Member Info for TerryM1

Broomtree

A bit off topic for DEC but interesting

Good call, I don't know much about RGL except it is in office space (which I stayed away from) and a huge discount. I did have NRR managed by an investment company who sold it out at the wrong time, may look at this again in the future as it seems to have a good management. I have gone mostly for SUPR and large and small warehouse REITS e.g BBOX, SHED and number of others including some general REITs like SREI and BCPT (both however have some office), will be looking for a home from EPIC funds when they arrive probably early next year along with ones from GHE if I don't sell out before hand, topped up both when takeover were on the table. Uranium is the new area I am into, looks better than gold long term and so far good profits.

Notrex

Just to add, I call this the ostrich approach to investments.

Notrex

Looks like some of the fans of DEC cannot see what has been happening, prefer to use historic valuations of their shares and cannot see that companies who's SP is far too low get taken out for peppercorn amounts. History is your best guide.

TheTrotsky

“Don't be obtuse. The fact that RGL is a property company (thanks for pointing out the obvious) is irrelevant. RGL, like DEC, has a lot of debt which is weighing down its share price at the moment. Debt is debt, regardless of what business line you are in, and excess debt can put you out of business if you can't afford to repay it. That's the only parallel I was making. There are actually several investment trusts currently trading on yields of c15% or more. As regards direct comparitors with DEC, please point out any other UK-listed oil and gas companies with a similar business model. There are none that I'm aware, so we'd probably have to look to the US or Canadian markets to see if there are any comparitors and how they are currently fairing.”

Don’t be disingenuous, RGL is the only example you could come up with, it dividends are going down and is a dividend trap and yet it still over 5% below DEC’s yield before the next dividend drop. I follow REITs closely as I have large holdings and none of the ones I own have a yield even close to half of DECs yield. If you want to compare with REITs some of mine have gone up over 8% today and all but 1 above DECs rise (don’t get we wrong very happy with DEC so far today), the one below just sold all its property getting ready to pay this out to shareholders so really does not count.

“Since you've scoffed at some of my suggestions, perhaps you'd like to enlighten us with some of your suggestions as to why the share price is in the doldrums (beyond simply blaming Jim because you've got no better ideas).”

I have said this many times, ESG policies at funds and general fund sell offs are the most likely cause and the only way to counteract this is through BBs as more enlighten companies are doing, SHELL, BP et al. O&G companies have know of the ESG issues for a time so prepared for it with decent BBs unlike DEC who went on a spending spree giving little room for BBs without increasing borrowing, however these would still be very accretive by using borrowing.

“PS. It interesting that the share price appears to be (somewhat) rebounding today following better news from the bond markets. If (and it's a big if at the moment) the share price rebound continues then the potential link between DEC's recent share price travails and the concurrent bond market upheavals may be worth investigating further i.e. why the upheavals in the bond markets might have triggered a sell off of DEC and (if so) could it happen again. The only reason I can think is that institutional investors might have been top-slicing DEC to raise cash to cover margin calls on their bond protfolios but that's just a guess.”

And this is good news but if you like to compare with REITs see above but I am very happy to see this and long may it continue.

TheTrotsky

“TerryM1, I haven't lost shed loads of money. I may have lost shed loads of money on paper but I have no intention to sell; so my current protential losses are unrealised. The potential losses do make me uneasy but until anybody can find a specific, identifiable problem for DEC's share proce fall then I can only conclude that it's a mixed bag of cyclical factors.”

Well that is a strange way to look at things, it is a bit like saying my house has burnt down without insurance but I am not worried as I do not want to sell it yet. When I get portfolio valuations they are based on the current SP not historic values, perhaps you should write to fund managers and brokers to tell them to include only fictional valuations which are based on old SPs when they are at their high or purchase price. I may well use my SIPP to help get loans for my relocation, also relevant when I take drawdowns so very important, Financial Institutions and HMRC will use the current SPs so unlike you as you think that losses are no more than an academic exercise.

“"Not sure too many people are uneasy with hedging losses as these have disappeared". Watch this space. The World Bank is warning that the oil price could soar to $150 a barrel if the conflict between Israel and Hamas escalates to a full-scale Middle East conflict. If so, DEC's accounts will be awash with large non-cash hedging losses again and all those same PIs will start bleating again. The higher hedging prices in the future cost DEC c$100m. Near term hedging gains, net of costs, will likely be marginal. The costs are already sunk so there will be a mismatch between when the income is received and the costs expensed but the net benefit won't be as much as some would have liked/expected.”

You were saying about the fall in current share price not some event which may or not happen in the future, even so there have been hedging losses for a lot longer than the current crash in the SP. O&G price increase or at least the threat has helped my other O&G shares.

Cookoo12620

"never use ad blockers "

I like nofear us adblockerplus, never had any trouble and works well, also pages load quicker without the adds.

Jim800

The reason for the rise today is nothing to do with the BOD, good start but a long way to go until most of us are not losing on this share.

Don't take too much notice of this lot and I think we know this already but a good write up nonetheless.

https://www.fool.co.uk/2023/11/01/which-ftse-250-stock-should-i-buy-in-november/

Ignore GG, as I said he is an attention seeker and if engaged he will come up with loads more rubbish to pull posters refuting his claims and the board will be flooded.

