging data on a regular basis, during the well test, to give them an indication of the possible gas flow rates,? Or would they have to wait the full 90 days for a definitive answer? Yr comments would be appreciated. GL. TP3

Hi aled41, I'm sorry to hear that you have sold out. I cannot speak for xuk27, but I would be confident he would say we are not de-ramping the share, but trying to get to the bottom of something which may become a littlt grey, and not in the best interest of pi's. The CEO stated that the min value of Silvec White was Es500/tonne. This equates to approx Es8/mtr2 when cut into 2cm thick scants. These can typically measure 200cm x 1600cm. The higher grade, less inclusions can command Es3000/t = Es50/mtr2. This is un-polished. Polishing adds great value. In the first case of 'low' grade marble, polished 2cm scants can be Es80/mtr2 ex-works, and higher qualities over Es200/myr2 The quantity can have a significant effect on price.. The important thing doe me here, is this. If the 40% GRP only applies to mined stone, which is then transported from site, the GRP paid , for lower quality stone, is 40% of Es200/tonne = Es80.. Lets assume it mines 20,000t/annum = Es1.6M. Not bad income as aled41 said, for not even digging a hole in the quarry. However, when the marble is polished it's worth then becomes, for lower grade, at 20,000t/a = Es40M = Es16m in GRP's. A massive difference. Naturally. if the stone is transported from site un-worked, the eventual polished price accommodates the Es1.6m GRP. I have asked FOX to clarify this. So aled41, I'm not sure if we have another Azil here, I doubt it erring on optomistic side, I I do not think any of yr comments were wrong. I have not attended AGM's, and not read every rns. However, I doubt if shareholders were informed of the vastly differing amounts of GRP;s to be paid if the stone is worked or not. Thereis also another issue with the owners of the quarry, who will in turn be paid their GRP's by the Maltese co. But that's for another day. I hope aled, that you decide to re=invest, in what could become, a very profitable investment. I will keep the board posted of any replies from FOX. All in MHO of course. DYOR, GL n ATB ps,I am not an insomniac, I'm on a different time zone to Dear Old Blighty.

formwe = former. apols

Very cozy indeed paulwi. Further to the link ' Value of', I have today mailed the co asking for relationships etc between the primary and secondary lessors and PDMR's at Fox. Also raised the question of the 40% GRP for a min period of 20yrs, which may then be renewed for a further 20 yrs?????. Is this in the best interest of all shareholders, or just the BOD's and a formwe colleague. Will let u know the outcome. GL and ATB

Well researched xuk27. I thought of mailing FOX, and asking the questions that you have so ably answered, but yr further research may indeed bring more to the surface. I would probably have received the standard reply ' not aware at this time of any relationship between PDMR's and NWH Ltd'. However, 40% is a hell of a Gross Royalty payment. Not even Nett!!!. I will ask the BOD about this, and ask them if they will be adding value 'at site' to the mined stone ( by cutting, polishing etc), which would increase thit's Royalty Payments, or if they will ship mined blocks to other facilities for 'adding value'. Well done n GL

I agree links, but on this 'frack'.??. The Baltic shale may not be as brittle as eg. the Permian Basin, and may not fracture as easily. It may require extensive different frack parameters to obtain the 'magic' result. I posted a week ago, on 'Chinese Whispers', that the lack of serious buying for a 'game changing' play suggest the frack is non-commercial. I also asked, not being an oilman, if the logging data gives engineers on site running pressure parametrs, or does the test have to wait the 90 days before a definitive answer can be given? To date, no answer has been forthcoming. I am not de-ramping the share, just trying to make a value judgement. In the event I have read the situation incorrectly, I have retained a much smaller holding in both 3L and SLE to have at least a foot in the door should the sp go N big time. All in MHO of course. GL n ALB

It is a difficult number to estimate since there are a number of values to consider. There is a per tonne value of mined large blocks. There is then a value if the slabs are cut to scants, another value if they are cut to tiles, another value if they are then polished, or whatever surface is applied, then there is Monumental marble. The rns released stating the leasing of Prilep Omega quarry for a consideration of £1M, and a 40% Gross Royalty Payment , payable to New World Holdings (Malta) Ltd. ?? What sort of deal is this? I am unable to find anything on this Maltese Co, and for all I know, It may be owned by one or several BOD's. 40% Gross Royalty Payment. Any one have any different thoughts on this cf to my cynacism. GLA

