Member Info for tep1

Could the large UT an the finish suggests this was brought down to accommodate a purchase

MM's clearing out weak hands before the results

I wouldn't read too much into Fidelity selling. A lot of II's are probably under instructions to hold more cash because of the current global events. Fidelity are probably pre-empting a potential withdrawal of client funds in a worst case scenario.

I think it is still a buying opportunity at these levels and generally still positive for a great outcome. Remember they delivered the previous relocation of WCP successfully to financial plans. After completing the move it guarantees at least another 20 years of mining with higher grade quality.

Even if a unacceptable bid did come in it would only rally the share price to more appreciative levels.

Short sellers now closing positions

Remember the board rejected the offer of $800M since it did not recognise Moma’s value as a long-life, low-cost asset. Lets not forget where KMR are. " WCP A will complete mining at Namalope in late 2025 and commence its transition to the Nataka ore zone. Nataka is the largest of Moma’s ore zones, representing 75% of Kenmare’s Mineral Resources. WCP A is expected to mine Nataka for the remainder of its economic life, which exceeds 20 years."

An offer $800M today would equate to approximately 700p/share. With all due respect what parameters have changed that would allow an offer to be acceptable below that figure? It my mind this still sounds like a great long term hold and continue to reinvest the dividend for now to take advantage of such a cheap share price. Or could I be missing something ?

Getting a bit desperate chums. You're making out that if an offer did indeed eventuate you would accept any miserly sum!

Https://invezz.com/news/2024/01/18/i-called-the-centrica-cna-share-price-top-what-next/

Hardly big buys compared to the number of nil share options acquired over the years.

325 looks to be the bottom to me. Lets see what happens tomorrow. But your 331 trade in my opinion is a good buy. I wish had more cash to spend.

"An intrinsically good business with a falling share price is likely to attract predators, and in June 2014 Kenmare received an all-share takeover offer from Australian miner Iluka Resources. Worth about 17p a share (a 40% premium to the prevailing price of 12p), the offer valued the company at about $800m. The board rejected the offer, saying it did not recognise Moma’s value as a long-life, low-cost asset. Its stance was supported by investment manager M&G, which held 19% of Kenmare’s shares."

$800M was approx £480M at the time

Thanks rich. I prefer the detail though and use stockopedia consequently. forecasts for 2025E havent been updated there as yet. I think Hannam have sound footing in the commodities space and have history with Kenmare. I think their detailed report is a good insight of potentially what is to come. Overall, I cannot shake the feeling this is being primed for a bid

I remember the opportunistic iluka offer. I am starting to wonder whether this is being worked for another one of those "opportunistic" bids. There were few large trades executed today. Would be interested to see what happens in the auction today and what is reported out of hours.

I very much doubt a 400-500p bid would do it since that is less than half the current book value per share. I think more around 700p or 680M

Not all were cash purchases. But agree none have sold

Hannan & Partners have revised volumes downward by 30% against the previous forecast for 2025E. Are you suggesting they've only been made aware of the material impact of the move? The surprising bit was the forecast of 2025E cost of sales which has been revised upward by 20% and exceeds than 2023E where greater volumes are produced.

Consequently they are revised down dividend to 18c/share from previous 36c/share.

"KMR announced that demand for its products remained high at the end of 2023, just not high enough to support a more solid price. However, with these lower prices, we note titanium pigment feedstock supply has been flat with little resource expansion to cover the medium-term and long-term. The largest source of new supply has been from increased ilmenite concentrates entering China where the preference has been to purchase ilmenite for beneficiation over the more expensive high-grade feedstocks. This demand was felt by KMR in H2’23. These challenges for the pigment producers led to reduced pigment inventories and as such 2024 will require inventories to be resupplied. We expect this to support demand as supply gets impacted by the prices. KMR has achieved a strong order book in Q1, however this is at reduced prices QoQ. Overall, we expect lower realised prices for KMR’s products in 2024 than in 2023; we assume a 12% reduction in revenue/t shipped. "

2025E projections were a little surprising for me! It suggests there will be a considerable decline in dividend in coming years.

And then probably back below after its paid. Not really sure why there is such a dramatic drop today. Its was more than 30% undervalued when the share price hit 500p.

Here's hoping the drop in share price is likely due to the state of markets being crazy at the moment. Most investors are probably fearing war or a recession and prefer to stay in cash until there is more certainty on commodity trading. But I second your opinion on management @raxfactor. They are hard pushed to comment on the future positively which has has likely influenced share price decline since their last update. For me a 12% yield is not to be scoffed at! Once the move is done I am hoping there will be more in the kitty for shareholder distribution. I doubt we will get a buyout at this stage of the cycle and particularly with the planned move.

@contango always do like it when you are posting even if you are slightly more negative. It reminds me that there are still investors in the game here. I agree with you its a quality asset and the share price makes it very tempting to buy more. gla and here is hoping tomorrow is a better day

And now a strike on yemen which could have the side effecr of further disruption

For what its worth, historically, over the past few years the share price dipped in first weeks of January and then went on to post a rise of around 10-15% in time for reporting Q4/EOY in February.

The article supports my view that the dividend will be increased this coming financial year which should put a higher floor on the share price. Good luck catching the bottom. Even at these prices it still cheap imo.

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1037878/shell-perks-up-as-oil-price-rallies-and-city-bulls-make-case-1037878.html