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Toneman
I have just been looking up the short positions on Plug - just out of curiosity.
30/6/22. 12.8%. $16.57 per share
31/7/22. 13.7%. $21.34 per share
As I write $28.91 per share.
Makes you wonder. Funds shorting seem to be attributed as having superpowers. Perhaps they are more like sophisticated gamblers. Sometimes they get it wrong. Charts are a good tool but recognising what else is going on in the world is important.
Positions were increasing at a time the Biden bill was going through Congress/Senate? Huge stimulus for the industry and they were increasing short positions. Maybe they think Plus are all crooks and the price will fail. In the words of the great Kenny Dalgleish……. Maybes aye and maybes naw.
Is this a big enough reason - courtesy of a poster on ADVFN
I consider it a possibility for the planning reapplication for several reasons relating to events since the original GF2 / GF3 plans were announced.
1. the energy war in Europe starting 24 Feb
2, the impacts of that war in USA and the rest of the globe, including massive state funding to accelerate H2 production everywhere.
That means, since 24/2/22, there is previously unimaginable acceleration in
1. Scale of demand - exponential growth
2. Timing of demand - everything is now wanted yesterday, and the impact of fuel costs is making the situation more politically intense.
So for ITM ?
GF2 is designed to make 5GW stacks using highly mechanised production systems. GF2 is to be the model for GF3 (and all subsequent GFs). As the market now wants more and faster, it makes much more sense to build the main GF2 building bigger immediately. That will enable higher and faster scale output. Certainly much faster than waiting for GF3 to come on stream.
Building a bigger shed now requires marginally more cash spend in the next 12 months rather than 24-36 months from now. The money is in the bank; we just spend it earlier.
One time only build is massively less expensive and disruptive than extending an established site that is full of sophisticated and delicate equipment.
If they doubled the planned capacity then the space is there to equip, even if there was a lag in procuring the plant and equipment. Still easier to commission and get into production. Much faster than waiting for GF3.
Just some thoughts on what I would be doing in response to the changes since 24 Feb and given the money is in the bank to deliver it. It is ballsy but very sensible if you and Linde read the changed market right.
https://democracy.sheffield.gov.uk/documents/b26070/Planning%20Applications%20-%20Supplementary%20Information%20Tuesday%2009-Aug-2022%2014.00%20Planning%20and%20Highways%20.pdf?T=9
2. Application Number: 22/01205/FUL
Address: University of Sheffield, Innovation District, Sheffield S9 1XU
At the request of the applicant, this application is not being considered at this
meeting as they wish to make design amendments to the scheme prior to a
decision being issued.
We are now close to 10p above our recent low.
Makes me wonder when Brontë might close their short. A lot of profit has dribbled away in the last two months. Guess they are betting on a complete collapse in the price ?
You wonder how much of the content of those documents has been completely negated by the increase in gas prices post Feb 22 invasion of Ukraine.
One thing for sure the Scottish Govt will not be stepping up to replace the proposed UK Govt funding. They are seriously skint - and that was before the inflation impacts on public sector wages we are about to witness.
Kam
Indeed, good to see a rise. Interesting to see when our shooters decide to exit their position.
1 The US energy bill looks nailed on now so US sector players will jump today as that constraint is gone.
2 Also in US the market drop on tech/not currently profitable growth companies is slowing and may possibly have bottomed, suggest next step would be a reversal. May be slow but will be a steady recovery.
3. The Ukraine war and EU response to the ‘energy war’ already sees massive expenditure commitments being made and execution will be done at hyper speed
Three systemic changes that have positive and sustainable impacts on hydrogen businesses.
Perhaps our shorts will take their profits and switch to long quite soon. Maybe very soon.
This is not a problem for ITM as we are not doing much (anything?) in the USA.
Might be a massive problem for Plug if their US market deflates significantly. Also the sharp increases in the value of the Dollar re sterling and the Euro gives all US suppliers a very big currency problem as their prices are soaring. Alternatively they suck it up and their losses soar. The former is more likely. Can’t see how that would be a problem for ITM.
Maybe a bit of balance required on ‘testing again’ comments.
The article did NOT say what ITM motive are going to be doing with the cash. Maybe we should wait to find out before throwing eggs. Same things said here after the Gigastack award - but actually turns out to be cash to accelerate the work. Let’s see what it is for.
More broadly there are a lot of things that the government needs to have a much more detailed understanding of to make sure H2 rolls out widely. Janet and John public are not all going to leap into this without reassurance that is is all safe.
Have a look at what is happening to our planning application for Whitelee. That site is in the middle of nowhere. There are half a dozen houses within 2 miles of it………… but we remain at a standstill due to their objections. If this carries on the only sensible place to build an electrolyser facility will be within an existing petrochemical complex where current permits exist.
We are shareholders here so know a fair bit about H2.
That makes us a very tiny minority of the public.
Toneman
An excellent video that gives the real scope and scale of travel without any bullsh*t. Senior people talking about a big project pipeline. Who knows what is all in their leads list now, especially since Feb 24th.
Linde are not involved in Oyster or Gigastack, hence no mention. Nice reminder that ITM are not solely a Linde sub-contractor.
Do we know what the value of the RR investment is?
I am asking is this a big buck , strategic commitment or a dabble in something that they think might be interesting in the future?
Why would they buy a PEM company in relation to SMRs ? PEM enables rapid shift capture of energy for wind turbine/ solar output that bounce up and down on a minute by minute basis. I hope to heaven our SMRs are not doing that.
I would like to know what the thinking is behind this ( large or small) investment.
Particularly useful in Scandinavia where district heating systems have been the norm for decades. Simple, clever and appropriate for the application. Will be very interesting to see where else this becomes the best battery solution. An excellent indicator of the potential for a range of storage solutions that might emerge as we go forward
Haggis
Your comments suggest you know little about the engineering industry, how it works and how it thinks.
The web pages are riven with errors and poor quality writing, page after page after page.
That evidences a wholesale failure in, or complete absence of, a functioning quality management process in a business.
That, Mr Haggis is something engineers care a very great deal about when looking at a business with a potential to purchase something.