I agree with yr sentiment GM re: churning. However, I remain concerned with the lack of enthusiasm in what could be a 'game changing play'. Not being an oilman leaves me at a disadvantage on the technical, and practical side of a 90 day test, and the investment decision is based on 'who, when where how and why'.I have made an assumption in my 'reading' of the situation, that the 90 day test, and the dynamics of the proppant recovery, will give some feedback to the engineers on site, that may be definitive, or at least give a 'gut' feeling. If there is no discernable information to be gleened 'til the last day of the test, thenI my reading of the situation would be absolutely useless. However, I would still stand by my reasoning that San Leon remains a better investment, in any event at Lublewo. All INMHO of course, and GL, ATB

Hi g'tom. I admire yr conviction, but would err on the more cautious side for the benefit of the kids legacy. 3 may well come good, but I fear not on this frack. I base this purely on sp going South. Ie more sell than buys. There has been research on the effect of ''Chinese whispers', albeit in another regime. If 1 person 'in the know', tells.an average 4-7 good friends, and they in turn tell 4-7 friends, then in a short space of time, a few 1000 people will 'be in the know'. I wont bore you with the maths, of how many, and at what financial level they would invest, but it would certainly drive the sp North to a figure approaching 28p. The reverse is also true if a duster was the 'whisper'. Of course the 1000's of people that would be 'in the know', would not have shares to sell, and probably lacked the experience to short the share. However, there would be some shareholders, based purely on the fact that they knew the person who originated the 'whisper'.In this case, one would expect a fall in the sp, as has happened. There is an unlikely event that most of the buys have come from a +ve insider 'whisper', and all the sells are from sceptics, like me. I have posted before that I believe San Leon to be a better de-risked play. I still hold a 'small' position here, and very much hope I am wrong in my reading of this. All IMHO of course, and the very best of GL, if only for the kids n g'kids sake. lol.

100.000 buy at 6.69 100,000 sell at 6.575 Spread is 1.75% on a penny share? I read this as mm's are trying to accumulate shares for big buyers. IMHO of course

They are buys. Just put a 'dummy' buy through for 100,000 shares and could have had 6.69p.

I have to agree.On the verge of what would be a 'game changing' play in E Eu, and little interest . No chinese whispers. May hold onto a few thousand, just in case, and get a foot in the door

Hi mpg1, I use Galvan ( IG), and I just 'fone' my order through, and it's placed in seconds at a known price to me. As far as auctions go, I believe the answer to yr question is yes. GL, n ATB

did not listen, but viewed slide show. Only 1 slide of Baltic play saying 90 day well test is underway. GLA

Hi Dan. Thanks comments. With FTSE250 cos., I err on the side of levered products ( CFD ). The margin call is 15%, so for eg. I can hold a £20k position with a £3k deposit., and no stamp duty. I prefer this approach with high divi yield cos, and CGL is nigh on 6%. IF it was to pay 6% this coming FY, divi would be £1,2K on £3k outlay. Pretty good, + any possible rise in sp. Obviously I have neglected the downsides. 30% drop in sp causes me a £6 loss on a £3k outlay. CGL had major profit hits in 2011 - Japan Tsunami, hurricanes, floods in Eu, and the sp held up pretty well. 416p 6/06/11, down to low of 345 ( -17%) 12/09/11, and to 431p on 06/02/12, ( + 20%). and it increased divi. So Dan, I'm in. Plse do not take this as advice to buy, or to have levered products on any share of course. Wishing us both, and CGL the best of everything. GL Tom.

Thnks posting that Craig. In line 8 Fox nearly said ' whether or not......there is gas there'. and stopped himself, and went on ...'what sort of rates etc'. I'd forgotten he then went onto say ' time we get to the end of the year'. I thought the logging would be quicker than that, and flow rates would be established before the end of the month.? I am disappointed in the lack of decent buying in this share, in fact it's down since 3 fracked. It appears to me investors sense a duster, or rather a, non-commercial flow.. However, always expect the un-expected, and 3 may prove to be the best share of the year. All IMHO of course. GL

I read a transcript of last presentation, and only a passing remark re: Baltic Shale play. They could not make any price sensitive announcement at presentation, but, as you say, any 'hints' will be gladly received. GL

Hi Dan, I see the co. from a different angle, and look at 'worse case scenarios', and yes, all the points you raised are valid. Catlin would not be a sole insurer on cat. events. The 2 threads ( Undervalued, and Undervalued or Not?), have given me, insight which was previously lacking, and decision making is easier.This must be the whole point of these posts. Thanks and GL

However, 2227, rns stated premiums dropped by 6% on increasing exposure. Yes, I agree,future events may increase premiums, but will not help bottom line now, if they occur.

Yes. Dan, it is cheap against it's peers, and this bodes well for a decent push North, especially with the cos aggressive dividend policy. Like previous posters, on the surface it looks to be a great investment. However, every time I turn on the tv, and hear of some catastrophic event in some far flung place, or maybe closer at home, do I want my first thought to be 'how much will Catlins share fall '. Hmmmmm. tricky this one for me. GL.