Member Info for Teddy100

Boots on the ground is looking very likely, at least the island. The main unit won’t be arriving for a week or two, so at least there is time for some jaw jaw.

Barratt is down 9%, it is not personal, the UK is suffering the most from this fall out, the 2-year bond is worrying.

The market is pricing in WW3 by the looks, absolute madness.

As do I, IAG jumped up 45%.

Always remember folks that it is psychology that shapes the investment cycle. PI’s were clambering to buy this three weeks ago when it dropped below 1200p and here we are another 25% down. This could see the 700’s but it is more likely we will see 1400p. As a very wise man said to me many years ago, if you can’t suck in paper losses, don’t invest. If I thought this would go to the 7’s I would sell and I have a lot. That one word of peace and Straits opening and it will be another Monday the 9th of November 2020. GLA.

Definitely going to break 350p.

Fear.

Both feet at 350p.

Definitely someone leaning into this, look at that UT. Either a short unwinding or someone topping up.

That story broke yesterday, stupidly SAS had virtually zero hedges and compounded with their load factor have made the decision to cancel flights.

Topped up again, I hope this is the bottom.

I was about to buy more, but it looks to be on a tear.

It is not personal to WPP, ME nerves jumping into cash, compounded with WPP having a high free float.

Definitely someone leaning into it, with Brent closing in on €109 I am surprised it hasn’t dropped more.

I think it is going to be another blue day, Oil dropping.

Oil at $100 a barrel doesn’t cause that much pain for Wizz, they are hedged and will be rolling those out day by day. Most of Wizz’s flights are short haul and an increase in ticket prices of $5 to $10 will not cause that much pain. This is what the markets are pricing in.

Nice UT, always a good indicator for positive bias. The December contract is less than $82 and as long as Oil kicks around this price we should gravitate North. Once the news comes that the straits are open it will bounce a minimum of 20%.

The UAE can also pump oil without going through the Straits as well, the Fujairah pipeline so tankers don’t have to go through. That is why the Iranians are firing missiles at it, capacity is only 1.5 Mil barrels a day. A standard container VLCC can hold 2 Million barrels, hence 40 of them going through is 80 Million barrels, big numbers.

Just heard on Bloomberg that the Saudis have ramped up to 5 Mil barrels a day on the pipeline. Will Kennedy is one of the best Oil analysts around.

The East West pipe lane was built over 40 years ago and with revisions about 15 years ago the capacity was increased to 7Million barrels a day maximum. The flashpoint on the Straits has been going on for decades and the Saudis were savvy enough to foresee that. The issue is that when the Oil gets to Yanbu (Red Sea) they can only load 3 million barrels a day. Up until the crisis they were putting through 2.5 Mil barrels a day so the extra take up is insignificant. It helps, but I am afraid it will not negate the problem. Them Straits need to get opened, especially if you hold Wizz air shares.