Member Info for tep1

I feel I need to qualify my calc @sakura since it is slightly more than my expected figure I provided as I had excluded the buy backs from the previous shares in issue for the first dividend distribution. but $50M for dividends for 2023 was previously stated. Pound is forecasted to get stronger over the next quarter so at the end of day what arrives in your account will probably remain the same. then there is the 25% WHT to erode the income further. I think share price will remain the same territory until the move is complete but I do hope I am wrong. No mention of any further buybacks either.

They've already commented on the expected dividend 37.4c/share is expected

No surprise I could tell you were shorter. Most have the usual signs of uninformed negative sentiment ignoring value even if it smacked them in the face. For example "Having sold their oil portfolio it makes it even less attractive. " And that is just more nonsense I'm afraid to mention. CNA have already outlined their strategy on this point in line with an industry trend (SSE are doing the same) to move to greener energy upstream.

"In line with our strategy to decarbonise the portfolio and reduce our exposure to oil and gas production, we have committed not to explore for new hydrocarbon reserves, instead focusing on ensuring we can fund our decommissioning liabilities while pursuing opportunities to leverage existing infrastructure to promo energy security and help the UK on its path to net zero."

But they continue to hold oil in storage and they reported 45M barrels of stock during 2023 annual report. If you want to trade oil my advice would be trade Shell/BP like I currently doing quite well on also.

All the best with your cash holding and I hope you've beaten the inflation target for the financial year plus some. Its been a great interaction as it has helped me to reinforce my view of value at these levels for a long term investment.

My CNA investment has already paid for itself and am happy to continue to hold and take the income for the time being. Good luck on your short term play though I hope you achieve what you are after.

2023 was a bumper year and as stated in the report wrt future earnings "We expect to deliver around £800m of sustainable adjusted operating profit on average each year from Retail and Optimisation by 2026, underpinned by continuous improvement in operational performance which will drive customer retention and growth. We also expect to deliver further strong cash flows from Infrastructure over the medium-term."

This ties in with the broker forecast that I've seen for expected eps 2024E and 2025E but notably excludes the buybacks. Even at today's share price the p/e would be roughly 7x and far short of the 30x SSE trade at today. But we'll learn more during half year results as to whether they revise 2024E earnings and increase in dividend progressing to the 2x cover (currently it is 4x) as promised. Also they didn't ruled out further capital returns via buybacks. To me this is key to a full share price recovery. Its not that long ago Centrica were a recovery play and shareholders lost faith due to expected earnings consistency and the "Conn" man at the helm.

On your "Multiples" point I think I answered that already. But to add do you think if someone was sniffing to buy CNA they would pay todays price?

When SSE traded at 1600p which (30x eps reported in 2023) RBC cut SSE's share price from 2,050p to 1,950p and reiterated its "outperform" (August 2023). A 20% uplift on today's SSE share price. Yet CNA which trades at 2x eps reported in 2023 results has been downgraded to a "perform" and strangely upgraded their share price recommendation by only 3%. I am merely pointing out the 'R'oyal 'B'rokerage of 'C'lowns don't know their a*se from their elbow. I hope you don't pay for their advice Delta.

"RBC cuts Centrica to 'sector perform' (outperform) - price target 145 (140) pence"

So the clowns downgrade their view but upgrade share price estimation.

I agree energy sourcing is a transitional play. I quite liked your tea leaves on the share price predictions

I've seen it too many times before. They bring the share price down intentionally so share holders will bite the hands off any bidder proposing a miserly undervalued offer.

I have so many questions - Isnt their upstream strategy aligned with industry and political goals to move to a greener agenda? Arent they investing 800M in in this area? "Fossil fuels" are here for the foreseeable future and that outlook wont change short term since greener energy will take time, money and a change of customer attitudes. So why investing in gas storage (when energy security is a political topic) is not a good bet? When you talk of growing the business shouldn't that focus be on numbers of retail customers are sustainable? Energy provided by top 6 suppliers is 70% and of that market British gas have the lion share of 20%. Most end customers are still focussed on price and consistency of energy supply not how it is sourced.

Some stats for you in the meantime:

https://www.uswitch.com/gas-electricity/studies/energy-statistics/

Yeah saw that. but there are 2 trades of that amount. Do you think that is a buy sell?

Change your graph to 5 year GBP/therm follows the same trend. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1174560/average-monthly-gas-prices-uk/ Pricing forecast remains the same for the UK.

Just to name a few talking points to consider when qualifying your argument:

- Gas prices declined from their high since August 2022.

- The energy price cap set by ofgem in that period: https://heatable.co.uk/boiler-advice/history-of-ofgems-energy-price-cap

- And current price cap: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-price-cap

- Forecast of price cap: https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605440/will-energy-prices-go-down

- In terms of wholesale gas prices: US IEA say the natural gas spot price is expected to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023 but will stabilise.

- British Gas retail residential remained broadly flat but small business customers have increased by 15% year on year.

- The average forecast of 800M sustainable operating profit quoted for Retail and Optimisation excludes Infrastructure.

@thanglan - I am not sure of your reasons for investing here but its a safe bet long term than trading daily share price movements. As you say its hard to pick the top and bottom. I don't think bankboy would be buying in even at suppressed share price levels unless he felt it would achieve another meteoric rise in share price. Yes the derivatives market contributes to the market gambling attitude and the casino of the city is all about short term money making. They have clients to please. But they will be back with the same attitude year on year to make more money. Similarly I bought into this stock at 35p and I have sold and rebought again along the way when I learn more of the future prospects of the company. I never intend to get bottom or top and very rarely achieve that. In principle its no different though.

This stock is currently trading above its book value. What it suggests is the market values the company higher than what is stated on its balance sheet. Investors believe that the company's future earnings, growth potential, brand value, market share, or other intangible assets contribute significantly to its overall worth. These factors are not reflected in the book value, which mainly includes tangible assets and liabilities only. Its often seen as having strong fundamentals and growth prospects, attracting investors seeking future potential rather than current asset value. Fundamentals for dividend income look very strong. All the major brokers have reiterated a share price at least another 25%-50% above these levels.

Also have a read of what JP Morgan said yesterday. Good luck with your investment

Unfortunately Kenmare's guidance for primary zircon 45,000-50,000 tonnes and continues to decline year-on-year due to lower recoveries.

"Primary zircon production was 51,100 tonnes in 2023, a 13% decrease compared to 2022 (58,400 tonnes). This was the product of reduced HMC processed and lower recoveries."

Could this change however when the move is completed to Nataka? But by this time prices may have stabilised or declined from historic highs.

Marshall Wace LLP. What amuses me mostly is their lackies' attempt to create negativity in the hope they ward off investors and clear out weak hands.

Funniest thing I've read.

"We see scope for further cash return through share buyback, supported by further improvements that we anticipate in Centrica's net cash position to over £3.0bn by FY24," said Citi.

Citi also noted that market participants' main concern was on its underlying net cash position. However, it highlighted that these concerns were potentially "misplaced", as it said any adjustment for customer money should also be accompanied by receivables owed to Centrica - a net addition to the cash position.

More from Jefferies here:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1036507/centrica-gets-downgrade-as-jefferies-suggests-peak-reached-1036507.html

But note they have raised SSE to a buy rating. SSE trades at 10 times future earnings whereas CNA only 4. I'll let you make of that what you will

Https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2024/02/17/banker-kenmare-hired-decade-ago-to-thwart-takeover-holds-key-as-some-investors-seek-sale/