Rainbow Rare Earths sees competitive advantage in new separation technology for Phalaborwa project. Watch the full video here.
Imstaying - some of my thoughts below.
I believe we are on a long term surge. While the world has been on a path towards renewables for a considerbale time (eg 30+ years in wind turbines and solar panels) things have changed. We have crossed a number of important tipping points and the cumulative impacts take green energy - as distinct from renewable electricity - to a different place.
The first is the 'climate emergency' - governments across the globe believe it and it scares a lot of them badly eg China (1) facing massive water shortages as Himalyan glaciers melt and (2) has the most densly populated coastal areas on the planet facing rising sea levels. There are scores of other really big examples of 'at risk' of large scale catastrophic economic damage. So there is now a real global market for green technologies and governments that will drive strategies hard to implement the new technologies. For example look at the rate of change of UK attitiude to petrol/diesel cars and domestic heating boilers.
Second is the technology in that (a) it exists on a wide scale and is developing fast on a wide array of technologies and applications (b) solar ane wind turbine expeince evidences that large scale adoption does drive the prices down (c) as it has moved from university labs and smallish companies it has real scale and the large players involved can support the levels of investment in innovation, development and production.
Third is chance and Covid. I think that goverments (and citizens) across the globe are recognising the covid experince as a 'near miss'. Near misses are huge learning experinces that accelerate behaviour change and that is what we are seeing now.
Across the globe governments and consumers want to change their behaviour in 'green'. They want to change it on a large scale, they want to change it quickly and sustainably, They also want to make the best economic opportunity out of these changes in terms of industies grown and jobs created, the innovation and intellectual property created and increasingly the international 'green points' bragging rights competition.
So in summary -
The green 'revolution' is now widley held as being desirable.
Technically much of it is now possible.
Making it doable is now just about engineering and systems and putting the bits togather in deliverable solutions.
There is no stopping it now so this is a long term surge.
I hope that CWR continue to surf that trend
So where will the Rolls Royce mini reactors go? On every existing Magox and subsequent generation site. Secure sites already connected to the transmission grid. Ideal for economic additions to base load while the UK transforms to the post carbon economy.
Unhappily this is too little and way ,way, way too late. The important steps in development of the wind power industry were taking place 30 years ago. In that timeframe UK govt energy policy was all around nuclear and coal (gas did not need a policy as it is was pouring out of the North Sea).
At that time there were a few UK companies (Howdens) building complete turbines and selling them in California. Most of the rest of the market was dominated by Vestas. Understanding how Vestas got to be a global player sets out the blueprint for the array of government policy initiatives needed to take a material role in the development of a new industry such as wind power.
At that time the UK did not have an energy 'problem' so it did not need a response . Denmark on the other hand........ Unhappily the UK has repeated the same pattern of errors in offshore wind energy (despite huge experience from the offshore oil industry and did (is doing) the same thing again with wave energy.
I am sure there are some on here who know more about the history of fuel cell development in UK universities and happily we have a few enterprises emerging. Are we a world leading player that will be dominating this globally in 20 years time - history says not, but we will have good 'small parts' of the 'big machine'.
A really big difference now is the role of China in targeting future-critical industries and putting together all the bits that you need to make it happen. Solar panels is probably the most relevant example, though they also have massive capacity in wind turbine manufacture as well.
Sorry bit of a rant here but the 'righteous indignation' from governments of "they should make more of that here" is a clear evidence of the failure of that same government to have a credible industrial policy development and implementation machine. Short term whining does not excuse the lack of long term thinking.
(I was working for an industrial clutch and brake company in the midlands in the very early 1980s . One of my jobs was in market research , one of the projects was wind turbines.)
I agree that this share will bounce up and down a bit.......howe ver.
Covid is having a huge impact on a number of major strands in global policy thinking - energy and carbon being one of the most significant. Digitialisation is the other really big one.
McKinsey consultants are running (heavy volume) daily adverts on CNBC tv along the lines of "digitalisation has moved five years forward in the last three months".
Now even allowing for a bit of hype that feels correct.