Notex

"I sure hope this is indeed the start of a northern direction of travel"

I am sure we are all hoping this is the case but not so good against many of my other yielding shares some up almost 8%. Still every journey begins with the fist step.

Be interesting to see what happens after BOE rate decision but I suspect the market has already factored in no rise but guidance from BOE may move the market.

Kubrick

Use an ad blocker, musch easier on the eye. ADVFN bans these.

Good results but shares undervalued probably because a lot of money is being spent on Buy Backs instead of increasing the dividend, at this rate will be a very long time before it gets back to pre-covid levels and a lot of inflation since then.

TheTrotsky

“beyond the share price fall, please advise what exactly is the problem with DEC “

Perhaps not very much if you are happy to lose shed loads of money as total returns must include the SP and that is terrible. The SP has fallen to under half what it was a year and a half ago and anybody who bought DEC in the last 3 years is sitting on losses, mostly huge, you may be fine with this but for me this is huge problem.

“Private investor unease about the non-cash hedging losses. “

Not sure too many people are uneasy with hedging losses as these have disappeared but the SP keeps falling.

“Which one of the above do you think Jim should have anticipated or should now be fixing (and isn't)? Who predicted the war in Ukraine and Russian sanctions? “

Russian sanctions put up the gas price and since some of DECs output is not hedged and it also leads to higher hedging prices in the future this is a positive for DEC.

“Terry, I suggest that you have a look at a few property REITs with large debt exposures e.g. RGL. RGL currently has a yield of more than 16% and would have had yield of (probably) c20% if it hadn't cut its dividend in mid-September (and allowing for the general market demise since).”

You say a few but you just managed to find one REIT in the UK with a current yield of 16%, 20% is historic and that’s gone as it has run out of cash. The yield has been dropping since 2019 as this REIT has particular problems as it invests in office space and I suggest the dividend is likely to drop again due to it’s issues, this is known as a Dividend Trap. Take a look at NRR, it too would have a huge yield if it had not been forced to drop the dividends was also a Dividend Trap.

I have 12 REITS all yielding less than half of DEC, none have dropped their dividends and a number have increased them, I am steering clear of RGL for the reasons mentioned above.

So the only company you can find is a REIT (totally different type of company) in trouble with dropping dividend (dividend trap) to compare to DEC and even then the current yield is more than 5% below DEC. Seems to prove my case.

Just so you know all REITs are property companies.

TheTrotsky

"A lot of UK-listed companies, especially companies with large amounts of debt, currently seem to be priced to fail even though they're not experiencing any current debt stress per se."

Which of these companies have a yield of over 21% or perhaps even over 15%?

I know a few around half of DECs yield but nothing getting anywhere near DECs yield.

Notrex

Well and truly 'pi55ed off' but for me a good phrase is

DEC Share Price Burns while BOD Fiddles

I think the dropping SP is making us all somewhat emotional here.

Notrex

" he really does act like he's in a cult here."

I seen this before, they fall in love with a share and support it like their local football team who just keeps losing, however I also have noticed at some point when things get even worse that reality sinks in and they change their mind or go to ground.

SP is very important as we don't hold shares in perpetuity, it is always total returns that are the best measure of any share.

For me the realty is even if I don't sell this will have a bad effect. My SIPP as been literally decemated in the true sense of the word mostly caused by DEC SP and I wish to take this in the not too distant future. Also planning relocating abroad probably to Gibraltar and intending to use my SIPP as some sort of collateral for a loan while I get set up and get my tax and investment affairs in order or perhaps long term as house price as are astronomical alternatively Portugal where there are tax advantages having a large mortgage. So in my case even if you do not sell there a significant financial issues, this is not some academic issue even if you don't sell.

Jim800

" I don't see a SP crisis."

Really, SP down to less than half of what is was, I know gas price were higher then but we are hedged, yield over 21%, SP relentless dropping, falling a lot more that its peers, BOD gone to ground on the issue and running a ostrick police on SP. All of this make a takeover for a pittance more likely and at that point you will be a forced seller and will have to confront your loses.

What is a crisis then as I have asked before, 60p, 55p, 50p or lower, please let me know your figure.

SP now below 66p, 2 days now without BBs and 2 days of falling SP, how low can it go? 21.34% yield, at what yield does the BOD wake up and see that borrowing money for BB adds huge value to DEC, or do they have another plan.

Clued

" BUT I do not like your abusive tone in your last post as everyone is entitled to respect and to their opinion"

"'JDCBC: I think we all acknowledge now that GG is just a shyster who's full of BS - who has been totally exposed - so no need to bother with him further - he's just a joke account now'"

I think I can answer this but I do know it is not aimed at me.

GG has been posting incorrect or just plain wrong information on this board for a time. He pops up when the SP goes down and tries to wind up anyone who will listen with stores of disaster. If he is challenged he just keeps posting rubbish about DEC and how it is going bankrupt. If you engage with him he will takeover the board with endless posts, incorrect figures and information so I can understand when someone get frustrated when he appears. I just ignore all his posts.