The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
I remember the opportunistic iluka offer. I am starting to wonder whether this is being worked for another one of those "opportunistic" bids. There were few large trades executed today. Would be interested to see what happens in the auction today and what is reported out of hours.
I very much doubt a 400-500p bid would do it since that is less than half the current book value per share. I think more around 700p or 680M
Hannan & Partners have revised volumes downward by 30% against the previous forecast for 2025E. Are you suggesting they've only been made aware of the material impact of the move? The surprising bit was the forecast of 2025E cost of sales which has been revised upward by 20% and exceeds than 2023E where greater volumes are produced.
Consequently they are revised down dividend to 18c/share from previous 36c/share.
"KMR announced that demand for its products remained high at the end of 2023, just not high enough to support a more solid price. However, with these lower prices, we note titanium pigment feedstock supply has been flat with little resource expansion to cover the medium-term and long-term. The largest source of new supply has been from increased ilmenite concentrates entering China where the preference has been to purchase ilmenite for beneficiation over the more expensive high-grade feedstocks. This demand was felt by KMR in H2’23. These challenges for the pigment producers led to reduced pigment inventories and as such 2024 will require inventories to be resupplied. We expect this to support demand as supply gets impacted by the prices. KMR has achieved a strong order book in Q1, however this is at reduced prices QoQ. Overall, we expect lower realised prices for KMR’s products in 2024 than in 2023; we assume a 12% reduction in revenue/t shipped. "
2025E projections were a little surprising for me! It suggests there will be a considerable decline in dividend in coming years.
Here's hoping the drop in share price is likely due to the state of markets being crazy at the moment. Most investors are probably fearing war or a recession and prefer to stay in cash until there is more certainty on commodity trading. But I second your opinion on management @raxfactor. They are hard pushed to comment on the future positively which has has likely influenced share price decline since their last update. For me a 12% yield is not to be scoffed at! Once the move is done I am hoping there will be more in the kitty for shareholder distribution. I doubt we will get a buyout at this stage of the cycle and particularly with the planned move.
@contango always do like it when you are posting even if you are slightly more negative. It reminds me that there are still investors in the game here. I agree with you its a quality asset and the share price makes it very tempting to buy more. gla and here is hoping tomorrow is a better day
For what its worth, historically, over the past few years the share price dipped in first weeks of January and then went on to post a rise of around 10-15% in time for reporting Q4/EOY in February.
The article supports my view that the dividend will be increased this coming financial year which should put a higher floor on the share price. Good luck catching the bottom. Even at these prices it still cheap imo.
"meaningless - a notional valuation based on what stake holders have pumped into it."
SSE has a market cap of £20B P/E 34, E.ON €32B P/E of 13.
"I am sure many Centrica shareholders would say that based on certain metrics, the value of Centrica should be £16 Billion."
I tend to agree with you. CNA has a current market cap of £7B and P/E 1.9. At a market cap of £16B the share price and P/E is roughly £2.90/share and 4, respectively. In 2013 the share price reached an all time high of £4/share.
Its why I hold since 38p. The market will rerate the price massively when it wakes up to it being thoroughly undervalued.
Have you read the labour clean energy plan ? It makes fanciful reading. Particularly the timescales. It currently takes around 13 years to develop a new offshore wind farm. Longer for nuclear. I am sure they will reduce the red tape for planning approval. But development timescales cannot be shortened in time to meet 2030 objectives. A new public owned GB energy will do all this alone? I doubt it! Most likely the private sector will be incentivised to invest in cleaner energy as well. Centrica have already stated their objective is cleaner energy going forward and we will invest between £600m - £800m a year until 2028 in renewable generation, security of supply, and customers.
Although Labour's plan is vague on any detail they do mention untapping finances from investment firms and pension funds to setup a national wealth fund. Not sure what the role of the UK infrastructure bank will be therefore.
"Labour will allocate a fund of up to £500m for each of its first five years to provide capital grants to incentivise companies developing clean technologies like offshore wind, onshore wind, solar, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage, to target their investment particularly at the areas that most need it, so that as we take on the climate crisis we also build a fairer, more prosperous country."
Then there the bit on Oil and Gas...
Labour and the country value the contribution of all those working in energy, including oil and gas, to powering the UK now and into the future. That is why, as part of our approach, Labour will ensure a phased and responsible transition in the North Sea, partnering with business and workers to manage our existing fields for the entirety of their lifespan. As the North Sea Transition Authority (NTSA) itself indicates, oil and gas production in the North Sea will be with us for decades to come. The charts below show that the significant majority of proven gas in the North Sea lies in existing fields. In the case of oil, there are more potential new fields, but 80 per cent of our oil production is exported abroad.
So nothing changes in the short to medium term in summary. It would be interesting to see how long Labour are in power for.