I believe the same is happening in the application of green technologies for a lower carbon economy. We are right in the middle of that and we a re a long way from being a 'very interesting but very small' type of business. We are substantial and have some seriously 'grown-up' corporate partners.
I have made a good few quid trading in and out of this share and am happy. I have also done an analysis of what it would be worth as an investment hold through the last 9 months. You can guess the result....
For me this is now a hold and forget share. It is going only one way and quickly or slowly, with lumps and bumps, that is upwards.
This is my only single company green tech hold but i also have INRG as a much more diversified (technology and geography) ETF holding along side it. I made the some of same errors in trading in and out of that too ! Not any more for either.
justdeezerts - so I lauded RR as an investment ? You mean like this.....
"The company will not be allowed to fail or be sold. That does not mean it is going to have a good share price for some time, just that it will not go bust".
"so am a lot less than pleased with how things are".
"I fear RR will be a long and slow climb"
I am certain that hundreds, nay thousands, leapt upon this extravagant and gushing praise of the RR investment opportunity. I offer abject apologies to each and every one of them - don't expect there will be many takers.
There is nothing laudable about lying or misrepresenting or, in the absence of facts, just making things up. Perhaps accountants see themselves as exempt?
There are indeed some maintenance jobs but he numbers are small. Not certain but i read recently that there are about 1900 people directly employed in windfarm support work in Scotland.....and there are a lot of very large windfarms there.
There was an article in the Scottish press this week about trying to get people falling out of offshore oil and gas into windfarm maintenance. Problem is the money - much less - and much narrower scope of work complexity (in their eyes).
on the upside the apprentices you suggest will have a secure job for many years to come as even after a 20-25 year life the turbines will be replaced with larger/superior models. This has just started in a couple of off-shore farms in this part of the world.
There is a history in this. If you google Burger Hill in Shetland you will find it was the UK govt test site for wind turbines. Have a look at when it SHUT DOWN. Govt just lost interest. For a long time wind was too expensive and UK still had lots of coal and nuclear for base load. It was never seen as strategic until too late and well after companies like Vestas and Seimens were well down the road. Vestas (Denmark) is a really intersting example of goverment support to a new industry that met a Danish need and that was seen as a major opportunity for exports of a developing technology. They got in early i n the USA /California market which is where the first big spending got going.
A UK firm called Howdens got involved in the California market. They used to make massive extraction fans for the UK coal mining industry and got involved as a wind turbine is (similar to) the same process in reverse. However the engineering and manufacturing of the (considerably bigger) wind turbine blades defeated them and they lost a bucket load of money.
As there was no UK govt interest in the industry at that time , there was not the types of support eg funding university collaborations that you find.
All way way too little too late for a UK industry to be created now. We will just buy the stuff in and get a few scraps in minor subcontacts .....look at the subsidy/grants we give people like Seimens to blade manufacturing plant here. Better than nothing but a tiny fraction of the many tens of billions being spent for kit in UK waters.
(As you might gather this really ****es me off lol)
Disagree with you on this one. The big offshore windfarms will be built with private money eg big pension funds as it is low risk and investment (well proven technologies mow) and guaranteed income streams for 20-25 years.
The Boris fantasy element is that it will create lots of jobs in the UK. That boat has sailed and there is not a single major UK company in the wind turbine business. I live in Scotland and we have been getting the 'saudi arabia of renewables' *******s for years. The actual economic impact so far is pitiful and that will continue. The offshore power business is driven by no-uk owned generators purchasing billions dollar contracts from ono uk contractors who buy the kit from wherever in the world they get the best stuff eg Siemens, Vetsas and a pile of other non-uk companies. Next to none of it is bought in the uk except a few subsidiary plants on the east coast.
1. almost all employment opportunities are non-uk
2. almost all profits generated are non-UK
BUT there are displacing carbon and they do look nice !
I think you are right that hydrogen adoption may be faster than previously thought but it will be in niches at first eg commercial vehicles, trains. It will take time to build a 'public' infrastructure but this will not slow things meaningfully.